Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends a news conference during the Nato summit in Vilnius in July. EPA
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends a news conference during the Nato summit in Vilnius in July. EPA
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends a news conference during the Nato summit in Vilnius in July. EPA
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends a news conference during the Nato summit in Vilnius in July. EPA


Is Turkey finally breaking free of the East-West paradigm?


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August 22, 2023

Traditional powers are in turmoil, even decline, opening the way for a rising Turkey. These days one barely needs to squint to imagine Ankara’s favoured narrative coming to fruition.

The US overcame an attempted coup in 2021 and is now struggling with its highest levels of political violence in half a century. The fact that US neighbours such as Canada have reportedly begun planning for American democratic backsliding and a subsequently weakened Nato underscores the grave concern.

China is sliding into an economic slump. Property developer Evergrande just filed for bankruptcy, with $335 billion in debt, and another big developer may soon default. The yuan is at its lowest in 15 years, and after a record 21.3 per cent youth unemployment in June, Chinese authorities said they would stop publishing unemployment figures while they improve data collection.

Great Britain has been in a tailspin since Brexit, while France has been in the grip of frenzied protesters. Russia’s currency has collapsed and its military is stuck waist-deep in Europe’s largest land war in 80 years. Even so, last week The Economist wondered if Germany was “the sick man of Europe”.

When coined by Nicholas I in the 19th century, this term described the declining Ottoman Empire. So one might imagine some rejoicing in Ankara upon its being applied to Germany, particularly as the number of Turks emigrating there has spiked this year.

Sure, Turkey is mired in its own economic crisis, with sky-high inflation, a plummeting lira, and a potential brain drain as a result. But Ankara seems to be having its international moment, which is fitting given the prominence of nationalists in the May elections.

A Turkish Bayraktar TB2 combat drone is on view during a presentation at the Lithuanian Air Force Base in Siauliai in July. AFP
A Turkish Bayraktar TB2 combat drone is on view during a presentation at the Lithuanian Air Force Base in Siauliai in July. AFP
Turkey is mired in its own economic crisis, but Ankara seems to be having its international moment

Two years ago, I detailed how Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his inner circle view their country as fighting for the world’s oppressed and reasserting its dominance, thanks to geographic centrality and military might, as global power shifts. Suddenly, every passing day seems to herald the arrival of this vision.

Consider Mr Erdogan’s recent Gulf tour. Many deals are still being finalised, so we can expect to learn of an array of defence, energy and tech agreements in the coming months. But the UAE and Turkey announced agreements worth a combined $50.7 billion. Saudi Arabia made a $3 billion deal with Turkey’s top defence contractor Baykar to build a drone factory in the kingdom.

The trip showed Turkey is now received warmly in the Gulf, following a period of tensions, and its defence industry has matured. Earlier this year, Mr Erdogan set a target of $6 billion in defence exports, up from last year’s $4.3 billion.

But following the Saudi deal, some analysts see Turkey nearly doubling last year’s tally and reaching $8 billion. After launching the world’s first drone carrier in April, for instance, Turkey is reportedly finalising its third regional sale of the new naval concept.

This military might is boosting Ankara’s international confidence, as seen in its pushback against Moscow after Russian forces raided a ship 60 kilometres from Istanbul last week. It’s also strengthened Turkey’s stance as champion of the world’s disadvantaged.

Last year, Ankara brokered a Russia-Ukraine grain deal that may have staved off famine. Now, weeks after Russia pulled out of that agreement, Turkey is in talks with Russia on a deal to start shipping Russian grain to Africa. Last week, in defiance of Russia’s blockade, Istanbul welcomed the first cargo ship from Ukraine, while this week Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan heads to Kyiv to discuss a grain corridor.

But to understand the shifting geopolitical winds, we need to rewind to Nato’s July summit in Vilnius. The big story out of that gathering was the Turkish president agreeing to support Sweden’s bid to join the alliance. Afterwards, we saw few denunciations of Mr Erdogan’s transactionalism or holding up of the bloc’s expansion.

Instead, major media outlets portrayed Turkey as mending ties with the US and tilting towards or recalibrating with the West. In response to this, one prominent Turkey watcher after another argued, just as Ankara might, that today’s Turkey should no longer be depicted as leaning this way or that, but accepted as a rising force with a foot in each camp.

