The shifting geopolitics of the South Caucasus is fast emerging as a new global flashpoint. It is not clear if last week’s attack on the embassy of Azerbaijan in Tehran is linked to heightened tensions between Iran and Baku. For now, the presidents of both countries have opted to calm down the war of words. Developments in Isfahan and Tehran on Sunday, raise further concerns. Still, there are key reasons to believe that this downward spiral in relations cannot be stopped unless both countries do much more to put relations back on a constructive track.
For sure, there is much that Iran and Azerbaijan can do together – namely in the area of economic co-operation. This could include completing the much-touted International North-South Corridor (INSC) that traverse both countries as it provides a new trade transit route from the Indian Ocean to Europe. On the other hand, the respective leaderships of both Iran and Azerbaijan have made certain geopolitical calculations that are increasingly likely to make cordial relations a difficult objective to achieve.
First, let’s set the scene. Iran and Azerbaijan are close on many levels. Both are Shiite Muslim-majority countries. There are about 10 million people living in Azerbaijan but an estimated 15-20 million ethnic Azerbaijanis live in Iran. This separation came about when the Persian Empire lost its Caucasian territories to the Russians in the 19th century. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Iran welcomed the birth of the Republic of Azerbaijan and it never seriously invested much in exporting its Islamist ideology to its Shiite brethren to the north.
There were two simple reasons. First, after centuries of Russian and Soviet rule, the independent Azerbaijanis were by and large unreceptive to Tehran’s reactionary Islamist ideology. The second, much more important, reason was that Moscow from the mid-1990s onwards made it clear it did not look kindly to any Iranian (or other Middle Eastern) encroachment in the former Soviet south territories. Iran, already alienated from the West, chose not to upset Moscow’s sensitivities. And for much of the time since the Soviet collapse, Tehran respected Russia’s dominion over the South Caucasus.
This state of affairs came crushing down in 2020. This is the year Baku fought a new war with Armenia over disputed territories. Tehran was blindsided by both Azerbaijan’s military triumph but also the war’s broader geopolitical implications. Baku’s military victory over Armenia had been greatly assisted by two of Iran’s regional rivals, Turkey and Israel.
Not only did Tehran wake up to a deeper Israeli and Turkish footprint on its northern border but Russia’s inability to keep Turkey and Israel out of the South Caucasus was probably the bigger shock to Tehran. Realising that Moscow’s sway in the region had diminished, and was unlikely to return any time soon since Moscow became increasingly focused on its military mission in Ukraine, the Iranian government was forced to look for ways to regain influence in the region.
In a nutshell, Tehran chose to pursue a carrot and stick strategy to shape Baku’s next move. The two countries could focus on expanding economic and even military co-operation if only Azerbaijan refused to become a partner for Israel and Turkey, in their separate rivalries with Iran. If Baku refused to oblige Iran, then Tehran would look for ways to hit back, including raising questions about Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity.
And Iran has been hellbent in opposing a key effort by Baku to create a land corridor – Zangezur – from Azerbaijan proper to its exclave of Nakhchivan that borders Turkey. Baku’s planned corridor would run through Armenian territory. Tehran sees this as an effort by Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, to cut it off from Armenia, the Christian nation Tehran has consistently backed in its conflict with Azerbaijan.
Iranian officials claim that the Israelis too want to use Azerbaijani territory to launch subversive operations against Iran. Tehran’s ambassador in Baku recently warned that Iran has no desire to see Azerbaijan become a battleground for Iranian-Israeli rivalry but that what happens next would be up to Baku. To Tehran’s deep frustration, Baku instead on January 11 appointed its first ever ambassador to Israel. The Iranians read this to mean that Baku has ultimately chosen to side with Israel in its regional rivalry with Iran.
Comment from The National
It can be argued that Tehran is the guiltiest in creating this uncomfortable geopolitical situation for itself. Iran for too long chose to give priority to Russian interests in the South Caucasus. Nor were Iranian officials monitoring Moscow’s declining sway in this part of the world. Finally, Tehran’s fixation over the past decade on intervening in the Arab world – from Lebanon to Syria to Iraq and Yemen – meant that it deprioritised the South Caucasus in its foreign policy.
