A few days ago, in these pages, I predicted that the ongoing debt ceiling crisis would reveal US President Joe Biden to be finally out of his depths or have unexpected depths of sophistication. Or, I added, a jerryrigged agreement could simply postpone a day of reckoning.
The first scenario has been avoided as Mr Biden has neatly escaped a dangerous trap. The emerging solution appears to be a combination of scenarios two and three: a familiar deal that vindicates several of the President’s defining strategies.
On Saturday night, Mr Biden and Kevin McCarthy, the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, announced an agreement to extend the debt ceiling for two years in exchange for strikingly narrow spending cuts and caps.
Many significant details are not yet known, but the broad outlines are clear. The White House and the House of Representatives have done a fairly standard deal, at least when Democrats hold the presidency. Republican presidents ask for, and receive, unconditional debt ceiling expansions, which allow the Treasury Department to borrow money to pay for debts already incurred by Congress.
Biden had no white rabbit to pull out of his hat, no brilliant and unanticipated gimmick
However, a pattern has emerged whereby Republicans do not extend this courtesy to Democratic presidents. Republicans suddenly remember that they are supposed to be alarmed at national budget deficits and debts, no matter whether they are becoming a greater or lesser percentage of GDP.
Many Democrats were petrified that Mr Biden, negotiating almost entirely in secret and apparently on Republican terms, was poised to cheerfully give up far too much to avoid a massive crisis. Yet this does not appear to have happened.
The actual cuts in spending are extremely limited, and even the caps to spending increases seem to hew reasonably well to major White House goals developed under the last Congress. Republicans gained a symbolic sop – at least in terms of national expenditure, although undoubtedly with alarming significance for many individuals and families – with some potential restrictions on nutritional and other support for poor people and, more importantly, new work requirements on “able-bodied” individuals without dependents.
Savings will be decidedly modest. For Republicans, it's a matter of principle. And while few Democrats are going to be happy about these changes, even fewer will be kept up at night. It was a big win for one side, in their own eyes, and not much of a loss for most people on the other side.
The numbers are not going to be huge. For Republicans, it's a matter of principle. And while few Democrats are going to be happy about these changes, even fewer are going to be kept up at night. It was a big win for one side, in their own eyes, and not that much of a loss for most people on the other side.
On the other hand, Mr Biden appears to have protected much of the most important spending he was able to secure in the first two years after his election. Total spending cutbacks over 10 years under these terms may be limited to a mere $650 billion.
Mr Biden had no white rabbit to pull out of his hat, no brilliant and unanticipated gimmick, or unexpected genius solution. As is so often the case with the wily old fox, the President's superpower is his normality, transparency and predictability. While he disingenuously insisted he would never negotiate over budget issues with the debt ceiling being effectively held hostage – though of course that's exactly what he did – from the onset he stressed the two biggest themes of his presidency: bipartisan compromise and political patience.
This approach and rhetoric have consistently infuriated many progressive Democrats. But it has just as consistently worked. It is exactly what secured the huge pandemic bailout which began his term. And the hard infrastructure act. And the high-tech investment act. And the social spending and climate change bill. And more besides. Very little of that appears meaningfully threatened, indeed it would be more accurate to say it largely has been protected, by the terms of this agreement.
In effect, Mr Biden has again delivered what he said he would, in exactly the way he said he would do it, despite numerous doubts, including my own, particularly as the witching hour approached. The Treasury Department, by the way, has cited next Wednesday as the first day a potential default might begin. Presumably, it's ready to come up with a few last-ditch workarounds to buy extra time to test the legislative viability of the agreement.
And here's where Mr Biden truly got the better of Mr McCarthy.
Both leaders now must sell a compromise agreement that no one is going to be happy with to members of Congress on both sides, including the Democratic progressive-left and Republican hard-right. While their tasks may be roughly similar, the obstacles and consequences for failure each will face are radically different.
