On the April 4, Sebastien Lecornu, France’s Minister of the Armed Forces, released a new Military Programming Law meant to provide the framework for the country’s defence expenditure during the 2024-2030 period. The government of President Emmanuel Macron has talked of an “historic” budget meant to “transform” its armed forces.
In light of the war in Ukraine and its long-term effect on European security policies, France is determined to remind everyone that since Brexit it remains the de facto biggest military power of the EU. It follows announcements by Germany’s government last February that it would increase its own annual defence budget by €10 billion ($11bn).
At first sight, the new bill submitted by the French government evidences its ambitions: estimated at €413bn, the law represents an increase of more than €100 billion from the previous one for the 2019-2025 period. But the numbers hide a more complex reality. Less than a post-Ukraine military revolution, the bill reflects a compromise that takes stock of several constraints at the strategic, political and economic levels.
First, defence commentators in Paris were quick to point out that the new law does not actually increase the capabilities of French armed forces. Be it for the quantity of its fighter jets, tanks or warships, the government’s decision indicates a status quo if not sometimes a reduction of those items. This may be partly explained by the economic environment — more specifically the inflation rate, which is expected to consume approximately 7 per cent of the total budget (equivalent to about €30bn). Although the government talks of a “war economy” mindset, some claim this is in reality a low-cost war economy.
A second aspect is that the new law is less about building a new military model than about catching up with shortcomings that undermined the readiness of French armed forces for a long time. Despite numerous military interventions across the Sahel and the Middle East, the French armed forces have faced budget cuts in the past two decades, leaving officers frustrated with the feeling that they are constantly asked to do more with less.
The most important area of investment will still be France’s nuclear deterrence
The most important of those shortcomings relates to ammunition stockpiling. Like most European countries, France has seen its ammunition supplies declining since the end of the Cold War. However, the war in Ukraine with its relentless flow of offensives and counteroffensives reminds us of the need to maintain sufficient resources for the long haul.
Given the pledges made by European governments to arm Ukrainian soldiers, the conflict has put unprecedented pressure on the continent’s industries to deliver the weapon stocks needed on the battlefield. The issue goes beyond Europe’s support to Kyiv. A recent parliamentary report in France concluded that the slow pace of production cycles for military supplies would prove untenable were the country to face a high-intensity conflict.
To that end, the new bill also announces €16bn dedicated to the replenishment of its supplies. Likewise, the government promises an increase in personnel as well as in reservists, which will surely have a significant impact on expenditures. There are also significant investments planned for drones and air defence, which would mean €5bn respectively.
But another reason why the military programming law does not reveal any spectacular increase is that the most important area of investment will still be France’s nuclear deterrence. With an annual budget range of between €5bn to €7bn, the nuclear complex remains the biggest component of France’s military strategy. It is unlikely to change with the continuing development of a new ballistic missile and a new generation of nuclear ballistic missile submarines, all expected to enter service sometime in the next decade.
In addition to these operational and financial considerations, this new bill also comes at a difficult time, politically, for the centrist government of Emmanuel Macron. A year after a difficult re-election, the Mr Macron has failed to find a modus operandi with the parliament. In absence of an absolute majority, his party, Renaissance, has tried to build ad hoc coalitions but faced stiff resistance from all oppositions.
This was most recently on display during the contentious debates on Mr Macron’s pension reform, opposed by both the left and right as well as the majority of the public. In March, the reform was eventually imposed on French legislators by using an article of the country’s constitution that allows the government to submit a law without a vote by the National Assembly.
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In that environment, far-left opponents of Mr Macron are likely to challenge any new project pushed by his government. Their obstruction is not without substance. In the past, their leader, Jean-Luc Melenchon, called for reducing France’s costly investments in nuclear submarines — favouring space investments.
Even the right-wing party, the Republicans, argued in the Parliament that the financing of the bill presented by the government was unconvincing. This all suggests that defence expenditure will not be immune to the current climate of partisan politics in Paris.
