In the US, Republicans skeptical of former president Donald Trump seem trapped in a nightmarish doom loop. Nothing, it seems, can be done to stop him from once again becoming their party's nominee for president in 2024, and then probably losing to President Joe Biden.
Mr Biden is expected to announce his re-election campaign this week, and he is unlikely to face any serious Democratic challengers. Mr Trump faces several announced competitors while numerous other hopefuls are biding their time. This suits him ideally.
He can rely on about 20-30 per cent of the party's base voters. Unless another candidate in the pack secures higher numbers, the Republican winner-take-all primary system will transform that sizable minority into unstoppable victories. You don't need 50 per cent plus one. To win all of a state's delegates, you just need one more than a runner-up. So, Mr Trump relishes a crowded field.
But are Republicans doomed to eventually nominate Mr Trump again? Can anyone plausibly stand in his way?
For a few months, conventional wisdom held that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was not only a formidable challenger, but had Mr Trump back on his heels, clocking significant leads in most opinion polls.
But many Republicans focused on regaining the White House watched in horror as that lead rapidly dwindled and then reversed, with Mr Trump re-building commanding advantages in virtually every poll. Yet Mr DeSantis hasn't even announced he's a candidate. How did that happen?
The early excitement over the Florida Governor failed to account for several key factors. Mr DeSantis is totally untested on the national stage and looked distinctly unimpressive during a recent book tour that was a proxy for an early campaign.
Presidential elections are, in fact, popularity contests. Mr DeSantis is, by most accounts, a decidedly unpleasant individual, lacking personal charm, particularly in close quarters. Unfortunately, he also lacks Mr Trump's formidable demagogic talents in front of large crowds, and so appears effective neither with big nor small groups.
His most obvious competitive advantage over Mr Trump, 76, is Mr DeSantis' relative youth at 44. Those decades could be a potent weapon against Mr Biden, but we may never find out.
The two have launched very revealingTV attack ads against each other. Mr DeSantis criticised Mr Trump for having been open to cuts in social spending for the elderly. Mr Trump responded by mocking Mr DeSantis' purported use of his fingers to consume pudding on an airplane when he didn't have a spoon.
Mr DeSantis apparently imagines he can win the Republican nomination on policy issues. Mr Trump knows it's all about shamelessly asserting dominance with impunity. He shares his followers' belief that leadership is most clearly demonstrated through bullying in a style borrowed from professional wrestling.
However, Mr Trump has been, as usual, canny. Since leaving office after refusing to acknowledge his defeat and seeking, instead, to overthrow the constitutional system, he has plunged into new depths of extremism. But this was not merely a neurotic symptom.
He has been carefully mapping out new space on the extreme right that has never existed in mainstream American politics – vowing to dismantle much of the government and take bitter revenge against opponents if re-elected, in the spirit of his insistence that the US Constitution should have been "terminated" to allow him to remain in power. Judged by both word and deed, he now poses a far greater threat to the constitutional order than in 2016 or 2020.
In the process, he has blocked any path by which he could be attacked from his political right. What would that look like? What's more extreme than "terminating" the Constitution and seeking "retribution" against opponents? Yet no one can win the Republican nomination by attacking him from his left. He has cleverly both outflanked and boxed in his Republican opponents, leaving them little room to manoeuvre.
It is hard not to suspect Mr DeSantis has squandered his big opportunity and his path to a comeback is not clear.
Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley shows even fewer signs of gaining significant support. Before almost any of the others, she exemplified the conundrum all Mr Trump's Republican opponents face: she feels the need to be perceived as sufficiently pro-Trump not to completely alienate his huge support base, but somehow also needs to make the case that she’s a better choice. That's very tricky. Since leaving her post in his administration, she's been trying to square that circle, with no success.
Trump is also facing an unannounced challenge from his former vice president Mike Pence
Her best bet is for Republicans to conclude they need a woman of colour to erode Democratic support among women and ethnic minorities. But, like all the others, since she is stridently anti-choice, abortion's rise as a dominant issue is disastrous for Republicans in general, and Ms Haley in particular.
The rest of the announced field includes a couple of wealthy non-entities and a trivial talkshow host. But there are some more interesting unannounced candidates, particularly Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina. He is the most prominent African-American Republican, with a style that's essentially a mashup of the Trump/DeSantis brand of dour culture war politics but with a sunny disposition and uplifting tone. His best bet is probably for Mr Trump to lead the party into another atrocious debacle in 2024 and try again in 2028, when there may be more takers.
He can rely on about 20-30 per cent of the party's base voters. Unless another candidate in the pack secures higher numbers, the Republican winner-take-all primary system will transform that sizable minority into unstoppable victories. You don't need 50 per cent plus one.
Mr Trump is also facing an unannounced challenge from his former vice president Mike Pence. The stigma of having followed the Constitution on January 6, 2021 and not unlawfully blocked the certification of Mr Biden's victory has led to Mr Pence being vigorously booed by core Republican audiences in many recent public appearances. Perhaps he'll think better of it after all.
Yet even he won't strongly criticise Mr Trump. That's being left to one declared candidate, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, and an undeclared one, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Neither seem particularly formidable, to put it charitably.
It's very early, and things could change. But it doesn't look as though even criminal trials, or for that matter convictions, are going to be enough to derail Mr Trump. Yet it would probably take a huge unexpected development to create enough space for him to regain the presidency in 2024.
There's a long way to go, but right now Mr Biden looks incredibly well-positioned for a second term in the White House.