The murmurs of unease among progressives is extremely muted compared to categorical opposition already emanating from right-wing conservatives. It may not be simple or comfortable for the President to get his House ducklings in a row, but it just may not be possible for the House Speaker.
And now the political calculation has completely flipped. Before this agreement, there was every reason to suspect the sitting president would face most of the blame for any financial calamity. But if the Republican House Speaker makes a solemn agreement with the President to save the economy, and that is sabotaged by his own extremist faction, they, and he, will be left holding the bag essentially alone.
Unless Democrats make the unimaginable blunder of opposing the agreement in sufficient numbers to create a real obstacle to passage, which seems highly unlikely, this has now become an internal Republican problem and probably a crisis. There will be members of the extreme right who will tell Mr McCarthy they didn't support him for Speaker so that he could release the only real "bargaining chip" hostage they have for such limited restrictions. It will be very surprising not to start hearing hyperbolic fulminating about betrayal, treason and a war against the country’s fiscal sanity and financial future.
In the old Roadrunner cartoons, the hapless predator Wile E Coyote – a self-declared "super-genius" – produces one apparently ingenious trap after another, only, in horror, to find himself holding the bomb just as it is about to explode. In the coming days, the House Speaker may discover he, too, is unexpectedly in possession of a round, black, hissing object that his vanished opponent has surreptitiously managed to hand back to him.
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
The specs
The specs: 2019 Audi Q8
Price, base: Dh315,000
Engine: 3.0-litre turbocharged V6
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 340hp @ 3,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm @ 2,250rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.7L / 100km
Brief scores:
Toss: Sindhis, elected to field first
Pakhtoons 137-6 (10 ov)
Fletcher 68 not out; Cutting 2-14
Sindhis 129-8 (10 ov)
Perera 47; Sohail 2-18
Brief scores
Barcelona 2
Pique 36', Alena 87'
Villarreal 0
It's up to you to go green
Nils El Accad, chief executive and owner of Organic Foods and Café, says going green is about “lifestyle and attitude” rather than a “money change”; people need to plan ahead to fill water bottles in advance and take their own bags to the supermarket, he says.
“People always want someone else to do the work; it doesn’t work like that,” he adds. “The first step: you have to consciously make that decision and change.”
When he gets a takeaway, says Mr El Accad, he takes his own glass jars instead of accepting disposable aluminium containers, paper napkins and plastic tubs, cutlery and bags from restaurants.
He also plants his own crops and herbs at home and at the Sheikh Zayed store, from basil and rosemary to beans, squashes and papayas. “If you’re going to water anything, better it be tomatoes and cucumbers, something edible, than grass,” he says.
“All this throwaway plastic - cups, bottles, forks - has to go first,” says Mr El Accad, who has banned all disposable straws, whether plastic or even paper, from the café chain.
One of the latest changes he has implemented at his stores is to offer refills of liquid laundry detergent, to save plastic. The two brands Organic Foods stocks, Organic Larder and Sonnett, are both “triple-certified - you could eat the product”.
The Organic Larder detergent will soon be delivered in 200-litre metal oil drums before being decanted into 20-litre containers in-store.
Customers can refill their bottles at least 30 times before they start to degrade, he says. Organic Larder costs Dh35.75 for one litre and Dh62 for 2.75 litres and refills will cost 15 to 20 per cent less, Mr El Accad says.
But while there are savings to be had, going green tends to come with upfront costs and extra work and planning. Are we ready to refill bottles rather than throw them away? “You have to change,” says Mr El Accad. “I can only make it available.”
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
Strait of Hormuz
Fujairah is a crucial hub for fuel storage and is just outside the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route linking Middle East oil producers to markets in Asia, Europe, North America and beyond.
The strait is 33 km wide at its narrowest point, but the shipping lane is just three km wide in either direction. Almost a fifth of oil consumed across the world passes through the strait.
Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait, a move that would risk inviting geopolitical and economic turmoil.
Last month, Iran issued a new warning that it would block the strait, if it was prevented from using the waterway following a US decision to end exemptions from sanctions for major Iranian oil importers.
