Bangladesh’s next general election is to be held on January 7. Although a formal victory by the incumbent government is widely regarded as a foregone conclusion, the fact that the integrity of the polls is already being viewed with considerable scepticism at home and abroad reduces the chances they will deliver the legitimacy or economic stability the government seeks.
Instead, both are likely to be degraded by the intensifying, multi-sided struggle to set the rules of how its political system operates going forward. That is bad news for Bangladeshis, but also its neighbours – especially India.
Bangladesh came into existence more than 50 years ago after seceding from Pakistan following a traumatic civil war in which India intervened, cautiously at first, then decisively.
A highly innovative, world-class NGO sector, working with communities, laid the foundation for sustainable growth while overcoming devastation from war and weather-driven natural disasters. More recently, Bangladesh has emerged as one of the world’s leading readymade garment producers, and this supercharged national growth over the past decade or so, at least until the Ukraine war’s economic impact pushed the economy into crisis.
Bangladesh’s recovery from the economic wounds of civil war sadly has not been matched by progress in the political sphere. The deep divisions that emerged during and after the brutal war of liberation have never been addressed through a process of dialogue or reconciliation. As a result, Bangladeshi politics has remained a zero-sum affair, with the threat of chaotic violence lying just below the surface of everyday normality.
The period from 1975 to 1990 was a series of often bloody coups and counter-coups between factions within Bangladesh’s military. Democratisation broke that cycle, and instead produced a regular alternation between the Awami League (AL) and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Unfortunately, the transfers of power were typically followed by legal harassment and suppression of the outgoing party.
Although both parties play up their ideological differences over the place of religion in national identity, they are both heirs to the armed movement to secede from Pakistan. Their bitter differences go beyond ideology, to a highly personal struggle between two political dynasties – and their hangers-on – who have both endured assassinations and imprisonment by their opponents.
The fact the integrity of the polls is already being viewed with scepticism reduces the chances they will deliver stability
The AL gained the upper hand in 2011 when it eliminated the constitutional requirement that elections be overseen by a neutral caretaker government. As a result, it has never lost an election since. The BNP and the combined opposition’s struggle go beyond winning the election in January, and instead are focused on forcing Sheikh Hasina’s government to reverse this change and restore the practice of caretaker-supervised polls.
Much of the BNP’s leadership has been arrested in recent months, but despite this, it appears to be widening and deepening its campaign. The BNP has announced a boycott of the elections and 13 other parties have made a similar pledge. Given the erosion of judicial and media independence over the past decade, and the security forces’ increased willingness to use force, the usual forms of protest simply do not work.
So instead of legal petitions and demonstrations, the opposition has instead organised a series of blockades of transport, especially around its major cities such as Dhaka and Chittagong. They appear to have significantly affected supply chains from the industrial level down to the vegetable markets, creating shortages and driving prices up. This suggests a high level of compliance, which in turn raises a major question mark over the level of public confidence that the government commands. The opposition alliance is now calling for an escalation to a larger programme of civil disobedience, including refusal to pay taxes and utility bills.
The past two elections were judged by international and domestic observers as flawed, and every indication is that January’s vote is likely to suffer from the same defects. As a result, the EU has declined to even deploy election monitors. Given these conditions, it is unlikely that the opposition campaign will end on January 7, regardless of the official election commission results. Instead, the opposition is likely to maintain pressure and bring international attention to the government’s policies.
The UN Human Rights Council, as well as the US and EU (two of Bangladesh’s largest export destinations), have already begun to express their alarm over alleged extrajudicial killings and abductions by shadowy pro-government elements.
Most consequentially of all, Bangladesh is in close consultation with the International Monetary Fund, which agreed to lend $4.7 billion to ease the crisis triggered by the Ukraine war. Any impact from unrest on fundamentals such as inflation, exports and investment would inevitably bring pressure from international lenders for a political settlement to restore international lenders’ confidence in the country’s future stability, which the opposition hopes would mean more space for their demands.
Part of the increased western attention towards Bangladesh stems from the increased engagement with the countries of the Indo-Pacific as relations between the West and China have deteriorated. Although the cornerstone of this effort has been the deepening strategic partnership between the US and India, the question of what to do about the current government has been a place of divergence rather than convergence.
Indian governments going back to Indira Gandhi in 1971 chose to largely invest in ties with the AL, even when it declared Bangladesh a one-party state in 1975. The administration of US President Joe Biden, on the other hand, is committed to encouraging a zone of shared political values in the Indo-Pacific. Regardless of these differences, however, both Washington and New Delhi share a strong mutual interest in stability and growth in the region.