WHAT ARE NFTs?
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are tokens that represent ownership of unique items. They allow the tokenisation of things such as art, collectibles and even real estate.
An NFT can have only one official owner at one time. And since they're minted and secured on the Ethereum blockchain, no one can modify the record of ownership, not even copy-paste it into a new one.
This means NFTs are not interchangeable and cannot be exchanged with other items. In contrast, fungible items, such as fiat currencies, can be exchanged because their value defines them rather than their unique properties.
ENGLAND SQUAD
Team: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Ben Te'o, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 Jonny May, 10 George Ford, 9 Ben Youngs, 1 Mako Vunipola, 2 Dylan Hartley, 3 Dan Cole, 4 Joe Launchbury, 5 Maro Itoje, 6 Courtney Lawes, 7 Chris Robshaw, 8 Sam Simmonds
Replacements 16 Jamie George, 17 Alec Hepburn, 18 Harry Williams, 19 George Kruis, 20 Sam Underhill, 21 Danny Care, 22 Jonathan Joseph, 23 Jack Nowell
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
The lowdown
Badla
Rating: 2.5/5
Produced by: Red Chillies, Azure Entertainment
Director: Sujoy Ghosh
Cast: Amitabh Bachchan, Taapsee Pannu, Amrita Singh, Tony Luke
The specs: 2018 Infiniti QX80
Price: base / as tested: Dh335,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 400hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.1L / 100km
The biog
Fatima Al Darmaki is an Emirati widow with three children
She has received 46 certificates of appreciation and excellence throughout her career
She won the 'ideal mother' category at the Minister of Interior Awards for Excellence
Her favourite food is Harees, a slow-cooked porridge-like dish made from boiled wheat berries mixed with chicken
Zayed Sustainability Prize
The Pope's itinerary
Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport
Tributes from the UAE's personal finance community
• Sebastien Aguilar, who heads SimplyFI.org, a non-profit community where people learn to invest Bogleheads’ style
“It is thanks to Jack Bogle’s work that this community exists and thanks to his work that many investors now get the full benefits of long term, buy and hold stock market investing.
Compared to the industry, investing using the common sense approach of a Boglehead saves a lot in costs and guarantees higher returns than the average actively managed fund over the long term.
From a personal perspective, learning how to invest using Bogle’s approach was a turning point in my life. I quickly realised there was no point chasing returns and paying expensive advisers or platforms. Once money is taken care off, you can work on what truly matters, such as family, relationships or other projects. I owe Jack Bogle for that.”
• Sam Instone, director of financial advisory firm AES International
"Thought to have saved investors over a trillion dollars, Jack Bogle’s ideas truly changed the way the world invests. Shaped by his own personal experiences, his philosophy and basic rules for investors challenged the status quo of a self-interested global industry and eventually prevailed. Loathed by many big companies and commission-driven salespeople, he has transformed the way well-informed investors and professional advisers make decisions."
• Demos Kyprianou, a board member of SimplyFI.org
"Jack Bogle for me was a rebel, a revolutionary who changed the industry and gave the little guy like me, a chance. He was also a mentor who inspired me to take the leap and take control of my own finances."
• Steve Cronin, founder of DeadSimpleSaving.com
"Obsessed with reducing fees, Jack Bogle structured Vanguard to be owned by its clients – that way the priority would be fee minimisation for clients rather than profit maximisation for the company.
His real gift to us has been the ability to invest in the stock market (buy and hold for the long term) rather than be forced to speculate (try to make profits in the shorter term) or even worse have others speculate on our behalf.
Bogle has given countless investors the ability to get on with their life while growing their wealth in the background as fast as possible. The Financial Independence movement would barely exist without this."
• Zach Holz, who blogs about financial independence at The Happiest Teacher
"Jack Bogle was one of the greatest forces for wealth democratisation the world has ever seen. He allowed people a way to be free from the parasitical "financial advisers" whose only real concern are the fat fees they get from selling you over-complicated "products" that have caused millions of people all around the world real harm.”
• Tuan Phan, a board member of SimplyFI.org
"In an industry that’s synonymous with greed, Jack Bogle was a lone wolf, swimming against the tide. When others were incentivised to enrich themselves, he stood by the ‘fiduciary’ standard – something that is badly needed in the financial industry of the UAE."
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
The%20specs
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More on Quran memorisation:
Know your Camel lingo
The bairaq is a competition for the best herd of 50 camels, named for the banner its winner takes home
Namoos - a word of congratulations reserved for falconry competitions, camel races and camel pageants. It best translates as 'the pride of victory' - and for competitors, it is priceless
Asayel camels - sleek, short-haired hound-like racers
Majahim - chocolate-brown camels that can grow to weigh two tonnes. They were only valued for milk until camel pageantry took off in the 1990s
Millions Street - the thoroughfare where camels are led and where white 4x4s throng throughout the festival
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Emirates exiles
Will Wilson is not the first player to have attained high-class representative honours after first learning to play rugby on the playing fields of UAE.
Jonny Macdonald
Abu Dhabi-born and raised, the current Jebel Ali Dragons assistant coach was selected to play for Scotland at the Hong Kong Sevens in 2011.
Jordan Onojaife
Having started rugby by chance when the Jumeirah College team were short of players, he later won the World Under 20 Championship with England.
Devante Onojaife
Followed older brother Jordan into England age-group rugby, as well as the pro game at Northampton Saints, but recently switched allegiance to Scotland.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
The years Ramadan fell in May