But beyond the issues related to the economic and political constraints, this new military programming law is also a revealing document on how France sees its future security strategy. In fact, the bill tends to nuance the centrality of the Ukraine war in Paris’s thinking. The scenario of a conventional war is mentioned as the first threat but transnational terrorism is next.
For French strategists, the continuing conflict between Kyiv and Moscow surely calls for better preparation of industrial cycles, but in their minds a ground invasion does not represent a scenario that could apply to France. Even then, French forces are trained to operate under the assumption that European and American allies would join them.
The military model emerging from the document is one that still relies on nuclear deterrence as well as new means to project power beyond France’s borders. In particular, new investments allocated to patrol vessels to defend French territories in the Indo-Pacific reflect the enduring desire of Paris to play a role in the region. These were priorities well before the war in Ukraine. In other words, the conflict may change the way Europeans think about using their armed forces, but not so much how they would use them.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Matt%20Drummond%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlyla%20Browne%2C%20Alice%20Parkinson%2C%20Sam%20Everingham%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
FA Cup final
Chelsea 1
Hazard (22' pen)
Manchester United 0
Man of the match: Eden Hazard (Chelsea)
UAE SQUAD
Omar Abdulrahman (Al Hilal), Ali Khaseif, Ali Mabkhout, Salem Rashed, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Khalfan Mubarak, Zayed Al Ameri, Mohammed Al Attas (Al Jazira), Khalid Essa, Ahmed Barman, Ryan Yaslam, Bandar Al Ahbabi (Al Ain), Habib Fardan, Tariq Ahmed, Mohammed Al Akbari (Al Nasr), Ali Saleh, Ali Salmin (Al Wasl), Adel Al Hosani, Ali Hassan Saleh, Majed Suroor (Sharjah), Ahmed Khalil, Walid Abbas, Majed Hassan, Ismail Al Hammadi (Shabab Al Ahli), Hassan Al Muharrami, Fahad Al Dhahani (Bani Yas), Mohammed Al Shaker (Ajman)
The biog
Name: Salvador Toriano Jr
Age: 59
From: Laguna, The Philippines
Favourite dish: Seabass or Fish and Chips
Hobbies: When he’s not in the restaurant, he still likes to cook, along with walking and meeting up with friends.
The biogs
Name: Zinah Madi
Occupation: Co-founder of Dots and links
Nationality: Syrian
Family: Married, Mother of Tala, 18, Sharif, 14, Kareem, 2
Favourite Quote: “There is only one way to succeed in anything, and that is to give it everything.”
Name: Razan Nabulsi
Occupation: Co-founder of Dots and Links
Nationality: Jordanian
Family: Married, Mother of Yahya, 3.5
Favourite Quote: A Chinese proverb that says: “Be not afraid of moving slowly, be afraid only of standing still.”
What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
The specs: 2018 Maserati Ghibli
Price, base / as tested: Dh269,000 / Dh369,000
Engine: 3.0-litre twin-turbocharged V6
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 355hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm @ 4,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.9L / 100km
Seemar’s top six for the Dubai World Cup Carnival:
1. Reynaldothewizard
2. North America
3. Raven’s Corner
4. Hawkesbury
5. New Maharajah
6. Secret Ambition
More on Quran memorisation:
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EGold%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMagomedomar%20Magomedomarov%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20%2B100kg%0D%3Cbr%3EKhaled%20Al%20Shehi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-62kg%0D%3Cbr%3EFaisal%20Al%20Ketbi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-85kg%0D%3Cbr%3EAsma%20Al%20Hosani%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-52kg%0D%3Cbr%3EShamma%20Al%20Kalbani%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-63kg%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESilver%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EOmar%20Al%20Marzooqi%20%E2%80%93%20Equestrian%20%E2%80%93%20Individual%20showjumping%0D%3Cbr%3EBishrelt%20Khorloodoi%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-52kg%0D%3Cbr%3EKhalid%20Al%20Blooshi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-62kg%0D%3Cbr%3EMohamed%20