When the US launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) in May 2022, along with Australia, Brunei, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, there were high expectations.
The US said it would “advance resilience, sustainability, inclusiveness, economic growth, fairness and competitiveness” and would “offer tangible benefits that fuel economic activity and investment, promote sustainable and inclusive economic growth, and benefit workers and consumers across the region”.
Between them, the IPEF partners represent 40 per cent of global gross domestic product and 28 per cent of global goods and services trade. Surely, with that heft, efforts would go into making what the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) describes as the Biden administration’s “first major trade initiative” a great success?
In San Francisco earlier this month, the leaders did indeed sign an agreement that marked some progress on three of the four “pillars”, relating to supply chains, the environment, improving transparency and fighting corruption. But no amount of ceremony and forced smiles could conceal why what the White House called “ground-breaking agreements” were dismissed by others as a “washout” or a “failure”.
For when it came to trade, the most important pillar, the US dropped plans to announce advances at the last minute – despite officials having reportedly told the other partners that they would be able to declare that some negotiations had been successfully wrapped up.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership was, in fact, supposed to be the centrepiece of Obama’s famous pivot to Asia but it never entered into force
The reason? The Biden administration came under pressure from Democrats in Congress, notably Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who are mindful of the damage they believe previous trade deals have done to American jobs and are fearful of the impact of any new ones – not least on their ability to retain their own seats as legislators. “I’ve made it very clear that the trade portion of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is unacceptable, and I’m glad it’s not moving forward,” Mr Brown told reporters after the signing.
To many, this is in danger of sounding like deja vu all over again.
In February 2016, the US signed up to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an ambitious trade agreement between 12 Pacific Rim countries that had been championed by then president Barack Obama. The TPP was, in fact, supposed to be the centrepiece of Mr Obama’s famous “pivot to Asia”. It never entered into force, however, as one of president Donald Trump’s first executive actions after taking office in January 2017 was to withdraw from the partnership – which then went ahead in a different form as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), just without the US.
Despite having been Mr Obama’s vice president, Mr Biden never evinced any interest in joining the CPTPP. IPEF was supposed to be his replacement, and an important plank in the US strategy of containing and reducing dependency on China in the region.
A polite way of describing the current state of affairs comes from the CFR’s Inu Manak, who wrote: “Without a more substantial trade component, the IPEF will likely be a missed opportunity to deepen economic ties across the Pacific.” John Murphy, senior vice president of the US Chamber of Commerce, put it more strongly: “Collapse of the IPEF trade pillar would deal a blow to US standing in the region,” he said. “To follow President Trump’s withdrawal from the TPP with President Biden’s capitulation on his own trade arrangement would be a dreadful setback for US leadership.”
Timing may well be an issue here. With Mr Trump almost certain to be the Republican candidate in next year’s presidential election, Mr Biden will not want to gift his opponent a trade deal that could be used to attack him. Neither would it be a happy outcome if IPEF’s trade pillar was finalised, only for a possibly re-elected President Trump to scrap the agreement shortly after returning to the Oval Office.
But it leaves IPEF woefully short on substance. Increased trade is what would give the agreement momentum and importance. Meanwhile, China has applied to join the CPTPP, and it is a member of the blockbuster Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which is already in effect and includes nearly all of East and South-East Asia as well as Australia and New Zealand. The US, of course, is not in that either.
As Bloomberg’s editors recently warned: “By turning its back [on the trade pillar of IPEF], the US stands to lose not just the economic benefits of closer co-operation on trade but also the geopolitical gains from restoring its leadership in setting rules and, above all, conducting itself as a consistent and reliable partner.”
Talk of the US “setting rules” will be viewed with greater suspicion than ever in much of the Asia-Pacific after Mr Biden’s near-unwavering support for Israel in the face of the horrendous number of deaths in Gaza. American soft power has been gravely weakened by Washington’s apparent indifference to Palestinian lives, and it would be a brave US official who dared turn up in Kuala Lumpur or Jakarta to lecture locals on democracy or “values”, for many years to come.
But this is a region that has long thrived on trade, the key factor that has seen so many of its countries transformed over the past few decades. US involvement in new pacts that aim to stimulate economic activity for all members would be widely welcomed – if they ever happen, that is.
A Malaysian defence analyst once gloomily remarked to me, in reference to US military and security guarantees: “The Americans always leave in the end.” When it comes to trade agreements, the US now seems to be in danger of convening the meeting, but then not showing up when it counts – and with IPEF, make that twice.
