A man inspects the rubble of a house destroyed in reported Israeli bombardment on December 13 in the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Kila on December 16. AFP
A man inspects the rubble of a house destroyed in reported Israeli bombardment on December 13 in the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Kila on December 16. AFP
A man inspects the rubble of a house destroyed in reported Israeli bombardment on December 13 in the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Kila on December 16. AFP
A man inspects the rubble of a house destroyed in reported Israeli bombardment on December 13 in the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Kila on December 16. AFP


Despite its warnings, Israel is unlikely to expand the Gaza war to Lebanon


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  • Arabic

December 20, 2023

Amid reports that the US has asked Israel to scale down the intensity of its attacks in Gaza, some of the attention has shifted to the Israeli northern front with Lebanon. Since October 7, Hezbollah and Israel have been engaged in a series of border skirmishes that have been relatively contained but which nonetheless have caused significant loss of life, with over 150 people killed, including combatants and civilians on both sides.

The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is wrestling with a significant problem in northern Israel. His government evacuated most of the population there to avoid a repeat by Hezbollah of the October 7 Hamas assault, and tens of thousands of Israelis are waiting to return to the north. However, they refuse to do so without safety guarantees.

Israel wants a demilitarisation of the border region on the Lebanese side, from which Hezbollah and its allies would withdraw to the Litani River. This, Hezbollah will not do, even though Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, calls for an area “free of any armed personnel” between the border and the Litani, except for the Lebanese army and UN forces in Lebanon.

Smoke billowing after Israeli bombardment around the southern Lebanese village of Aita Al Shaab, on December 18. AFP
Smoke billowing after Israeli bombardment around the southern Lebanese village of Aita Al Shaab, on December 18. AFP

Israeli officials have threatened to launch an attack against Lebanon and impose a solution to their liking. US officials have told the Huffington Post they are worried Israel is seeking US weaponry to expand the war to the north. While it would be foolish to assert this will not happen, there is a major obstacle preventing Israel from taking such a path.

The Biden administration rejects this option, believing that a new Lebanon war is more likely to expand into a regional conflagration than the Israel-Gaza war. In mid-November, there were reports the US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin had contacted his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, and, in “a direct and frank conversation” expressed “concerns” about Israel’s escalation on the Lebanese front, according to the informed journalist Barak Ravid.

Hezbollah does not want a final arrangement on the border that would deny it an excuse to keep up the military pressure on Israel

The coming year is an election year for US President Joe Biden. The last thing he needs is for his country to be caught up in another Middle East conflict. American voters are increasingly isolationist and strongly oppose US involvement in overseas wars. Mr Biden may feel, understandably, that a new regional war would sink his re-election chances.

To avert an explosion in Lebanon, the US sent an envoy, Amos Hochstein, to the region a few weeks ago. Mr Hochstein, a deputy assistant to Mr Biden, mediated the delineation of the maritime border between Israel and Lebanon last year. He has reportedly circulated a four-point plan to the Lebanese to calm the situation, one focused on delimiting the land border between Lebanon and Israel.

Amos Hochstein, left, meets Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati in Beirut, Lebanon in June last year. Reuters
Amos Hochstein, left, meets Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati in Beirut, Lebanon in June last year. Reuters

On its own, Mr Hochstein’s mission appears to indicate two things: Washington is keen to find a diplomatic way out of the Lebanese imbroglio, short of war; and, therefore, that rising Israeli threats may perhaps be more a dimension of Israel’s negotiating strategy than a clear intent to widen the Gaza war to Lebanon.

An implicit facet of Mr Hochstein’s proposal, if formalised, is that the negotiations for which he is calling are likely to extend beyond the time-frame of the Gaza conflict. In other words the envoy is buying time, and in that way, he may be aiming to lock the sides into talks that lower the prospects of a Lebanon war. He is said to believe that once the land border is agreed, Hezbollah’s justification for attacking Israel would be removed.

That is perhaps why such negotiations are likely to be difficult, if not impossible. Hezbollah does not want a final arrangement on the border that would deny it an excuse to keep up the military pressure on Israel, on behalf of its sponsor, Iran.

However, the party may also be in the mood for some sort of negotiation. The reason is simple: if no formal agreement ends the hostilities with Israel, the Israelis may take advantage of this to pursue their attacks in Lebanon and maintain a permanent state of tension on the border in order to impose a solution of their choosing.

