On the global landscape today, there appears to be a lack of international mechanisms to deter reckless political and military decisions, making threats such as nuclear war a possibility. This is down to smaller scales, where certain regional actors engage in rogue behaviour, confident that the hands of justice will never touch them.
The theoretical mechanisms of the UN in New York, International Tribunals in the Hague, or human rights forums in Geneva are paralysed by political and bureaucratic calculations. As a result, there is no international mechanism for accountability left.
The developments of the Ukraine war suggest we are on the verge of entering a war without rules between Russia and the US-led Nato powers. The rules of conventional warfare will be suspended if we cross a point of no-return, now fast approaching.
The compounded military aid package approved this week by the Biden administration, Germany, Britain, Canada, Italy, France, and other Nato powers, plus contributions from non-Nato states, will go beyond the transfer of main battle tanks, though even this alone will mark a qualitative shift in the war.
Dates in this context have importance, not just for the delivery of missiles, tanks, and ammunition to Ukraine, but also in terms of Russian and Ukrainian preparations for decisive offensives in the next two months.
March is set to be a focal month for the offensive strategies of Russia, Ukraine and Nato. A hot war could then replace the cold war because of the radical difference between a war on Ukraine, and a Nato war with Russia. The issue now goes beyond winning a round or a battle. It will be a war for survival between Russia and Nato, not just a war of victory or defeat between Russia and Ukraine.
Whose offensive will succeed then, come March? This is the heart of the race, amid the impossibility of launching any international initiatives for a political solution, and the de facto collapse of international mechanisms supposed to prevent such dangerous escalations. The UN and its agencies are, for all intents and purposes, ineffective and powerless to act. Even at the level of rhetoric, the UN has failed the tests of conscience and political influence.
Military experts familiar with Russian and western strategies in Ukraine anticipate the fighting will escalate relentlessly beginning in February. As the timeline for the delivery of western tanks and military aid to Ukraine approaches, there is an increased likelihood that the war between Russia and Ukraine becomes a direct war between Russia and Nato.
There are many possible triggers for such a terrifying scenario, including Poland. Poland is playing a crucial role as an indispensable gateway for the delivery of advanced weaponry from Nato to Ukraine. If Russia carries out a strike on Poland, it would effectively risk triggering a new world war. Under Article 5 of its charter, Nato is legally obligated to respond to any aggression against a Nato member state.
Estonia is another example of how the containment of Russia’s military capabilities is expanding. Estonia announced recently that it is considering the establishment of a contiguous zone regime in the Gulf of Finland, giving it the ability to close the waterway to Russia and isolate Saint Petersburg. Estonia is a Nato member and Finland is in the process of joining the alliance. With the help of other Nato states, the two countries would then have the ability to blockade the port in Saint Petersburg, the largest in Russia and the Baltic Sea. Russia expelled Estonia’s envoy this week, to protest the actions of the government of Estonia. Once part of the Soviet Union, Estonia has recently announced a 113 million euro military aid package to Ukraine, the largest in its history, and equivalent to 1 per cent of its GDP, according to an Estonian ambassador.
There has been a crucial element in the equation of reducing conflict and building trust between the US and Russia known as the strategic arms reduction treaty or the Start Treaty for nuclear and other strategic arms reduction. But in late last November, Moscow indefinitely postponed a meeting with Washington to discuss the resumption of inspections under the New Start Treaty signed in 2010. Last week, three months after the postponement of that meeting, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that the current state of US-Russian relations did not allow for further talks, accusing the US of “provoking Russia”. At some stage, he added, Russia’s reaction will lead to a kind of collapse. The Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, had previously said that arms control talks cannot be separated from "geopolitical realities”.
The Start treaty was created in order to contain conflict during the Cold War. The collapse of the treaty today risks provoking a nuclear war between Washington and Moscow in a hot war that may not stop at the brink, as happened during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. The expiry date for this agreement is February 2026, but there are nuclear concerns accompanying the Ukrainian war and Moscow's rejection of returning to these talks and of further inspections of its nuclear sites, to which the US is entitled to under the treaty.