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 1 (Gundogan 56')
Shakhtar Donetsk 1 (Solomon 69')
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 2,200m
Winner: Arjan, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer).
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Jap Nazaa, Royston Ffrench, Irfan Ellahi.
6pm: Al Ruwais Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 1,200m
Winner: RB Lam Tara, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinal.
6.30pm: Shadwell Gold Cup Prestige Dh125,000 1,600m
Winner: AF Sanad, Bernardo Pinheiro, Khalifa Al Neyadi.
7pm: Shadwell Farm Stallions Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Patrick Cosgrave, Abdallah Al Hammadi.
7.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 1,600m
Winner: Dubai Canal, Harry Bentley, Satish Seemar.
POWERWASH%20SIMULATOR
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FuturLab%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESquare%20Enix%20Collective%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsole%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENintendo%20Switch%2C%3Cstrong%3E%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPlayStation%204%20%26amp%3B%205%2C%20Xbox%20Series%20X%2FS%20and%20PC%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The past winners
2009 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2010 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2011 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)
2012 - Kimi Raikkonen (Lotus)
2013 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2014 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2015 - Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
2016 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2017 - Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
ITU Abu Dhabi World Triathlon
'The worst thing you can eat'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
Young women have more “financial grit”, but fall behind on investing
In an October survey of young adults aged 16 to 25, Charles Schwab found young women are more driven to reach financial independence than young men (67 per cent versus. 58 per cent). They are more likely to take on extra work to make ends meet and see more value than men in creating a plan to achieve their financial goals. Yet, despite all these good ‘first’ measures, they are investing and saving less than young men – falling early into the financial gender gap.
While the women surveyed report spending 36 per cent less than men, they have far less savings than men ($1,267 versus $2,000) – a nearly 60 per cent difference.
In addition, twice as many young men as women say they would invest spare cash, and almost twice as many young men as women report having investment accounts (though most young adults do not invest at all).
“Despite their good intentions, young women start to fall behind their male counterparts in savings and investing early on in life,” said Carrie Schwab-Pomerantz, senior vice president, Charles Schwab. “They start off showing a strong financial planning mindset, but there is still room for further education when it comes to managing their day-to-day finances.”
Ms Schwab-Pomerantz says parents should be conveying the same messages to boys and girls about money, but should tailor those conversations based on the individual and gender.
"Our study shows that while boys are spending more than girls, they also are saving more. Have open and honest conversations with your daughters about the wage and savings gap," she said. "Teach kids about the importance of investing – especially girls, who as we see in this study, aren’t investing as much. Part of being financially prepared is learning to make the most of your money, and that means investing early and consistently."
BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
Results
6.30pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 (PA) US$100,000 (Dirt) 2,000m, Winner Bandar, Fernando Jara (jockey), Majed Al Jahouri (trainer).
7.05pm Meydan Classic Listed (TB) $175,000 (Turf) 1,600m, Winner Well Of Wisdom, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
7.40pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m, Winner Star Safari, Mickael Barzalona, Charlie Appleby.
8.15pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner Moqarrar, Fabrice Veron, Erwan Charpy.
8.50pm Nad Al Sheba Trophy Group 2 (TB) $300,000 (T) 2,810m, Winner Secret Advisor, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
9.25pm Curlin Stakes Listed (TB) $175,000 (D) 2,000m, Winner Parsimony, William Buick, Doug O’Neill.
10pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m, Winner Simsir, Ronan Whelan, Michael Halford.
10.35pm Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m, Winner Velorum, Mickael Barzalona, Charlie Appleby.
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final:
First leg: Liverpool 5 Roma 2
Second leg: Wednesday, May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
TV: BeIN Sports, 10.45pm (UAE)
Scores
Wales 74-24 Tonga
England 35-15 Japan
Italy 7-26 Australia
if you go
Dark Souls: Remastered
Developer: From Software (remaster by QLOC)
Publisher: Namco Bandai
Price: Dh199
