Sarfraz Bugti, Pakistan’s caretaker Interior Minister, announced at the start of October that the country’s caretaker government would begin the expulsion of 1.7 million unregistered Afghan refugees, with the deadline set for November 1. The deportations have already begun, and on Thursday Pakistani officials announced the establishment of deportation centres to hold any undocumented foreigners who have not left by the deadline. The plan represents the largest forced repatriation since the establishment of the UN’s Refugee Convention in 1951, which was created to prevent actions like these.
Although Pakistan is not a signatory to the treaty, the UN’s Refugee and Migration agencies have appealed to Islamabad to reconsider. What has prompted Pakistan to pursue a path that will cause so much human suffering, and is so contrary to established norms?
Caretaker governments are meant to provide non-partisan governance during election campaigns. Given this limited mandate, they rarely take major decisions. Pakistan’s current caretaker government stands out in particular because it is composed of figures selected by the military rather than the major political parties. This has an impact because Pakistan’s Afghan refugee policy has always been weighted towards security interests in Afghanistan. The nature of those interests, however, have sharply changed over time.
The Afghan refugees who began streaming into Pakistan after the Soviet invasion of 1979 were welcomed in large part because Pakistan wanted to ensure that the Afghan resistance had a large and secure social base of support. As Moscow withdrew its forces in the late 1980s, senior Pakistani strategists envisioned and advocated a future where the two countries had fully integrated their economies, or even entered into confederation. The sheer size of the Afghan population in Pakistan and the openness of the border allowed Pakistan to dominate Afghanistan’s economy and politics.
But the emergence of the Pakistani Taliban (the TTP) in 2007 changed all of that. The TTP’s ferocious insurgency was like nothing Pakistani army generals had ever experienced, or even imagined. The scale and reach of the TTP’s violence were certainly shocking, but the depth of the ideological challenge was even more terrifying. Armed forces personnel of every background seemed susceptible to a message that denied legitimate authority to anyone other than a reclusive one-eyed Afghan preacher.
It is no accident that Pakistan stopped granting formal refugee status to new arrivals after 2007. And after the horrific Army Public School massacre that took place in Peshawar in December 2014, the Pakistani government began mass forced repatriations on a scale that had not been seen since Partition. Over 400,000 displaced Afghans were sent back, forcing Kabul to seek some kind of detente with Pakistan.
Afghan refugees, it should be noted, had nothing to do with the TTP and its violence. In fact, the TTP had been largely driven out of its safe havens by a series of army offensives in the semi-autonomous “tribal agencies” along the border. The displaced militants then began to operate from territory vacated by the Kabul government. By 2017, the expulsions of refugees had stopped, but in exchange the Afghan government reluctantly accepted Pakistan’s fencing of the border.
Today it is the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate, rather than the elected and pro-western leadership of the Afghan republic that sits in Kabul, but Pakistan’s choices have not changed for the better. That is because, remarkably, the TTP received support from both of these very different, and very mutually hostile Afghan regimes. Every Afghan government of the past 75 years – royalist, communist, democratic and clerical – has found itself unable to accept the legitimacy of Pakistan’s colonial borders, and this has inevitably led to conflict with Pakistan.
On top of that Pakistan has cracked down on the highly profitable transit trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan, threatening the Taliban’s tax base
Beyond the clash of nationalisms, the Afghan Taliban feels an additional ideological compulsion to support its sister movement, the Pakistani Taliban. The Pakistani government’s on-and-off transactional support to the Afghan Taliban is simply no match for what the Taliban leadership seems to sincerely believe is a matter of faith.
Thanks to the US pullout and the Taliban’s takeover in Kabul in 2021, the TTP has emerged as a reinvigorated force, with an enormous safe haven and no shortage of weapons. The result has been an expanding insurgency in Pakistan’s provinces of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, with hundreds of attacks conducted this year alone.
Pakistani forces have not yet been able to turn this tide, despite steadily mounting casualties. After the divisive and bruising battle with Imran Khan, and the near-meltdown of the economy, the failure to maintain peace and security is an extremely serious political problem for the military’s legitimacy.
Although Pakistan has threatened military force against the Afghan Taliban, and even carried out airstrikes on Afghan soil, there is considerable reluctance to get bogged down in the same kind of war that exhausted the Soviets and American superpowers. Especially when Pakistani forces are already stretched between multiple insurgencies. Instead, the goal seems to be to wage an indirect economic war on the Taliban.
A million and a half returnees would put severe pressure on food and housing prices as well as public resources. On top of that Pakistan has cracked down on the highly profitable transit trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan, threatening the Taliban’s tax base. Cumulatively, the hope seems to be that these actions will challenge the Islamic Emirate’s economic stability, and ultimately its domestic legitimacy, without creating a military crisis.
Unfortunately, the Afghan Taliban’s track record does not suggest that they respond to such high visibility external pressure of any sort, whether military or economic. The Taliban’s threshold for pain and its options for escalation remain far higher than that of Pakistan.