US President Joe Biden has agreed to supply Ukraine with 31 Abrams battle tanks, to encourage Germany to donate Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv. Britain is training Ukrainian forces on using Challenger tanks, and Norway and others have made similar pledges, forming together what Ukraine has described as a grand "tank coalition".
The offensive weapons package includes in addition to tanks around 1100 missiles, drones, and other hardware. Non-Nato states are also chipping in. Italy, for example, has supplied both its own equipment and drones from Israel.
The West seems unconvinced about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats about nuclear weapons, given that this would lead to the destruction of Russia before the destruction of western powers
We are today seeing an Iranian-Israeli competition in drone warfare in Ukraine. Russia has come to rely in great measure on Iranian drones, which have overturned western-Iranian relations and adversely affected the Vienna talks that sought to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran.
The UN has made soft criticism of the entry of heavy tanks into the Ukraine war, while former US President Donald Trump expressed fierce opposition to the move, warning it could lead to nuclear war. But a question here is – why is the US not concerned about this possibility? More urgently, why are the European states not concerned by this either, given their proximity to what would be ground zero?
The West seems unconvinced about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats about nuclear weapons, given that this would lead to the destruction of Russia before the destruction of western powers. Russia’s strategic missiles would take 40 minutes to reach the US, according to one nuclear expert, while their US counterparts could hit Russia in 15 minutes. The West thus seems to be betting on Mr Putin’s fear of becoming the cause of Russia’s destruction. Further, the West also seems to be betting that the Russian military understands that the price Russia would pay in the event of nuclear war would be many times more what the West would incur, and thus would blink first.
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One of the problems here, however, is that the Russian military and Mr Putin are convinced Russia can win a nuclear war with Nato, in keeping with their belief Russia can win the war in Ukraine. In other words, the political and military compass of the Nato powers and Russia seems to be broken, along with their instruments of self-restraint. Progressive military escalation appears to be unchecked and unfettered, with no international mechanisms to rein things in.
At a regional level, international mechanisms to keep chaos in check seem to be also suspended, either out of impotence or following narrow political calculations overshadowed by intimidation. Lebanon is a prime example. Neither has the UN sought to send a fact-finding mission into the Beirut Port explosion nor have the states with advanced satellite capabilities shared imagery of what happened on that fateful day in August 2020, each for different reasons.
There is also the crime of standing idly by the systematic assault led by Lebanon’s political class, foremost of which the "Shiite Duo" of Hezbollah and Amal, to stop the work of Tarek Bitar, the investigative judge in charge of the case. Ghassan Oweidat, a top prosecutor close to Hezbollah, even retaliated against Judge Bitar’s resumption of the investigation by spitefully releasing all those detained as part of the investigation and issuing counter charges against the investigative judge himself, slapping a travel ban on him and referring him to a judicial disciplinary body.
The supposed top law enforcing official in the land released all suspects in the case, betting on US support because one of the detainees is an American citizen, Mohammad Ziad Al Awf, whose lawyer said the US embassy in Beirut helped with travel arrangements for his client, taking him directly from prison to the airport. It appears the law of the jungle thus took over, amid a local-international farce, and international indifference to the suffering of the families of the victims of the blast.
Moral duty should have required a fact-finding mission at the time. It now requires holding accountable those who let the suspects escape. It is no achievement to smuggle out a citizen, even if he were innocent. The achievement needed is to conclude the investigation and ensure justice. It cannot be to empower the mutiny against it and enable those accused of involvement in the blast to cover up what happened. Such deals that encourage impunity are a disgrace, a stain on the record of everyone involved, be it local or international players, regardless of the justifications.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Innotech Profile
Date started: 2013
Founder/CEO: Othman Al Mandhari
Based: Muscat, Oman
Sector: Additive manufacturing, 3D printing technologies
Size: 15 full-time employees
Stage: Seed stage and seeking Series A round of financing
Investors: Oman Technology Fund from 2017 to 2019, exited through an agreement with a new investor to secure new funding that it under negotiation right now.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPeyton%20Reed%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Paul%20Rudd%2C%20Evangeline%20Lilly%2C%20Jonathan%20Majors%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
What are the main cyber security threats?
Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities.
Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids.
Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
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Results
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Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
- Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
- Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
- Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
Du Football Champions
The fourth season of du Football Champions was launched at Gitex on Wednesday alongside the Middle East’s first sports-tech scouting platform.“du Talents”, which enables aspiring footballers to upload their profiles and highlights reels and communicate directly with coaches, is designed to extend the reach of the programme, which has already attracted more than 21,500 players in its first three years.
Tentative schedule of 2017/18 Ashes series
1st Test November 23-27, The Gabba, Brisbane
2nd Test December 2-6, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
3rd Test Dcember 14-18, Waca, Perth
4th Test December 26-30, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
5th Test January 4-8, Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
MATCH INFO
England 241-3 (20 ovs)
Malan 130 no, Morgan 91
New Zealand 165 all out (16.5ovs)
Southee 39, Parkinson 4-47
England win by 76 runs
Series level at 2-2
Directed by Sam Mendes
Starring Dean-Charles Chapman, George MacKay, Daniel Mays
4.5/5
If you go
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Seattle from Dh5,555 return, including taxes. Portland is a 260 km drive from Seattle and Emirates offers codeshare flights to Portland with its partner Alaska Airlines.
The car
Hertz (www.hertz.ae) offers compact car rental from about $300 per week, including taxes. Emirates Skywards members can earn points on their car hire through Hertz.
Parks and accommodation
For information on Crater Lake National Park, visit www.nps.gov/crla/index.htm . Because of the altitude, large parts of the park are closed in winter due to snow. While the park’s summer season is May 22-October 31, typically, the full loop of the Rim Drive is only possible from late July until the end of October. Entry costs $25 per car for a day. For accommodation, see www.travelcraterlake.com. For information on Umpqua Hot Springs, see www.fs.usda.gov and https://soakoregon.com/umpqua-hot-springs/. For Bend, see https://www.visitbend.com/.
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Haltia.ai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Arto%20Bendiken%20and%20Talal%20Thabet%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AI%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20About%20%241.7%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self%2C%20family%20and%20friends%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to get there
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
Indian origin executives leading top technology firms
Sundar Pichai
Chief executive, Google and Alphabet
Satya Nadella
Chief executive, Microsoft
Ajaypal Singh Banga
President and chief executive, Mastercard
Shantanu Narayen
Chief executive, chairman, and president, Adobe
Indra Nooyi
Board of directors, Amazon and former chief executive, PepsiCo
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Brief scores:
Huesca 0
Real Madrid 1
Bale 8'
MORE ON CORONAVIRUS & THE ECONOMY
MATCH INFO
What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)
UAE SQUAD FOR ASIAN JIU-JITSU CHAMPIONSHIP
Men’s squad: Faisal Al Ketbi, Omar Al Fadhli, Zayed Al Kathiri, Thiab Al Nuaimi, Khaled Al Shehhi, Mohamed Ali Al Suwaidi, Farraj Khaled Al Awlaqi, Muhammad Al Ameri, Mahdi Al Awlaqi, Saeed Al Qubaisi, Abdullah Al Qubaisi and Hazaa Farhan
Women's squad: Hamda Al Shekheili, Shouq Al Dhanhani, Balqis Abdullah, Sharifa Al Namani, Asma Al Hosani, Maitha Sultan, Bashayer Al Matrooshi, Maha Al Hanaei, Shamma Al Kalbani, Haya Al Jahuri, Mahra Mahfouz, Marwa Al Hosani, Tasneem Al Jahoori and Maryam Al Amri
About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
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The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Tottenham 0-1 Ajax, Tuesday
Second leg
Ajax v Tottenham, Wednesday, May 8, 11pm
Game is on BeIN Sports
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
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