Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
October 01, 2023
Russia appears to be renewing its support to Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, whose forces control eastern Libya, as the military leader looks to take over the entire country.
Field Marshal Haftar, who backs the Tobruk administration that rivals the government in Tripoli, was in Moscow in the week gone by, where he held meetings over several days. This followed a visit by Russian Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov to Benghazi some weeks earlier.
Meanwhile, the US is said to be taking an interest in Libya, as its co-operation with Field Marshal Haftar grows. According to a report by The Intercept, a meeting took place between the commander of the US Africa Command, Gen Michael Langley, and Field Marshal Haftar in the preceding week.
However, the convergent American and Russian interests in the military leader are not at the same level, as the Biden administration is preoccupied with other priorities in the Mena region. By contrast, Russia sees, after the coup in Niger, an opportunity to restore its political relevance in Africa as discontent with the West grows on the continent.
Yet the top Russian priority remains strengthening relations with China against the West. Preparations are under way for a summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing from October 26-29.
The convergent American and Russian interests are not at the same level
China does not recognise the territories annexed by Russia in Ukraine as Russian, and wants both countries to demonstrate flexibility by withdrawing their conditions for entering into talks to end the conflict. What China wants is a "clean slate" on which it can play the role of a technical mediator rather than a political mediator. But Russia is not ready to withdraw its conditions, and neither is Ukraine.
This will leave a mark on the Beijing summit for the leadership in Moscow, which seeks to explore fully the prospects of a Sino-Russian partnership. China, on the other hand, believes that prolonging the Ukraine conflict will be harmful to Russia and intensify American efforts to build alliances, not only against Moscow but also against Beijing, through the US-Japan-South Korea triad and increased communication and co-ordination between Nato and Japan.
The Niger coup has left western powers and some African countries deeply concerned, but it may have rejuvenated Russian interest in Libya. If so, this is noteworthy.
The meetings with Field Marshal Haftar signal Russia's decision to reassert its influence in Africa and thereby send a message to the West that isolating it is merely a fantasy. The resource-rich continent could also serve as a means for Russia to escape from Nato's clutches in the Ukraine conflict, both economically and politically.
The web of international entanglements in Libya may have convinced Moscow that other powers, including Turkey, as well as key Arab and European powers, would not intervene against its support for Field Marshal Haftar. Indeed, Europe supports anything that prevents a major migration wave from the Libyan coast to the continent.
The Russians appear to believe that the US will not seek major influence in Libya at this point, particularly given American public sensitivities due to US failures there, as well as a perceived lack of trust in Libyan authorities. Therefore, the Kremlin believes that the Biden administration will not strongly oppose Russia supporting Field Marshal Haftar's takeover bid.
This could explain, at least partly, the reported meeting between US military leaders and Field Marshal Haftar - perhaps also to remind him to not put all his eggs in the Russian basket. While the Biden administration may overlook Russian investments in Libya, it will seek to keep a check on Moscow's agendas in Africa as a whole.
The horizons opened up by the coup in Niger have also motivated other powers beyond Russia to attempt to fill the void left by France and the West in parts of Africa, including key players in the Mena region. Economic reasons would certainly be a driving force for engagement, given the investment opportunities in some of the resource-rich countries, but geopolitical considerations are equally important.
Africa is going through an extremely important phase and is at a historical turning point. There is much more interest in the continent, with each of the players from around the world seeking to take advantage of the favourable opportunities available.
It is to be seen if the leaders of these African countries will contribute to shaping a prosperous future for their peoples, or whether they will fall into the spiral of political upheaval and military coups that have riddled the continent's decades-long post-colonial history.
Men: Hamad Nawad and Khalid Al Balushi (56kg), Omar Al Fadhli and Saeed Al Mazroui (62kg), Taleb Al Kirbi and Humaid Al Kaabi (69kg), Mohammed Al Qubaisi and Saud Al Hammadi (70kg), Khalfan Belhol and Mohammad Haitham Radhi (85kg), Faisal Al Ketbi and Zayed Al Kaabi (94kg)
Women: Wadima Al Yafei and Mahra Al Hanaei (49kg), Bashayer Al Matrooshi and Hessa Al Shamsi (62kg)
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
Racecard:
6.30pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah (PA) | Group 2 | US$55,000 (Dirt) | 1,600 metres
The bairaq is a competition for the best herd of 50 camels, named for the banner its winner takes home
Namoos - a word of congratulations reserved for falconry competitions, camel races and camel pageants. It best translates as 'the pride of victory' - and for competitors, it is priceless