Brief scores:
Manchester City 3
Aguero 1', 44', 61'
Arsenal 1
Koscielny 11'
Man of the match: Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
More coverage from the Future Forum
The biog
Favourite books: 'Ruth Bader Ginsburg: A Life' by Jane D. Mathews and ‘The Moment of Lift’ by Melinda Gates
Favourite travel destination: Greece, a blend of ancient history and captivating nature. It always has given me a sense of joy, endless possibilities, positive energy and wonderful people that make you feel at home.
Favourite pastime: travelling and experiencing different cultures across the globe.
Favourite quote: “In the future, there will be no female leaders. There will just be leaders” - Sheryl Sandberg, COO of Facebook.
Favourite Movie: Mona Lisa Smile
Favourite Author: Kahlil Gibran
Favourite Artist: Meryl Streep
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League quarter-final, second leg (first-leg score)
Porto (0) v Liverpool (2), Wednesday, 11pm UAE
Match is on BeIN Sports
THE BIO
Favourite place to go to in the UAE: The desert sand dunes, just after some rain
Who inspires you: Anybody with new and smart ideas, challenging questions, an open mind and a positive attitude
Where would you like to retire: Most probably in my home country, Hungary, but with frequent returns to the UAE
Favorite book: A book by Transilvanian author, Albert Wass, entitled ‘Sword and Reap’ (Kard es Kasza) - not really known internationally
Favourite subjects in school: Mathematics and science
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
Company Profile:
Name: The Protein Bakeshop
Date of start: 2013
Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani
Based: Dubai
Size, number of employees: 12
Funding/investors: $400,000 (2018)
SERIES INFO
Schedule:
All matches at the Harare Sports Club
1st ODI, Wed Apr 10
2nd ODI, Fri Apr 12
3rd ODI, Sun Apr 14
4th ODI, Sun Apr 16
UAE squad
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
Zimbabwe squad
Peter Moor (captain), Solomon Mire, Brian Chari, Regis Chakabva, Sean Williams, Timycen Maruma, Sikandar Raza, Donald Tiripano, Kyle Jarvis, Tendai Chatara, Chris Mpofu, Craig Ervine, Brandon Mavuta, Ainsley Ndlovu, Tony Munyonga, Elton Chigumbura
When Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi
Known as The Lady of Arabic Song, Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi on November 28, 1971, as part of celebrations for the fifth anniversary of the accession of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan as Ruler of Abu Dhabi. A concert hall was constructed for the event on land that is now Al Nahyan Stadium, behind Al Wahda Mall. The audience were treated to many of Kulthum's most well-known songs as part of the sold-out show, including Aghadan Alqak and Enta Omri.
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
The specs
Engine: 3.5-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 380hp at 5,800rpm
Torque: 530Nm at 1,300-4,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Price: From Dh299,000 ($81,415)
On sale: Now
MATCH INFO
Osasuna 1 Real Madrid 4
Osasuna: García (14')
Real Madrid: Isco (33'), Ramos (38'), Vázquez (84'), Jovic (90' 2)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
World Test Championship table
1 India 71 per cent
2 New Zealand 70 per cent
3 Australia 69.2 per cent
4 England 64.1 per cent
5 Pakistan 43.3 per cent
6 West Indies 33.3 per cent
7 South Africa 30 per cent
8 Sri Lanka 16.7 per cent
9 Bangladesh 0
TICKETS
Tickets start at Dh100 for adults, while children can enter free on the opening day. For more information, visit www.mubadalawtc.com.
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ogram%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Karim%20Kouatly%20and%20Shafiq%20Khartabil%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20On-demand%20staffing%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2050%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMore%20than%20%244%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20round%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Series%20A%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGlobal%20Ventures%2C%20Aditum%20and%20Oraseya%20Capital%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Federer's 11 Wimbledon finals
2003 Beat Mark Philippoussis
2004 Beat Andy Roddick
2005 Beat Andy Roddick
2006 Beat Rafael Nadal
2007 Beat Rafael Nadal
2008 Lost to Rafael Nadal
2009 Beat Andy Roddick
2012 Beat Andy Murray
2014 Lost to Novak Djokovic
2015 Lost to Novak Djokovic
2017 Beat Marin Cilic
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
The years Ramadan fell in May
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Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
EPL's youngest
- Ethan Nwaneri (Arsenal)
15 years, 181 days old
- Max Dowman (Arsenal)
15 years, 235 days old
- Jeremy Monga (Leicester)
15 years, 271 days old
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16 years, 30 days old
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16 years, 68 days old
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