There is a widespread public belief, which the IMF shares, that the inadequate management of state finances and the banking and energy sectors over the past decade was responsible for leaving a booming economy vulnerable to recent global shocks. The apparent lack of transparent and competitive politics appears to have played a part in producing the current level of dysfunction.
Without adequate governance reforms, Bangladesh’s economy could continue to falter, with possible regional spill-over. Large sections of the country’s enormous workforce, comprised of about 74 million people, faces displacement pressures from climate change. A number of them may start looking for alternatives, wherever they can find them, especially next door in India.
The international community, including India, has the leverage to encourage the reforms that will allow peaceful transfers of power in Bangladesh, and set up the country for sustained economic success that will benefit the region and the world.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Details
Through Her Lens: The stories behind the photography of Eva Sereny
Forewords by Jacqueline Bisset and Charlotte Rampling, ACC Art Books
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
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The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
How to avoid crypto fraud
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GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
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Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
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Jetour T1 specs
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WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
The five stages of early child’s play
From Dubai-based clinical psychologist Daniella Salazar:
1. Solitary Play: This is where Infants and toddlers start to play on their own without seeming to notice the people around them. This is the beginning of play.
2. Onlooker play: This occurs where the toddler enjoys watching other people play. There doesn’t necessarily need to be any effort to begin play. They are learning how to imitate behaviours from others. This type of play may also appear in children who are more shy and introverted.
3. Parallel Play: This generally starts when children begin playing side-by-side without any interaction. Even though they aren’t physically interacting they are paying attention to each other. This is the beginning of the desire to be with other children.
4. Associative Play: At around age four or five, children become more interested in each other than in toys and begin to interact more. In this stage children start asking questions and talking about the different activities they are engaging in. They realise they have similar goals in play such as building a tower or playing with cars.
5. Social Play: In this stage children are starting to socialise more. They begin to share ideas and follow certain rules in a game. They slowly learn the definition of teamwork. They get to engage in basic social skills and interests begin to lead social interactions.
Batti Gul Meter Chalu
Producers: KRTI Productions, T-Series
Director: Sree Narayan Singh
Cast: Shahid Kapoor, Shraddha Kapoor, Divyenndu Sharma, Yami Gautam
Rating: 2/5
Suggested picnic spots
Abu Dhabi
Umm Al Emarat Park
Yas Gateway Park
Delma Park
Al Bateen beach
Saadiyaat beach
The Corniche
Zayed Sports City
Dubai
Kite Beach
Zabeel Park
Al Nahda Pond Park
Mushrif Park
Safa Park
Al Mamzar Beach Park
Al Qudrah Lakes
The specs
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Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
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Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
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Price: From Dh117,059
What is graphene?
Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms arranged like honeycomb.
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were "playing about" with sticky tape and graphite - the material used as "lead" in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But as they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment had led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
At the time, many believed it was impossible for such thin crystalline materials to be stable. But examined under a microscope, the material remained stable, and when tested was found to have incredible properties.
It is many times times stronger than steel, yet incredibly lightweight and flexible. It is electrically and thermally conductive but also transparent. The world's first 2D material, it is one million times thinner than the diameter of a single human hair.
But the 'sticky tape' method would not work on an industrial scale. Since then, scientists have been working on manufacturing graphene, to make use of its incredible properties.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics. Their discovery meant physicists could study a new class of two-dimensional materials with unique properties.
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Slow loris biog
From: Lonely Loris is a Sunda slow loris, one of nine species of the animal native to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore
Status: Critically endangered, and listed as vulnerable on the International Union for Conservation of Nature red list due to growing demand in the global exotic pet trade. It is one of the most popular primate species found at Indonesian pet markets
Likes: Sleeping, which they do for up to 18 hours a day. When they are awake, they like to eat fruit, insects, small birds and reptiles and some types of vegetation
Dislikes: Sunlight. Being a nocturnal animal, the slow loris wakes around sunset and is active throughout the night
Superpowers: His dangerous elbows. The slow loris’s doe eyes may make it look cute, but it is also deadly. The only known venomous primate, it hisses and clasps its paws and can produce a venom from its elbow that can cause anaphylactic shock and even death in humans
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.6-litre turbo
Transmission: six-speed automatic
Power: 165hp
Torque: 240Nm
Price: From Dh89,000 (Enjoy), Dh99,900 (Innovation)
On sale: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
If you go
The flights
There are various ways of getting to the southern Serengeti in Tanzania from the UAE. The exact route and airstrip depends on your overall trip itinerary and which camp you’re staying at.
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Kilimanjaro International Airport from Dh1,350 return, including taxes; this can be followed by a short flight from Kilimanjaro to the Serengeti with Coastal Aviation from about US$700 (Dh2,500) return, including taxes. Kenya Airways, Emirates and Etihad offer flights via Nairobi or Dar es Salaam.
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