Last week, Kenyan President William Ruto was asked what Africa had at stake in the Ukraine war. With the latest developments in Russia now playing out after Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin made a lightning raid in an attempt to remove the top military leadership, it is possible that the entire world is looking to Russia-Ukraine wondering what is at stake now.
For Africa, however, I suspect the answer has not changed much. I will explain why below, but I believe that the events since February 24, 2022 in Ukraine, the turmoil unleashed in Russia and the collateral impact in Europe, Africa, the Mena region and Asia all point to one essential reality.
The situation must be addressed through negotiations. Those talks need to shift the focus away from the battlefield now. The need for diplomacy that involves all the major powers is obvious, for the maelstrom is only growing with every move on the military chessboard.
Mr Ruto was speaking at the Paris summit hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron for a new global financing pact, where he reiterated that the Ukraine conflict was a violation of the UN Charter. In his climate-ravaged country, where the threat and opportunities are currently unequal, the conflict exerts a terrible pressure.
The Great Rift Valley in Kenya has the potential to be one of the largest carbon sinks on the planet. But the resources the country needs to meet that opportunity cannot be found. Instead, there is a squeeze on commodity prices that has only been perpetuated since February last year.
The cost of imports of wheat and other foods has soared in the wake of the invasion. Mr Ruto particularly mentioned the role of fertiliser in the equation as supplies are very much disrupted by the wider pressures on Black Sea shipments, sanctions and trade.
The African Peace Mission to Ukraine and Russia only just wrapped up last week. Some African leaders took the opportunity of the 40-strong gathering of world leaders in Paris to brief counterparts from the continent on how the delegations had been received.
As it happens, there was another conference in Europe last week – and there was a marked lack of overlap.
The Ukraine Recovery Conference in London was hailed as a tremendous success. It underlined some hard truths. Moreover, the depth of solidarity between Ukraine and its allies in Europe and the US was firm and unbending.
Remarkably for a country that lives on the brink, there was a tone of optimism that Ukraine could be reconstructed and rise like a phoenix from the ruins of war. Even the references to the roles of multinationals – tainted in other parallel rebuilding projects, notably in Iraq – was seen as subject to safeguards. And tens of billions were on the table.
To take the train to Paris from the London conference, as I did, was instructive. There were a few faces familiar from the panels in London but certainly nothing that signified an en-masse shift from one top global gathering to another.
In the Palais Brongniart at the Macron summit, which is one of the pillars of the build-up to Cop28 in the UAE in November, the emphasis was more thematic. The stakes were higher for African and Latin American countries, especially those excluded from the stable borrowing arrangements on offer from international financial institutions.
With a changing climate altering crop and livestock cycles from two or three a year to one or none, the resilience of these countries has been all but eliminated. A global financial infrastructure that was set up in the wake of the Second World War has lost its relevance, especially to the 52 countries – or a quarter of the total number of countries – that essentially can’t borrow.
A doom loop that must be broken has enveloped the global financial system and Cop28 provides the opportunity to break this cyclical breakdown, thanks in part to what was discussed in Paris.
As a representative in the African leadership group, Mr Ruto expressed gratitude for the recognition at the summit – which had IMF and World Bank officials and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in attendance – of a new normal in which countries facing threats to humanity need financial fallbacks.
So it was not unreasonable of Mr Ruto to bring Ukraine into the conversation. There is with the Ukraine war the crux of the crisis that sucks in every other issue. We are living month to month now on the Black Sea initiative which has seen commodities, food oils and fertiliser move out of Ukraine and Russia with some certainty thanks to the good offices of the UN and Turkey.
Every development – last week’s, last month’s, and a year-and-a-half of fighting – is a shift that causes more disruption. The talks are continuing from all corners of the world. The visits by the African leaders are the latest big effort to get something up and running.
Kyiv and Moscow are now in a dynamic that needs an outside actor to find a path above the battle. The dynamics are clear to see, and the timeframe remains longer rather than shorter.
From a global perspective, certainly on display in Paris if not London, that is more than just another risk. It is an intolerable burden.