Al%20Suwaidi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-69kg%0D%3Cbr%3EBalqees%20Abdulla%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-48kg%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBronze%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EHawraa%20Alajmi%20%E2%80%93%20Karate%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20kumite%20-50kg%0D%3Cbr%3EAhmed%20Al%20Mansoori%20%E2%80%93%20Cycling%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20omnium%0D%3Cbr%3EAbdullah%20Al%20Marri%20%E2%80%93%20Equestrian%20%E2%80%93%20Individual%20showjumping%0D%3Cbr%3ETeam%20UAE%20%E2%80%93%20Equestrian%20%E2%80%93%20Team%20showjumping%0D%3Cbr%3EDzhafar%20Kostoev%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-100kg%0D%3Cbr%3ENarmandakh%20Bayanmunkh%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-66kg%0D%3Cbr%3EGrigorian%20Aram%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-90kg%0D%3Cbr%3EMahdi%20Al%20Awlaqi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-77kg%0D%3Cbr%3ESaeed%20Al%20Kubaisi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-85kg%0D%3Cbr%3EShamsa%20Al%20Ameri%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-57kg%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine 60kwh FWD
Battery Rimac 120kwh Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (LiNiMnCoO2) chemistry
Power 204hp Torque 360Nm
Price, base / as tested Dh174,500
Buy farm-fresh food
The UAE is stepping up its game when it comes to platforms for local farms to show off and sell their produce.
In Dubai, visit Emirati Farmers Souq at The Pointe every Saturday from 8am to 2pm, which has produce from Al Ammar Farm, Omar Al Katri Farm, Hikarivege Vegetables, Rashed Farms and Al Khaleej Honey Trading, among others.
In Sharjah, the Aljada residential community will launch a new outdoor farmers’ market every Friday starting this weekend. Manbat will be held from 3pm to 8pm, and will host 30 farmers, local home-grown entrepreneurs and food stalls from the teams behind Badia Farms; Emirates Hydroponics Farms; Modern Organic Farm; Revolution Real; Astraea Farms; and Al Khaleej Food.
In Abu Dhabi, order farm produce from Food Crowd, an online grocery platform that supplies fresh and organic ingredients directly from farms such as Emirates Bio Farm, TFC, Armela Farms and mother company Al Dahra.
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Top investing tips for UAE residents in 2021
Build an emergency fund: Make sure you have enough cash to cover six months of expenses as a buffer against unexpected problems before you begin investing, advises Steve Cronin, the founder of DeadSimpleSaving.com.
Think long-term: When you invest, you need to have a long-term mindset, so don’t worry about momentary ups and downs in the stock market.
Invest worldwide: Diversify your investments globally, ideally by way of a global stock index fund.
Is your money tied up: Avoid anything where you cannot get your money back in full within a month at any time without any penalty.
Skip past the promises: “If an investment product is offering more than 10 per cent return per year, it is either extremely risky or a scam,” Mr Cronin says.
Choose plans with low fees: Make sure that any funds you buy do not charge more than 1 per cent in fees, Mr Cronin says. “If you invest by yourself, you can easily stay below this figure.” Managed funds and commissionable investments often come with higher fees.
Be sceptical about recommendations: If someone suggests an investment to you, ask if they stand to gain, advises Mr Cronin. “If they are receiving commission, they are unlikely to recommend an investment that’s best for you.”
Get financially independent: Mr Cronin advises UAE residents to pursue financial independence. Start with a Google search and improve your knowledge via expat investing websites or Facebook groups such as SimplyFI.
PFA Team of the Year: David de Gea, Kyle Walker, Jan Vertonghen, Nicolas Otamendi, Marcos Alonso, David Silva, Kevin De Bruyne, Christian Eriksen, Harry Kane, Mohamed Salah, Sergio Aguero
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Company profile
Name: Infinite8
Based: Dubai
Launch year: 2017
Number of employees: 90
Sector: Online gaming industry
Funding: $1.2m from a UAE angel investor
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
