It isn't too early to talk about how Turkey's tragedy could have been avoided


Sinan Ulgen
Sinan Ulgen
  • English
  • Arabic

February 14, 2023

Disaster struck in the early hours of last Monday. A series of large earthquakes razed to the ground more than 6,000 buildings in the south-east of Turkey. Once the total number of casualties is known, this disaster is likely to rank among the deadliest earthquakes of the century. It is important, therefore, to assess the effectiveness of the Turkish government’s response to this disaster, but possibly even more importantly, to understand whether this calamity could have been avoided.

Since the early hours of the earthquake, Turkish government agencies and civil society have mobilised for the relief efforts. The international community has also moved rapidly with, at the last count, a hundred countries sending relief teams or disaster assistance to the region. This list of countries includes Greece, Armenia and Israel, raising hopes that this tragedy could unleash a wave of diplomatic rapprochement. And yet, with an affected geography spanning 450 kilometres, including 11 provinces with a total population of 15 million, the effort inevitably remains incommensurate with the size of the challenge. As a result, there is heavy criticism on the ground for the inadequacy of the state response. Most critically, in the first 24 hours, efforts relied mostly on AFAD, the civilian disaster response agency. But AFAD was unable to move rapidly to a system of decentralised decision making and co-ordination that would have allowed other actors such as the army of volunteers or the international teams to contribute more rapidly to ongoing rescue operations. In addition, the capacity of the country’s large-scale and well-endowed military was not put to effective use in a timely manner. Turkey’s thorny history of civil-military relations has come to haunt the relief response.

A rescue worker AFAD near the rubble of a collapsed residential building in Hatay on Sunday. Bloomberg
A rescue worker AFAD near the rubble of a collapsed residential building in Hatay on Sunday. Bloomberg
The hope is that this tragedy can finally change attitudes

Now with hopes dimming every passing hour for saving more people under the rubble, the challenge will be equally enormous. Turkey will need to cater to the immediate needs of, at the very least, hundreds of thousands of people who have been left homeless and without shelter. Even if their homes are still standing, it is very doubtful if they can return with the risks of aftershocks. Given the level of destruction of the overall infrastructure and the physical capacity to deliver core health and transport services, a return to normality in the distressed regions is, at best, months away. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised, for instance, the construction of permanent housing for all the internally displaced within a year.

Going forward, it will be necessary to ask whether Turkey could have avoided this catastrophe. And the response has to be an unambivalent “yes”. There are other countries in the world such as Japan that sit, just like Turkey, on critical fault lines. They also experience large-scale earthquakes. But unlike Turkey, their social contract has generated an effective response to the risk of natural disaster. Large-scale earthquakes in those countries do not lead to similar human losses. In return, Turkey has most tragically failed to emulate these countries in terms of the necessary reforms that would have enhanced resilience to natural disasters.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan talks with women during his visit to the hard-hit south-eastern Turkish city of Diyarbakir last week. AFP
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan talks with women during his visit to the hard-hit south-eastern Turkish city of Diyarbakir last week. AFP

On the contrary, since the transition to parliamentary democracy in 1946, society has incentivised governments to lower construction costs – and thus lower standards. In that period, governments passed 22 different bills to grant amnesties to informal buildings. In the last decade, under AK Party rule, 10 such laws have been adopted. Before tragedy struck, there was even a new initiative to promulgate yet another amnesty ahead of the critical elections this year. These amnesties, seen as populist measures, have created perverse incentives. Not only do they allow sub-standard constructions to be legalised, but they also motivate builders to continue to build them in that way knowing that with time, their constructions will in any case be licensed by way of a new amnesty. And yet, this crowd pleaser has now turned into a crowd killer. Many of the people who perished in last week’s earthquake lived in homes that did not conform to the stringent building regulations.

With the ever-growing risk, according to geologists, that a major earthquake is expected in Istanbul, the economic, industrial and cultural capital of the country, Turkey cannot anymore afford this warped version of its social contract. The hope is that this tragedy can finally change attitudes and raise awareness about change. In that sense, the nearness of the election date is possibly a good thing. The national debate will now necessarily shift to the issue of disaster management. And the outcome of this closely contested race will now be determined, in all likelihood, by whether the governing side led by Mr Erdogan’s AK Party or the main opposition led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s CHP will ultimately convince the electorate that they have a better plan to save Turkey from its next tragedy.

Tearful appearance

Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday. 

Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow. 

She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.

A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.