Meanwhile, the Pakistani government’s current policies will likely cause immense suffering to refugees and border communities in both countries, which will likely add rather than alleviate its security burden. The radicalisation of Afghan refugees against their adopted country can very easily be transformed from a false stereotype to a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It is clear that Pakistan requires the support of the international community to take on the TTP and to restrain the Taliban. But in turn it must uphold international norms when it comes to the treatment of refugees.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
The years Ramadan fell in May
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
UAE central contracts
Full time contracts
Rohan Mustafa, Ahmed Raza, Mohammed Usman, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Sultan Ahmed, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Waheed Ahmed, Zawar Farid
Part time contracts
Aryan Lakra, Ansh Tandon, Karthik Meiyappan, Rahul Bhatia, Alishan Sharafu, CP Rizwaan, Basil Hameed, Matiullah, Fahad Nawaz, Sanchit Sharma
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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More coverage from the Future Forum
Primera Liga fixtures (all times UAE: 4 GMT)
Friday
Real Sociedad v Villarreal (10.15pm)
Real Betis v Celta Vigo (midnight)
Saturday
Alaves v Barcelona (8.15pm)
Levante v Deportivo La Coruna (10.15pm)
Girona v Malaga (10.15pm)
Las Palmas v Atletico Madrid (12.15am)
Sunday
Espanyol v Leganes (8.15pm)
Eibar v Athletic Bilbao (8.15pm)
Getafe v Sevilla (10.15pm)
Real Madrid v Valencia (10.15pm)
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs: 2018 Renault Megane
Price, base / as tested Dh52,900 / Dh59,200
Engine 1.6L in-line four-cylinder
Transmission Continuously variable transmission
Power 115hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque 156Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.6L / 100km
Key changes
Commission caps
For life insurance products with a savings component, Peter Hodgins of Clyde & Co said different caps apply to the saving and protection elements:
• For the saving component, a cap of 4.5 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 90 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).
• On the protection component, there is a cap of 10 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 160 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).
• Indemnity commission, the amount of commission that can be advanced to a product salesperson, can be 50 per cent of the annualised premium for the first year or 50 per cent of the total commissions on the policy calculated.
• The remaining commission after deduction of the indemnity commission is paid equally over the premium payment term.
• For pure protection products, which only offer a life insurance component, the maximum commission will be 10 per cent of the annualised premium multiplied by the length of the policy in years.
Disclosure
Customers must now be provided with a full illustration of the product they are buying to ensure they understand the potential returns on savings products as well as the effects of any charges. There is also a “free-look” period of 30 days, where insurers must provide a full refund if the buyer wishes to cancel the policy.
“The illustration should provide for at least two scenarios to illustrate the performance of the product,” said Mr Hodgins. “All illustrations are required to be signed by the customer.”
Another illustration must outline surrender charges to ensure they understand the costs of exiting a fixed-term product early.
Illustrations must also be kept updatedand insurers must provide information on the top five investment funds available annually, including at least five years' performance data.
“This may be segregated based on the risk appetite of the customer (in which case, the top five funds for each segment must be provided),” said Mr Hodgins.
Product providers must also disclose the ratio of protection benefit to savings benefits. If a protection benefit ratio is less than 10 per cent "the product must carry a warning stating that it has limited or no protection benefit" Mr Hodgins added.
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
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About Tenderd
Started: May 2018
Founder: Arjun Mohan
Based: Dubai
Size: 23 employees
Funding: Raised $5.8m in a seed fund round in December 2018. Backers include Y Combinator, Beco Capital, Venturesouq, Paul Graham, Peter Thiel, Paul Buchheit, Justin Mateen, Matt Mickiewicz, SOMA, Dynamo and Global Founders Capital
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The five pillars of Islam
More on animal trafficking
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
The five pillars of Islam
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Banned items
Dubai Police has also issued a list of banned items at the ground on Sunday. These include:
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Political flags or banners
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Bikes, skateboards or scooters
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
More on Quran memorisation:
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 2
(Martial 30', McTominay 90 6')
Manchester City 0
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Vault%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBilal%20Abou-Diab%20and%20Sami%20Abdul%20Hadi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELicensed%20by%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Global%20Market%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EInvestment%20and%20wealth%20advisory%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%241%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EOutliers%20VC%20and%20angel%20investors%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E14%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
Fixtures
Tuesday - 5.15pm: Team Lebanon v Alger Corsaires; 8.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Pharaohs
Wednesday - 5.15pm: Pharaohs v Carthage Eagles; 8.30pm: Alger Corsaires v Abu Dhabi Storms
Thursday - 4.30pm: Team Lebanon v Pharaohs; 7.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Carthage Eagles
Friday - 4.30pm: Pharaohs v Alger Corsaires; 7.30pm: Carthage Eagles v Team Lebanon
Saturday - 4.30pm: Carthage Eagles v Alger Corsaires; 7.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Team Lebanon
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
