When Michel Aoun left the Lebanese presidency last October, several observers assumed that finding a successor would be relatively easy, not least because none of the major political parties had an interest in blocking the election of a new president. Four months later, however, no compromise solution has been found, and many are wondering when, or if, there will be an agreement anytime soon.
The contours of a broader arrangement are in place, but for now seem to be at a standstill. They involve a consensus among regional and international powers and local political actors. It is increasingly clear that, given the severe economic crisis in Lebanon and the regional role of Hezbollah, a new president will have to satisfy a number of conditions. He (or she) has to be acceptable to regional states such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, and must have the confidence of the US and France.
Iran and Hezbollah seek a president who will not threaten the party’s status in Lebanon, while at the same time any new head of state must be able to show regional and international actors that he or she will not undermine their expectations. For Saudi Arabia and the western states, that means a president who will preserve good relations with Lebanon's Arab partners while also implementing much-delayed economic reform.
A few weeks ago, five countries – the US, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt – held a meeting in Paris to outline the profile of the candidate they sought. They have underlined time and again the need for a consensual president who would implement reform, without ties to the corrupt patronage networks in the country. However, what does the road map the five have laid out mean in practical terms?
Saudi Arabia will not invest itself on the Lebanese front for as long as Hezbollah is active in Yemen
The first thing it apparently means is that Saudi Arabia will not invest itself on the Lebanese front for as long as Hezbollah is active in Yemen. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati confirmed this in an interview with Al-Jadeed TV last week when he described what Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had told him: “There is a party from Lebanon that is planning and plotting against Saudi Arabia in Yemen … If there is any aid to Lebanon, [the Crown Prince said he was] afraid this party could benefit.”
If Saudi Arabia holds back in Lebanon, this will put a brake on other Arab states, not least Qatar, which has played an axial role in trying to find a solution, given the fact that it can speak to all sides in the deadlock and act as a mediator. After having taken a more proactive line on the presidential election weeks ago, as confirmed by Arab diplomats, the Qataris reportedly stepped back.
What is interesting, however, is that Hezbollah and its allies have indicated a willingness to engage with the Gulf states. In an article last November, they floated a trial balloon through a media outlet affiliated with them, Al-Akhbar newspaper. In it, the editor, Ibrahim Amin, suggested a quid pro quo, whereby Hezbollah and its allies would choose a president and Saudi Arabia and its local allies would select a prime minister. Mr Amin even named names: Suleiman Franjieh as president and Nawaf Salam, a former Lebanese ambassador to the UN, as prime minister.
While Saudi Arabia had no reason to react to a newspaper story, the message was clear. After years of trying to block the Gulf states out of Lebanon, Hezbollah was suggesting a compromise. If there were doubts, a meeting was held in Beirut in early February between a representative of Lebanese Speaker Nabih Berri, who is also leader of the Amal Movement, and Walid Bukhari, the Saudi ambassador. Mr Berri’s representative reportedly stated that Hezbollah and Amal “sought a calming of relations with Saudi Arabia”.
In an interview published on February 23, Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s deputy secretary general, also affirmed that the president the party sought was someone who, among other things, could “establish relations with the Arab countries”.
The shift in Hezbollah’s position may be tied to the party’s realisation that the situation in Lebanon is so dire that the country cannot advance without a measure of Arab backing. Yet adding Mr Mikati’s remarks to the mix, it is clear that Riyadh will not reconsider its position on Lebanon until Iran and Hezbollah cede something in Yemen.
This suggests that the election of a president will remain blocked. Nor are the local dimensions preventing an election any less intricate. Hezbollah would like to see Mr Franjieh elected, but for now he faces major obstacles. Notably, the two major Christian parties, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and the Lebanese Forces, oppose him. The FPM, until recently, was a Hezbollah ally, while the Lebanese Forces is close to Riyadh.
Without Christian backing, Mr Franjieh (who is also a Maronite Christian, as are all presidents) would not have communal legitimacy, handicapping his presidency. Hezbollah and Amal would like to secure the votes needed in parliament to bring him in, but it is unlikely they can do so. Moreover, the FPM and Hezbollah have unofficially declared dead the agreement that bound them, signed in 2006, as FPM leader Gebran Bassil had expected the party to support his candidacy.
