Many have wondered how, in the aftermath of the recent Chinese-brokered detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, to think about efforts by Arab states to reintegrate Syria into the region. How might Syrian President Bashar Al Assad’s relations with Iran and Hezbollah affect any rehabilitation? Are we seeing today the components of a roadmap being drawn that would mean a substantive — not just ceremonial — Syrian return to the fold?
Saudi Arabia will host the next Arab League Summit, taking place next month, and is thought to be drafting a pragmatic agenda that complements the new vision and approach of the Saudi leadership. It is an approach that does not rely on improvisation — far from it. Riyadh’s messaging is coherent, even if brief.
Mr Al Assad gradually needs to escape the Iranian grip, because he will not be able to be fully in control of any Syria that lies in the shadow of Iran’s continued dominance. Therefore, he may find that a relinkage with the Arab states — gradually, and as part of a regional deal — will be his salvation from total reliance on Iran and Russia.
Arab states’ offer to Mr Al Assad is thought to include a pledge to help rebuild Syria, to ease its isolation and to create a bridge between it and the outside world. It also includes collective efforts to gradually contain Turkey’s influence, as well as Iran’s. In the view of many countries in the region, greater Arab influence in Syria could be reassuring to Syrians, and it would be in Mr Al Assad’s interest to be part of that effort to reassure instead of antagonising his people. But such an outcome would likely only be achieved in return for binding commitments from Mr Al Assad. These are the elements of a serious deal, not a mere reunion.
Iranian dominance in Syria is a strategic goal for Tehran, and the IRGC commanders will not favour being part of any reduction of their country’s footprint there
In terms of his relations with Hezbollah — which fought alongside Damascus against the Syrian opposition and has become his partner along with Iran — Mr Al Assad would likely be required to gradually disengage.
It is possible, particularly in the aftermath of the Iran-Saudi detente, that Iran would allow some political change in Syria, and that Russia would not mind it. Indeed, Moscow today sees Syria as a burden, and it needs to focus its energy on the war in Ukraine.
But why would Iran agree to such a radical shift? For one thing, it needs to overcome its economic dire straits, as well as its nuclear crisis, which makes it vulnerable to military confrontations, and its political isolation. Therefore, Iran may agree to concessions in the framework of a deal to normalise relations with other Arab states and secure the economic relief this entails, as well as the possibility of US sanctions relief if it abides by its commitments and radically softens its behaviour.
US President Joe Biden’s administration is somewhat troubled by the developments in the Middle East that have put China in the driver’s seat, but, at the same time, Washington is not completely opposed. Indeed, it has said it welcomes developments that could help avert conflict with Iran.
Moreover, the Biden administration is understood to be in favour of Arab states replacing the Astana process led by Russia, Turkey and Iran, by sponsoring a political process in Syria and working to persuade Mr Al Assad to make concessions to the opposition.
It would also be a welcome development for the Biden administration if the efforts of Arab countries that have normalised relations with Israel succeed in creating a climate that could gradually bring Syria into a comprehensive process of de-escalation in its outstanding conflicts with Israel. Today, the broad strategy of Gulf states, in particular, is to reduce, avoid and resolve conflicts throughout the Middle East, through a gradual approach and a qualitatively different kind of diplomatic engagement.
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The aspirations of Saudi diplomacy were explained by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman during the Future Investment Initiative meeting in Riyadh in 2019, when he spoke about the dream he intended to turn into reality by transforming the Middle East into another Europe, becoming far removed from ideological conflicts and extremist policies. Then in the Jeddah Security and Development Summit last year, attended by leaders from the GCC, the US, Egypt, Iraq and Jordan, the Crown Prince affirmed a vision that prioritises security, stability and prosperity, calling on Iran to work with the countries of the region and become part of that vision. Saudi Arabia’s hosting of the Arab League Summit in May will be another important milestone in the context of the pragmatic implementation of this vision, especially in the wake of the agreement with Iran. And Syria could be a testing ground.
If, as many expect, Mr Al Assad is truly ready to replace his reliance on Russia, Iran and Hezbollah with domestic reforms, dialogue with the opposition and accepting the return of Syrian refugees, then regional diplomacy will have delivered a coup. The key, however, is honest and true implementation.
This will not be easy for Mr Al Assad, even if he is persuaded, to get permission from Tehran, which has been a strategic partner for Damascus for decades, to become more independent. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may not be ready to end its pact with the regime in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. This is where the problem lies: Iranian dominance in Syria is a strategic goal for Tehran, and the IRGC commanders will not favour being part of any reduction of their country’s footprint there.
Whatever happens, it is likely to happen only gradually, say those familiar with the process. Just as well — let caution be the compass to trust, and let trust be the destination.
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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UAE
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Japan
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Canada
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WHAT IS GRAPHENE?
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were experimenting with sticky tape and graphite, the material used as lead in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But when they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More coverage from the Future Forum
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What is tokenisation?
Tokenisation refers to the issuance of a blockchain token, which represents a virtually tradable real, tangible asset. A tokenised asset is easily transferable, offers good liquidity, returns and is easily traded on the secondary markets.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Karwaan
Producer: Ronnie Screwvala
Director: Akarsh Khurana
Starring: Irrfan Khan, Dulquer Salmaan, Mithila Palkar
Rating: 4/5
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
THE SPECS
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 275hp at 6,600rpm
Torque: 353Nm from 1,450-4,700rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Top speed: 250kph
Fuel consumption: 6.8L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: Dh146,999
How to join and use Abu Dhabi’s public libraries
• There are six libraries in Abu Dhabi emirate run by the Department of Culture and Tourism, including one in Al Ain and Al Dhafra.
• Libraries are free to visit and visitors can consult books, use online resources and study there. Most are open from 8am to 8pm on weekdays, closed on Fridays and have variable hours on Saturdays, except for Qasr Al Watan which is open from 10am to 8pm every day.
• In order to borrow books, visitors must join the service by providing a passport photograph, Emirates ID and a refundable deposit of Dh400. Members can borrow five books for three weeks, all of which are renewable up to two times online.
• If users do not wish to pay the fee, they can still use the library’s electronic resources for free by simply registering on the website. Once registered, a username and password is provided, allowing remote access.
• For more information visit the library network's website.
The specs
Engine: 0.8-litre four cylinder
Power: 70bhp
Torque: 66Nm
Transmission: four-speed manual
Price: $1,075 new in 1967, now valued at $40,000
On sale: Models from 1966 to 1970
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Swiss fly direct from the UAE to Zurich from Dh2,855 return, including taxes.
The chalet
Chalet N is currently open in winter only, between now and April 21. During the ski season, starting on December 11, a week’s rental costs from €210,000 (Dh898,431) per week for the whole property, which has 22 beds in total, across six suites, three double rooms and a children’s suite. The price includes all scheduled meals, a week’s ski pass, Wi-Fi, parking, transfers between Munich, Innsbruck or Zurich airports and one 50-minute massage per person. Private ski lessons cost from €360 (Dh1,541) per day. Halal food is available on request.