Hezbollah made it clear again last week that it did not seek an expanded war in Lebanon. Hashem Safieddine, the head of the party’s executive council and the cousin of Hezbollah’s secretary general Hassan Nasrallah, is the one who underlined this. In other words, the assertion came from as close to the top as it could get.

Like Mr Hochstein, Hezbollah may also see negotiations as a way to avoid a conflict. Ultimately, it might choose to participate, but side step any final settlement on the border to keep its options open.

The party may have another reason for favouring negotiations. If Hezbollah can turn any of its concessions on the Israeli front into domestic gains in Lebanon, it might try to use the negotiations to secure regional and international endorsement for its favoured Lebanese presidential candidate, Suleiman Franjieh.

The weeks ahead will clarify the likelihood of war in Lebanon. But last week in Israel, the US National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, expressed Washington’s thinking unambiguously. He said a “negotiated outcome” was the best way to reassure Israel’s northern residents. The Hezbollah threat “can be dealt with through diplomacy and does not require the launching of a new war,” Mr Sullivan underlined.

Live updates: Follow the latest news on Israel-Gaza

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  • Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
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  • Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
  • Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
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Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching

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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Rating: 1 out of 4

Running time: 81 minutes

Director: David Blue Garcia

Starring: Sarah Yarkin, Elsie Fisher, Mark Burnham

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Novak Djokovic - elbow

Roger Federer - back

Stan Wawrinka - knee

Kei Nishikori - wrist

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Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem

Director: Joseph Kosinski

Rating: 4/5

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Starring: Sarah Geronimo, James Reid, Xian Lim, Nova Villa

3/5

(Tagalog with Eng/Ar subtitles)

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MATCH INFO

Fixture: Thailand v UAE, Tuesday, 4pm (UAE)

TV: Abu Dhabi Sports

FIXTURES

Monday, January 28
Iran v Japan, Hazza bin Zayed Stadium (6pm)

Tuesday, January 29
UAEv Qatar, Mohamed Bin Zayed Stadium (6pm)

Friday, February 1
Final, Zayed Sports City Stadium (6pm)

8 traditional Jamaican dishes to try at Kingston 21

  1. Trench Town Rock: Jamaican-style curry goat served in a pastry basket with a carrot and potato garnish
  2. Rock Steady Jerk Chicken: chicken marinated for 24 hours and slow-cooked on the grill
  3. Mento Oxtail: flavoured oxtail stewed for five hours with herbs
  4. Ackee and salt fish: the national dish of Jamaica makes for a hearty breakfast
  5. Jamaican porridge: another breakfast favourite, can be made with peanut, cornmeal, banana and plantain
  6. Jamaican beef patty: a pastry with ground beef filling
  7. Hellshire Pon di Beach: Fresh fish with pickles
  8. Out of Many: traditional sweet potato pudding
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Avengers 3: Infinity War: an American superhero film released in 2018 and based on the Marvel Comics story.  

Sholay: a 1975 Indian action-adventure film. It follows the adventures of two criminals hired by police to catch a vagabond. The film was panned on release but is now considered a classic.

Lucifer: is a 2019 Malayalam-language action film. It dives into the gritty world of Kerala’s politics and has become one of the highest-grossing Malayalam films of all time.

Company%20profile
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Pharaoh's curse

British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.

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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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UAE squad to face Ireland

Ahmed Raza (captain), Chirag Suri (vice-captain), Rohan Mustafa, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Boota, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Waheed Ahmad, Zawar Farid, CP Rizwaan, Aryan Lakra, Karthik Meiyappan, Alishan Sharafu, Basil Hameed, Kashif Daud, Adithya Shetty, Vriitya Aravind

Conflict, drought, famine

Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.

Band Aid

Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.

The specs
  • Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
  • Power: 640hp
  • Torque: 760nm
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  • Price: Not announced yet
The specs

AT4 Ultimate, as tested

Engine: 6.2-litre V8

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Torque: 623Nm

Transmission: 10-speed automatic

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OIL PLEDGE

At the start of Russia's invasion, IEA member countries held 1.5 billion barrels in public reserves and about 575 million barrels under obligations with industry, according to the agency's website. The two collective actions of the IEA this year of 62.7 million barrels, which was agreed on March 1, and this week's 120 million barrels amount to 9 per cent of total emergency reserves, it added.

Royal wedding inspired menu

Ginger, citrus and orange blossom iced tea

Avocado ranch dip with crudites

Cucumber, smoked salmon and cream cheese mini club sandwiches

Elderflower and lemon syllabub meringue

Updated: December 20, 2023, 4:00 AM`