The only way out of the impasse is for local and regional actors to reach an agreement that takes all their preferences into consideration. It is conceivable that a package deal can be worked out eventually. But for now, even if talks are taking place behind the scenes, a positive outcome remains elusive, until one side makes a serious concession.
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
WORLD RECORD FEES FOR GOALKEEPERS
1) Kepa Arrizabalaga, Athletic Bilbao to Chelsea (£72m)
2) Alisson, Roma to Liverpool (£67m)
3) Ederson, Benfica to Manchester City (£35m)
4) Gianluigi Buffon, Parma to Juventus (£33m)
5) Angelo Peruzzi, Inter Milan to Lazio (£15.7m
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
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Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
TALE OF THE TAPE
Manny Pacquiao
Record: 59-6-2 (38 KOs)
Age: 38
Weight: 146lbs
Height: 166cm
Reach: 170cm
Jeff Horn
Record: 16-0-1 (11 KOs)
Age: 29
Weight: 146.2lbs
Height: 175cm
Reach: 173cm
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 2 (Mahrez 04', Ake 84')
Leicester City 5 (Vardy 37' pen, 54', 58' pen, Maddison 77', Tielemans 88' pen)
Man of the match: Jamie Vardy (Leicester City)
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The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
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MORE ON TURKEY'S SYRIA OFFENCE
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'The Woman in the House Across the Street from the Girl in the Window'
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Stars:Kristen Bell
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INFO
What: DP World Tour Championship
When: November 21-24
Where: Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai
Tickets: www.ticketmaster.ae.
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
Important questions to consider
1. Where on the plane does my pet travel?
There are different types of travel available for pets:
- Manifest cargo
- Excess luggage in the hold
- Excess luggage in the cabin
Each option is safe. The feasibility of each option is based on the size and breed of your pet, the airline they are traveling on and country they are travelling to.
2. What is the difference between my pet traveling as manifest cargo or as excess luggage?
If traveling as manifest cargo, your pet is traveling in the front hold of the plane and can travel with or without you being on the same plane. The cost of your pets travel is based on volumetric weight, in other words, the size of their travel crate.
If traveling as excess luggage, your pet will be in the rear hold of the plane and must be traveling under the ticket of a human passenger. The cost of your pets travel is based on the actual (combined) weight of your pet in their crate.
3. What happens when my pet arrives in the country they are traveling to?
As soon as the flight arrives, your pet will be taken from the plane straight to the airport terminal.
If your pet is traveling as excess luggage, they will taken to the oversized luggage area in the arrival hall. Once you clear passport control, you will be able to collect them at the same time as your normal luggage. As you exit the airport via the ‘something to declare’ customs channel you will be asked to present your pets travel paperwork to the customs official and / or the vet on duty.
If your pet is traveling as manifest cargo, they will be taken to the Animal Reception Centre. There, their documentation will be reviewed by the staff of the ARC to ensure all is in order. At the same time, relevant customs formalities will be completed by staff based at the arriving airport.
4. How long does the travel paperwork and other travel preparations take?
This depends entirely on the location that your pet is traveling to. Your pet relocation compnay will provide you with an accurate timeline of how long the relevant preparations will take and at what point in the process the various steps must be taken.
In some cases they can get your pet ‘travel ready’ in a few days. In others it can be up to six months or more.
5. What vaccinations does my pet need to travel?
Regardless of where your pet is traveling, they will need certain vaccinations. The exact vaccinations they need are entirely dependent on the location they are traveling to. The one vaccination that is mandatory for every country your pet may travel to is a rabies vaccination.
Other vaccinations may also be necessary. These will be advised to you as relevant. In every situation, it is essential to keep your vaccinations current and to not miss a due date, even by one day. To do so could severely hinder your pets travel plans.
Source: Pawsome Pets UAE
Federer's 11 Wimbledon finals
2003 Beat Mark Philippoussis
2004 Beat Andy Roddick
2005 Beat Andy Roddick
2006 Beat Rafael Nadal
2007 Beat Rafael Nadal
2008 Lost to Rafael Nadal
2009 Beat Andy Roddick
2012 Beat Andy Murray
2014 Lost to Novak Djokovic
2015 Lost to Novak Djokovic
2017 Beat Marin Cilic