Vessels including those that are part of Black Sea grain deal wait to pass the Bosphorus strait off the shores of Yenikapi in Istanbul. Reuters
Vessels including those that are part of Black Sea grain deal wait to pass the Bosphorus strait off the shores of Yenikapi in Istanbul. Reuters

In some of the most influential publications for Washington policymakers, leading experts argued that Turkey would never anchor itself to the West, that “Nato’s prodigal son” would not return, that Turkey had become post-western, neither enemy nor ally, but rather “a prototype of [a] middle power”.

The thrust seemed to be that the owner of Nato’s second-largest military would never be fully on-side because of misaligned interests. Thus, the US, with its nuclear weapons at Incirlik air base, would need to find new ways to make deals, because of threats posed by China and Russia and a possible Middle East powderkeg.

To put it simply: this independent, empowered Turkey is likely to be impossible while remaining invaluable. Fahrettin Altun, the Turkish presidency’s communications director, could have hardly said it better. The AKP-led government has of course taken troubling steps against free speech and the rule of law, but its diplomatic assertiveness, leavened with apparent humanity and nestled within an Islam-friendly society, has some observers hinting at an emerging Turkish exceptionalism.

A prominent Muslim-American blogger recently said he finds diverse, rainbow communities repellent and may leave the US for Turkey. Many British Muslims have already made the move, according to Turkey’s state broadcaster, and Islamic students and scholars have been arriving as well.

I recently heard that one of Mr Erdogan’s preferred Quranic references is Surah Al Imran 139, which broadly translates to: “Do not lose heart, for you will have the upper hand if you’re a believer.” The haters are gonna hate, the verse seems to suggest in this context, but come to Turkey, see the reality, and become part of something bigger and better.

Sri Lanka-India Test series schedule

 

  • 1st Test India won by 304 runs at Galle
  • 2nd Test Thursday-Monday at Colombo
  • 3rd Test August 12-16 at Pallekele
Sreesanth's India bowling career

Tests 27, Wickets 87, Average 37.59, Best 5-40

ODIs 53, Wickets 75, Average 33.44, Best 6-55

T20Is 10, Wickets 7, Average 41.14, Best 2-12

RESULT

Manchester United 1 Brighton and Hove Albion 0
Man United: Dunk (66' og)

Man of the Match: Shane Duffy (Brighton)

The biog

Hobbies: Writing and running
Favourite sport: beach volleyball
Favourite holiday destinations: Turkey and Puerto Rico​

Europa League group stage draw

Group A: Villarreal, Maccabi Tel Aviv, Astana, Slavia Prague.
Group B: Dynamo Kiev, Young Boys, Partizan Belgrade, Skenderbeu.
Group C: Sporting Braga, Ludogorets, Hoffenheim, Istanbul Basaksehir.
Group D: AC Milan, Austria Vienna , Rijeka, AEK Athens.
Group E: Lyon, Everton, Atalanta, Apollon Limassol.
Group F: FC Copenhagen, Lokomotiv Moscow, Sheriff Tiraspol, FC Zlin.
Group G: Vitoria Plzen, Steaua Bucarest, Hapoel Beer-Sheva, FC Lugano.
Group H: Arsenal, BATE Borisov, Cologne, Red Star Belgrade.
Group I: Salzburg, Marseille, Vitoria Guimaraes, Konyaspor.
Group J: Athletic Bilbao, Hertha Berlin, Zorya Luhansk, Ostersund.
Group K: Lazio, Nice, Zulte Waregem, Vitesse Arnhem.
Group L: Zenit St Petersburg, Real Sociedad, Rosenborg, Vardar

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Three stars

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F1 The Movie

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Director: Joseph Kosinski

Rating: 4/5

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UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

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Messi (27’, 32’, 87’)

Leganes 1
El Zhar (68’)

Defence review at a glance

• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”

• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems

• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.

• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%

• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade

• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels

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Price, base / as tested: Dh89,000 / Dh130,000
Engine: 2.5-litre four-cylinder
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Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

Labour dispute

The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.


- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law 

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4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

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Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.

Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en

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Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence

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Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi

Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser

Rating: 4.5/5

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Director: Lulu Wang

Stars: Awkwafina, Zhao Shuzhen, Diana Lin, Tzi Ma

Four stars

Updated: August 24, 2023, 4:31 AM`