Last Friday, Hezbollah’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, gave a much-anticipated speech that left the impression that he was engaged in a high-wire balancing act. Mr Nasrallah had to balance his often-contradictory commitments, and in the end succeeded in buying himself time, while insisting that all options remained open for his party as it observes developments in the Israel-Gaza war.
Mr Nasrallah’s first obligation was to his partners in the so-called Axis of Resistance, an Iranian-sponsored alliance of armed militant groups that includes Hezbollah, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis in Yemen, militias close to Tehran in the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq, and various smaller groups.
Earlier this year, Mr Nasrallah first began speaking of what he called a “unity of the arenas” strategy, or a “unity of the fronts”, whereby the militias of the Axis of Resistance would co-ordinate their military operations against Israel in order to surround it with a ring of fire. This meant that when Israel crossed certain red lines on Muslim holy sites in Jerusalem or in its dealings with Axis of Resistance members, these militias would retaliate in unison.
The war in Gaza has put this strategy to the test, but it has also forced the partners in the Axis to clarify what co-ordination means. From the beginning, Hezbollah and Iran made clear that there were limits to what the Axis would allow Israel to do in Gaza, including invading the territory. However, they never spelt out what their response would be, nor how far they would go, retaining a margin of manoeuvre.
Hezbollah’s exchanges with Israel have remained within the traditional 'rules of engagement'
This created a dilemma for Mr Nasrallah. His commitment to the Axis hit up against his commitment at home to his own Shiite community and, perhaps to a lesser extent, to his sectarian counterparts in Lebanon, that Hezbollah could guarantee the country’s security. If Hezbollah entered the war fully against Israel, provoking huge Israeli retaliation that led to the country’s destruction, then Hezbollah risked being blamed both by Shiites and by other Lebanese communities.
Hezbollah is well aware that the aftermath of a ruinous war could threaten its dominant position. Israel has vowed to bomb Lebanon “back to the stone age” if the party were to enter the war with all its might. Inside the country, Hezbollah is already isolated, as most Lebanese have no desire to see Lebanon ravaged because of a conflict in Gaza. While there is sympathy for the Palestinians, Lebanon’s economic collapse in 2019 has made more advanced expressions of solidarity impossible.
In his speech, Mr Nasrallah did not rule out an escalation, but all the optics of his speech made it evident that Hezbollah sought to avoid a conflict that might quickly turn into a regional conflagration. Mr Nasrallah made a point of underlining that the party had entered the battle from day one, and it had drawn Israeli forces away from Gaza. This was, implicitly, a response to those who accused the group of not doing enough.
Yet as most observers have said, Hezbollah’s exchanges with Israel, while far from insignificant (dozens of combatants and civilians in total have been killed), have remained within the traditional “rules of engagement”. This means that fighting has been mostly contained to the broader border area, with both sides primarily engaged in tit-for-tat operations and avoiding hitting major strategic targets and large urban areas.
Something else must have greatly shaped Mr Nasrallah’s response: Iran’s priorities.
From the start, it was clear that the Iranians and the Americans shared an objective in not wanting to allow the conflict in Gaza to spin out of control and lead to a regional war that could draw in both countries. In the same way that Washington sought to control Israel’s response to avoid such an outcome, Mr Nasrallah must have known that his latitude to act was also limited, even if he was in full agreement with its implications.
It is unclear in which direction Hezbollah will go if Israel threatens Hamas existentially. Even if Mr Nasrallah did leave the door open to raising the ante in that case, his bottom line may not change very much – namely avoiding Lebanon’s devastation, management of which could absorb the group’s attention for many years, thereby neutralising Hezbollah and its ability to maintain a deterrence capability on Iran’s behalf.
The latter point cannot be underestimated. One of Hezbollah’s principal roles is to act as a shield against any US or Israeli attempt to bomb Iran, in particular its nuclear programme. Putting Hezbollah in a position where it may see this role undermined is probably not an option for Mr Nasrallah, even if he wants to avoid showing this.
A broader question is what Hezbollah’s reluctance to be drawn into a full-scale war with Israel, beyond the hitherto contained attacks in the broad border area with Israel, means for Iran’s and Hezbollah’s “unity of the arenas” strategy. In terms of expectations, it will certainly limit what Iran’s allies can anticipate Hezbollah will do on their behalf if the group’s power is threatened by Israel’s retaliation. Therefore, the strategy, which is a work in progress, may already have shown some of its limits.
Overall standings
1. Christopher Froome (GBR/Sky) 68hr 18min 36sec,
2. Fabio Aru (ITA/AST) at 0:18.
3. Romain Bardet (FRA/ALM) 0:23.
4. Rigoberto Uran (COL/CAN) 0:29.
5. Mikel Landa (ESP/SKY) 1:17.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
What is Genes in Space?
Genes in Space is an annual competition first launched by the UAE Space Agency, The National and Boeing in 2015.
It challenges school pupils to design experiments to be conducted in space and it aims to encourage future talent for the UAE’s fledgling space industry. It is the first of its kind in the UAE and, as well as encouraging talent, it also aims to raise interest and awareness among the general population about space exploration.
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Honeymoonish
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
MATCH INFO
What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Thursday (All UAE kick-off times)
Sevilla v Real Betis (midnight)
Friday
Granada v Real Betis (9.30pm)
Valencia v Levante (midnight)
Saturday
Espanyol v Alaves (4pm)
Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7pm)
Leganes v Real Valladolid (9.30pm)
Mallorca v Barcelona (midnight)
Sunday
Atletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid (4pm)
Real Madrid v Eibar (9.30pm)
Real Sociedad v Osasuna (midnight)
The biog
Year of birth: 1988
Place of birth: Baghdad
Education: PhD student and co-researcher at Greifswald University, Germany
Hobbies: Ping Pong, swimming, reading
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
Four-day collections of TOH
Day Indian Rs (Dh)
Thursday 500.75 million (25.23m)
Friday 280.25m (14.12m)
Saturday 220.75m (11.21m)
Sunday 170.25m (8.58m)
Total 1.19bn (59.15m)
(Figures in millions, approximate)
Company%C2%A0profile
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In numbers
Number of Chinese tourists coming to UAE in 2017 was... 1.3m
Alibaba’s new ‘Tech Town’ in Dubai is worth... $600m
China’s investment in the MIddle East in 2016 was... $29.5bn
The world’s most valuable start-up in 2018, TikTok, is valued at... $75bn
Boost to the UAE economy of 5G connectivity will be... $269bn
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
BLACKBERRY
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The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
