Chitrabhanu Kadalayil is deputy comment editor at The National
August 10, 2023
Ever since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi won the 2014 general election in a landslide, the same questions have been asked time and again. Can Rahul Gandhi, India’s leading opposition figure for the past decade, take on Mr Modi? And if not Mr Gandhi, then who?
Ten months ahead of the 2024 vote, the same tired set of queries is being posed on mainstream and social media. It is a trap both Mr Gandhi and the newly assembled alliance of opposition parties will do well to avoid.
To begin with, the fundamental premise of these questions is flawed. India is a parliamentary democracy, in which the largest party or coalition of parties to emerge after an election approaches the President, the titular head of the republic, and secures the right to form a government.
In other words, this isn’t a presidential contest – as happens in the US or Turkey.
And yet, we live in the real world – where Indians have, over three eras in their country’s post-colonial history, sought to choose a “strong and decisive leader” as prime minister so that he or she can “get things done” through sheer force of personality. Mr Modi – much like India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, and his daughter, Indira Gandhi – towers head and shoulders over all his peers, across party lines.
Nine years of incumbency don’t appear to have shaken the people’s confidence in him either. According to the Lokniti-CSDS Survey released at the end of May, 43 per cent of respondents would elect Mr Modi again. His nearest rival was Mr Gandhi, at 27 per cent, with other leaders registering in the single digits.
It is little wonder, then, that the governing Bharatiya Janata Party is making the 2024 election a referendum on Mr Modi’s leadership – just as it did during his re-election campaign in 2019.
The BJP has benefited from portraying Mr Gandhi as the privileged scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, claiming he is in politics only because the party he leads – the Indian National Congress – is little more than a family firm. Mr Modi, on the other hand, has been self-made throughout his political career.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks during SemiconIndia in Gandhinagar in July. AFP
When there is a wealth of talent in the India alliance, the Congress shouldn’t be rocking an already rickety boat
But Mr Gandhi, who for years struggled to break out of the pigeonhole the BJP created for him, has finally managed an image transformation after his hugely successful Unite India Rally. He undertook a 4,000-kilometre walkathon across the length of India that began late last year and spanned almost 150 days.
The journey, punctuated with soaring speeches and rich interactions with the public, celebrities, civil society members and former bureaucrats, established his pre-eminence not just in his own party but also among leaders of other opposition parties that have spent the past decade co-opting some of the Congress’s shrinking vote base.
Mr Gandhi has continued to be in the news lately. In March, a lower court ruled that he had defamed all people with the same surname as Mr Modi in remarks that he made during an election speech in 2019. The court in Gujarat, Mr Modi’s home state, sentenced Mr Gandhi to two years in jail. As per the law, he was consequently disqualified from parliament.
But the Supreme Court’s suspension of his conviction last week, and his subsequent reinstatement as an MP this week, could be both good news and bad for the anti-BJP voters – who make up 60 per cent of the electorate.
For the past six months, an emboldened Mr Gandhi has been hitting the BJP hard over a range of issues. He has accused them of fuelling religious polarisation, undermining democratic institutions, and indulging in what he claims to be crony capitalism.
His political resurgence, and the fact he has been consistently in the news, has undoubtedly revived the Congress’s fortunes in recent state and local body elections by creating a buzz among those who are ideologically opposed to Mr Modi. But counterintuitively, it might also serve the BJP to revive the “Modi versus Gandhi” head-to-head contest in the general election and, in the process, distract the electorate from bread-and-butter issues, such as price rise, unemployment and rural distress.
BJP MPs were already targetting Mr Gandhi during this week’s parliament sessions, and an op-ed penned by a BJP leader appeared in one of India’s largest mainstream dailies, in which he critiqued the Congress leader’s record as an MP.
The 26-party 'India' alliance meets in Bangalore in July. EPA
All this might worry some of the leaders in the recently constituted 26-party coalition named the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance – or simply “India” – of which Congress is one. The alliance was formed during Mr Gandhi’s suspension, and he clarified that he wasn’t seeking to become its prime ministerial candidate.
The question is, will that change now that Mr Gandhi is back in Parliament? Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, one Congress’s most senior and powerful leaders, last week said: “For us, Rahul Gandhi is the PM face.”