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The specs

BMW M8 Competition Coupe

Engine 4.4-litre twin-turbo V8

Power 625hp at 6,000rpm

Torque 750Nm from 1,800-5,800rpm

Gearbox Eight-speed paddleshift auto

Acceleration 0-100kph in 3.2 sec

Top speed 305kph

Fuel economy, combined 10.6L / 100km

Price from Dh700,000 (estimate)

On sale Jan/Feb 2020
 

Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
  • Priority access to new homes from participating developers
  • Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
  • Flexible payment plans from developers
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Sanju

Produced: Vidhu Vinod Chopra, Rajkumar Hirani

Director: Rajkumar Hirani

Cast: Ranbir Kapoor, Vicky Kaushal, Paresh Rawal, Anushka Sharma, Manish’s Koirala, Dia Mirza, Sonam Kapoor, Jim Sarbh, Boman Irani

Rating: 3.5 stars

ESSENTIALS

The flights

Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.

The hotels

Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.

The tours

A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages. 

'Of Love & War'
Lynsey Addario, Penguin Press

Ahmed Raza

UAE cricket captain

Age: 31

Born: Sharjah

Role: Left-arm spinner

One-day internationals: 31 matches, 35 wickets, average 31.4, economy rate 3.95

T20 internationals: 41 matches, 29 wickets, average 30.3, economy rate 6.28

What are the influencer academy modules?
  1. Mastery of audio-visual content creation. 
  2. Cinematography, shots and movement.
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Copa del Rey

Semi-final, first leg

Barcelona 1 (Malcom 57')
Real Madrid (Vazquez 6')

Second leg, February 27

The Cairo Statement

 1: Commit to countering all types of terrorism and extremism in all their manifestations

2: Denounce violence and the rhetoric of hatred

3: Adhere to the full compliance with the Riyadh accord of 2014 and the subsequent meeting and executive procedures approved in 2014 by the GCC  

4: Comply with all recommendations of the Summit between the US and Muslim countries held in May 2017 in Saudi Arabia.

5: Refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of countries and of supporting rogue entities.

6: Carry out the responsibility of all the countries with the international community to counter all manifestations of extremism and terrorism that threaten international peace and security

Ain Dubai in numbers

126: The length in metres of the legs supporting the structure

1 football pitch: The length of each permanent spoke is longer than a professional soccer pitch

16 A380 Airbuses: The equivalent weight of the wheel rim.

9,000 tonnes: The amount of steel used to construct the project.

5 tonnes: The weight of each permanent spoke that is holding the wheel rim in place

192: The amount of cable wires used to create the wheel. They measure a distance of 2,4000km in total, the equivalent of the distance between Dubai and Cairo.

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  • Premier League-standard football pitch
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  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills

Squad: Majed Naser, Abdulaziz Sanqour, Walid Abbas, Khamis Esmail, Habib Fardan, Mohammed Marzouq (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai), Khalid Essa, Muhanad Salem, Mohammed Ahmed, Ismail Ahmed, Ahmed Barman,  Amer Abdulrahman, Omar Abdulrahman (Al Ain), Ali Khaseif, Fares Juma, Mohammed Fawzi, Khalfan Mubarak, Mohammed Jamal, Ahmed Al Attas (Al Jazira), Ahmed Rashid, Mohammed Al Akbari (Al Wahda), Tariq Ahmed, Mahmoud Khamis, Khalifa Mubarak, Jassim Yaqoub (Al Nasr), Ali Salmeen (Al Wasl), Yousef Saeed (Sharjah), Suhail Al Nubi (Baniyas)

THE POPE'S ITINERARY

Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport


Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial


Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport

Company Profile

Founders: Tamara Hachem and Yazid Erman
Based: Dubai
Launched: September 2019
Sector: health technology
Stage: seed
Investors: Oman Technology Fund, angel investor and grants from Sharjah's Sheraa and Ma'an Abu Dhabi

The Lost Letters of William Woolf
Helen Cullen, Graydon House 

At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

 

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

 

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances

The specs

Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8

Transmission: nine-speed

Power: 542bhp

Torque: 700Nm

Price: Dh848,000

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PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES

Tuesday (UAE kick-off times)

Leicester City v Brighton (9pm)

Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United (11.15pm)

Wednesday

Manchester United v Sheffield United (9pm)

Newcastle United v Aston Villa (9pm)

Norwich City v Everton (9pm)

Wolves v Bournemouth (9pm)

Liverpool v Crystal Palace (11.15pm)

Thursday

Burnley v Watford (9pm)

Southampton v Arsenal (9pm)

Chelsea v Manchester City (11.15pm)

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Engine: 2.3-litre, turbo four-cylinder

Transmission: 10-speed auto

Power: 300hp

Torque: 420Nm

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Mane points for safe home colouring
  • Natural and grey hair takes colour differently than chemically treated hair
  • Taking hair from a dark to a light colour should involve a slow transition through warmer stages of colour
  • When choosing a colour (especially a lighter tone), allow for a natural lift of warmth
  • Most modern hair colours are technique-based, in that they require a confident hand and taught skills
  • If you decide to be brave and go for it, seek professional advice and use a semi-permanent colour
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Some of Darwish's last words

"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008

His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.

Updated: February 14, 2023, 2:28 PM`