It was too late by the time Tehran awakened to the new realities of the South Caucasus after 2020. Tehran will continue to play catchup but it has to admit that its policy of carrots and sticks toward Baku has leaned too much on the latter. Tehran needs to do more to incentivise Baku to shape its next regional move.
If this is not addressed, then, in a dangerous tit-for-tat, the Iranian authorities might hint that Azerbaijan has historically been part of Iran. The leadership in Baku could retaliate by claiming to represent the many millions-strong ethnic-Azerbaijani population living inside Iran’s borders. It is truly a tinderbox. And yet, both Tehran and Baku have solid reasons to step away from the brink.
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The%20specs
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Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Racecard
6.30pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah Group Two (PA) US$55,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.05pm: Meydan Trophy (TB) $100,000 (Turf) 1,900m
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (D) 1,200m
8.15pm: Balanchine Group Two (TB) $250,000 (T) 1,800m
8.50pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,000m
9.25pm: Firebreak Stakes Group Three (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,600m
10pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,410m
The National selections: 6.30pm: RM Lam Tara, 7.05pm: Al Mukhtar Star, 7.40pm: Bochart, 8.15pm: Magic Lily, 8.50pm: Roulston Scar, 9.25pm: Quip, 10pm: Jalmoud
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
THREE
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SCHEDULE
Saturday, April 20: 11am to 7pm - Abu Dhabi World Jiu-Jitsu Festival and Para jiu-jitsu.
Sunday, April 21: 11am to 6pm - Abu Dhabi World Youth (female) Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Monday, April 22: 11am to 6pm - Abu Dhabi World Youth (male) Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Tuesday, April 23: 11am-6pm Abu Dhabi World Masters Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Wednesday, April 24: 11am-6pm Abu Dhabi World Professional Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Thursday, April 25: 11am-5pm Abu Dhabi World Professional Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Friday, April 26: 3pm to 6pm Finals of the Abu Dhabi World Professional Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Saturday, April 27: 4pm and 8pm awards ceremony.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Brief scoreline:
Manchester United 0
Manchester City 2
Bernardo Silva 54', Sane 66'
Brief scores
Barcelona 2
Pique 36', Alena 87'
Villarreal 0
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The schedule
December 5 - 23: Shooting competition, Al Dhafra Shooting Club
December 9 - 24: Handicrafts competition, from 4pm until 10pm, Heritage Souq
December 11 - 20: Dates competition, from 4pm
December 12 - 20: Sour milk competition
December 13: Falcon beauty competition
December 14 and 20: Saluki races
December 15: Arabian horse races, from 4pm
December 16 - 19: Falconry competition
December 18: Camel milk competition, from 7.30 - 9.30 am
December 20 and 21: Sheep beauty competition, from 10am
December 22: The best herd of 30 camels
Prop idols
Girls full-contact rugby may be in its infancy in the Middle East, but there are already a number of role models for players to look up to.
Sophie Shams (Dubai Exiles mini, England sevens international)
An Emirati student who is blazing a trail in rugby. She first learnt the game at Dubai Exiles and captained her JESS Primary school team. After going to study geophysics at university in the UK, she scored a sensational try in a cup final at Twickenham. She has played for England sevens, and is now contracted to top Premiership club Saracens.
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Seren Gough-Walters (Sharjah Wanderers mini, Wales rugby league international)
Few players anywhere will have taken a more circuitous route to playing rugby on Sky Sports. Gough-Walters was born in Al Wasl Hospital in Dubai, raised in Sharjah, did not take up rugby seriously till she was 15, has a master’s in global governance and ethics, and once worked as an immigration officer at the British Embassy in Abu Dhabi. In the summer of 2021 she played for Wales against England in rugby league, in a match that was broadcast live on TV.
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Erin King (Dubai Hurricanes mini, Ireland sevens international)
Aged five, Australia-born King went to Dubai Hurricanes training at The Sevens with her brothers. She immediately struck up a deep affection for rugby. She returned to the city at the end of last year to play at the Dubai Rugby Sevens in the colours of Ireland in the Women’s World Series tournament on Pitch 1.
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Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
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How to help or find other cats to adopt