To be sure, Mr Gehlot will point to the fact that Mr Gandhi has been one of the government’s most high-profile critics. He might also suggest that Mr Gandhi, more than any other leader in the country, has stood up to defend the republic’s secular underpinnings – which the BJP’s rise has challenged, given the party’s ideological emphasis on Hindu cultural prominence.
And yet, when there is a wealth of talent in the India alliance, with leaders with far more political and administrative heft and experience, the Congress shouldn’t be rocking an already rickety boat that includes parties with competing interests and vote banks. They should, instead, focus on offering a coherent message, displaying opposition unity, and talking about bread-and-butter issues.
After almost a decade of a Modi-led government, it might also be the time for the opposition to test the proposition that, given India’s size and the array of challenges it faces, a “team” with a deep bench might be a better proposition for the voters.
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UK's plans to cut net migration
Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.
Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.
But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.
Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.
Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.
The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.
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The more serious side of specialty coffee
While the taste of beans and freshness of roast is paramount to the specialty coffee scene, so is sustainability and workers’ rights.
The bulk of genuine specialty coffee companies aim to improve on these elements in every stage of production via direct relationships with farmers. For instance, Mokha 1450 on Al Wasl Road strives to work predominantly with women-owned and -operated coffee organisations, including female farmers in the Sabree mountains of Yemen.
Because, as the boutique’s owner, Garfield Kerr, points out: “women represent over 90 per cent of the coffee value chain, but are woefully underrepresented in less than 10 per cent of ownership and management throughout the global coffee industry.”
One of the UAE’s largest suppliers of green (meaning not-yet-roasted) beans, Raw Coffee, is a founding member of the Partnership of Gender Equity, which aims to empower female coffee farmers and harvesters.
Also, globally, many companies have found the perfect way to recycle old coffee grounds: they create the perfect fertile soil in which to grow mushrooms.
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Four reasons global stock markets are falling right now
There are many factors worrying investors right now and triggering a rush out of stock markets. Here are four of the biggest:
1. Rising US interest rates
The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates three times this year in a bid to prevent its buoyant economy from overheating. They now stand at between 2 and 2.25 per cent and markets are pencilling in three more rises next year.
Kim Catechis, manager of the Legg Mason Martin Currie Global Emerging Markets Fund, says US inflation is rising and the Fed will continue to raise rates in 2019. “With inflationary pressures growing, an increasing number of corporates are guiding profitability expectations downwards for 2018 and 2019, citing the negative impact of rising costs.”
At the same time as rates are rising, central bankers in the US and Europe have been ending quantitative easing, bringing the era of cheap money to an end.
2. Stronger dollar
High US rates have driven up the value of the dollar and bond yields, and this is putting pressure on emerging market countries that took advantage of low interest rates to run up trillions in dollar-denominated debt. They have also suffered capital outflows as international investors have switched to the US, driving markets lower. Omar Negyal, portfolio manager of the JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust, says this looks like a buying opportunity. “Despite short-term volatility we remain positive about long-term prospects and profitability for emerging markets.”
3. Global trade war
Ritu Vohora, investment director at fund manager M&G, says markets fear that US President Donald Trump’s spat with China will escalate into a full-blown global trade war, with both sides suffering. “The US economy is robust enough to absorb higher input costs now, but this may not be the case as tariffs escalate. However, with a host of factors hitting investor sentiment, this is becoming a stock picker’s market.”
4. Eurozone uncertainty
Europe faces two challenges right now in the shape of Brexit and the new populist government in eurozone member Italy.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, which has offices in Dubai, says the stand-off between between Rome and Brussels threatens to become much more serious. "As with Brexit, neither side appears willing to step back from the edge, threatening more trouble down the line.”
The European economy may also be slowing, Mr Beauchamp warns. “A four-year low in eurozone manufacturing confidence highlights the fact that producers see a bumpy road ahead, with US-EU trade talks remaining a major question-mark for exporters.”
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11 What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time. TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
The biog
Siblings: five brothers and one sister
Education: Bachelors in Political Science at the University of Minnesota
Interests: Swimming, tennis and the gym
Favourite place: UAE
Favourite packet food on the trip: pasta primavera
What he did to pass the time during the trip: listen to audio books
