The recent Saudi-Iranian reconciliation is expected to create a positive shock in Lebanon, whose parliament has been struggling to elect a president since last October. However, the mechanisms of a compromise remain unclear. Yet the chances are that one person, the Druze leader Walid Joumblatt, will play a significant role in producing a candidate who can appeal to all sides.
A few days before the Saudi-Iranian agreement was signed in Beijing, Hezbollah officially endorsed Suleiman Franjieh as its candidate for the presidency. In retrospect, the move was an astute one. Probably knowing the accord would be signed, the party realised that it was necessary to have a candidate in hand to prepare for negotiations over a consensual figure that the reconciliation would invariably impose on the Lebanese parties.
The problem for Mr Franjieh is twofold: Until now he doesn’t have a majority in parliament that would allow him to win an election, and he is opposed by the three main Maronite Christian parties, which would deny him any communal legitimacy, since presidents come from the Maronite community. Even on the unlikely chance that he could be voted into office, his term would be highly contentious because of hostility from within his community.
This suggests that Mr Franjieh is really more of a bargaining chip for Hezbollah and its allied Shiite party, the Amal Movement. Yet until now, both continue to insist that they will not give up on their candidate. To most people, this is merely a ploy to ensure that any alternative candidate is closer to one that both parties favour. But what mechanism would lead to such a figure?
If Hezbollah and Amal see that a Franjieh victory is out of reach, the most probable scenario is that they will make this known to their candidate, and Mr Franjieh will declare that he is not in the running. Indeed, he never officially announced his candidacy, precisely to avoid the humiliation of being forced to backtrack on this front.
In that case, the search for a compromise would begin, and two figures could play a role in this: Mr Joumblatt and the parliament speaker Nabih Berri, the head of Amal, whose sway in the legislature would be essential to rallying parliamentary blocs to a compromise figure.
The Druze leader is an experienced political operator and a subtle reader of Lebanon’s political landscape, whose openings he knows how to exploit
In early February, Mr Joumblatt initiated contacts to find a candidate who could appeal to the contending parliamentary blocs. He began his efforts by meeting with a Hezbollah delegation, probably to get a sense of where the party stood. He also started shooting down candidacies that would be perceived as provocative by Hezbollah or its political rivals.
Mr Joumblatt also proposed the names of several Maronite candidates who fit the profile that he believed would best appeal to the opposing blocs. In doing so, the Druze leader positioned himself as a king-maker, but also someone with the local, regional and international contacts to help midwife a solution. This brought him back to the centre on the presidency.
The regional and international dimension is not negligible in choosing a president. Saudi Arabia, through its ambassador in Beirut, made it clear the kingdom would not welcome Mr Franjieh. The French, in turn, reportedly supported his candidacy, assuming that Hezbollah had to be satisfied. However, Mr Joumblatt, apparently agreeing with the Saudis, has stated that Mr Franjieh would not be seen as a unifying figure. Since then, there have been unconfirmed reports in Beirut that Paris was leaning in the same direction.
Mr Joumblatt’s interest in finding a compromise stems from his relationship with the Maronite community. A significant portion of the electorate of the regions under the Druze leader’s influence is Maronite, and Mr Joumblatt always seeks to ensure that the community will not turn against him, as it could threaten his traditional leadership.
Normally, Mr Joumblatt has dominated elections in his geographical area, the Shouf, by playing the Christian electorate off against the Sunni electorate – each of which has a third of votes, alongside Druze voters, who to a significant extent support their leader. Today, however, with the Sunni community in disarray, Mr Joumblatt has less certitude of how Sunnis and Christians might vote, so that he wants to ensure that any new Maronite president will not try to turn Christian voters against Mr Joumblatt’s candidates.
Mr Joumblatt’s priority today is above all to anchor the leadership of his son, Taymour, who has taken over the Druze leader’s parliamentary seat. Therefore, if he can help broker a settlement on the presidency, this would greatly strengthen Mr Joumblatt’s position under any new presidential mandate, and by extension reinforce the younger Joumblatt’s standing.
The Druze leader is an experienced political operator and a subtle reader of Lebanon’s political landscape, whose openings he knows how to exploit. When he presented his initiative weeks ago, he wanted to send a message, not for the first time, that given the fact that his bloc effectively holds the balance in parliament, any solution had to pass by him.
Mr Joumblatt represents a community that may number less than 200,000 people. Therefore, punching above his weight is a necessity for the Druze leader to remain relevant. Until now, he has largely succeeded in doing so.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Abdul Jabar Qahraman was meeting supporters in his campaign office in the southern Afghan province of Helmand when a bomb hidden under a sofa exploded on Wednesday.
The blast in the provincial capital Lashkar Gah killed the Afghan election candidate and at least another three people, Interior Minister Wais Ahmad Barmak told reporters. Another three were wounded, while three suspects were detained, he said.
The Taliban – which controls much of Helmand and has vowed to disrupt the October 20 parliamentary elections – claimed responsibility for the attack.
Mr Qahraman was at least the 10th candidate killed so far during the campaign season, and the second from Lashkar Gah this month. Another candidate, Saleh Mohammad Asikzai, was among eight people killed in a suicide attack last week. Most of the slain candidates were murdered in targeted assassinations, including Avtar Singh Khalsa, the first Afghan Sikh to run for the lower house of the parliament.
The same week the Taliban warned candidates to withdraw from the elections. On Wednesday the group issued fresh warnings, calling on educational workers to stop schools from being used as polling centres.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
SPECS
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Tips to stay safe during hot weather
- Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
- Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
- Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
- Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
- Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
- Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
- Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
FIGHT CARD
Fights start from 6pm Friday, January 31
Catchweight 82kg
Piotr Kuberski (POL) v Ahmed Saeb (IRQ)
Women’s bantamweight
Cornelia Holm (SWE) v Corinne Laframboise (CAN)
Welterweight
Omar Hussein (JOR) v Vitalii Stoian (UKR)
Welterweight
Josh Togo (LEB) v Ali Dyusenov (UZB)
Flyweight
Isaac Pimentel (BRA) v Delfin Nawen (PHI)
Catchweight 80kg
Seb Eubank (GBR) v Mohamed El Mokadem (EGY)
Lightweight
Mohammad Yahya (UAE) v Ramadan Noaman (EGY)
Lightweight
Alan Omer (GER) v Reydon Romero (PHI)
Welterweight
Ahmed Labban (LEB) v Juho Valamaa (FIN)
Featherweight
Elias Boudegzdame (ALG) v Austin Arnett (USA)
Super heavyweight
Roman Wehbe (LEB) v Maciej Sosnowski (POL)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
THE SPECS
Engine: 4.4-litre V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 523hp
Torque: 750Nm
Price: Dh469,000
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The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
Game Of Thrones Season Seven: A Bluffers Guide
Want to sound on message about the biggest show on television without actually watching it? Best not to get locked into the labyrinthine tales of revenge and royalty: as Isaac Hempstead Wright put it, all you really need to know from now on is that there’s going to be a huge fight between humans and the armies of undead White Walkers.
The season ended with a dragon captured by the Night King blowing apart the huge wall of ice that separates the human world from its less appealing counterpart. Not that some of the humans in Westeros have been particularly appealing, either.
Anyway, the White Walkers are now free to cause any kind of havoc they wish, and as Liam Cunningham told us: “Westeros may be zombie land after the Night King has finished.” If the various human factions don’t put aside their differences in season 8, we could be looking at The Walking Dead: The Medieval Years.
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
