If there is one word that best captures the dominant theme at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, it is “polycrisis”. A new buzzword popularised by the British historian Adam Tooze, who gained world renown for his magisterial account of the 2007-2008 Great Recession, polycrisis refers to the unprecedented convergence of several crises with global consequences, thus undermining the efficacy of conventional policy paradigms.
In the past, the world had to contend with a single major crisis with global ramifications: think of, for instance, the First World War originating from Europe or the Great Recession from the Wall Street and subprime crisis in the US. In contrast, today we deal with crises ranging from the economic slowdown in China to Federal Reserve interest rate rises in the US and the impending recession in Europe amid the war in Ukraine. The upshot is the increasing difficulty of accurately forecasting the trajectory of the world economy, and broader global order, in the coming months and years.
When it comes to Asia, however, there are three big trendlines that will define the geopolitical landscape this year and beyond: the trajectory of Sino-American competition; Japan’s military build-up and growing co-operation with likeminded middle powers; and the role of non-aligned emerging powers such as India (this year’s G20 president) and Indonesia (this year’s Asean chairman).
By all indications, the US and China are not the same superpowers they used to be. Following decades of military interventions abroad, and growing political polarisation and economic imbalances at home, Washington no longer wields the same kind of full-spectrum hegemony on the global stage.
America’s share of the global economy has steadily shrunk over the past half century, while its military edge over rivals is gradually receding. On its part, China is now confronting a shrinking population as well as a slowing economy. The heady days of double-digit growth are now history, with the Asian juggernaut grappling with structural challenges such as rising wages, declining productivity, huge public debt, and a politically active middle class.
Before the end of this year, we may know if the US and China are in position to pursue 'coopetition' or are bound to be locked into a 'new Cold War'
If anything, China now risks falling into what economists describe as a middle-income trap, namely the struggle to sustain historically robust growth rates amid a difficult transition to a knowledge-based economy. As a result, leading emerging market experts such as Ruchir Sharma doubt whether China’s gross domestic product will catch up with that of the US before the end of this century.
Nevertheless, the US and China remain, by far, the world’s two most powerful nations in the Indo-Pacific region. According to the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, which evaluates military, economic and diplomatic capabilities of all major regional nations, the overall power-influence scores of the US (82.2) and China (74.6) place them well ahead of their closest rivals such as Japan (38.7), India (37.7), Russia (33), and Australia (30.8).
After years of constant sabre-rattling, including as escalating trade war and growing military tensions in the Western Pacific, the two superpowers explored a detente in the G20 summit last November. But given the depth of geopolitical differences between them, it’s imperative that they double-down on institutionalised dialogue and constructive engagement in the coming months.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to visit Beijing later this year in order to examine the parameters of co-operation and, if possible, a major reset in relations. A state visit either by US President Joe Biden or Chinese President Xi Jinping could follow through. This month, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao underscored his country’s commitment to “continuously improve" relations with Washington, provided “the US side will take a correct view of the opportunities that China's development brings to the US and the world, and follow the direction set by the two heads of state to push China-US economic and trade relations back on track at an early date".
After a months-long hiatus, especially following former US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan, the two powers have also resumed dialogue on climate change negotiations. It’s crucial for the two superpowers to fully restore, and accordingly expand, institutionalised channels of communications on other vital areas of concerns, including nuclear proliferation, terrorism and free trade.
Avoiding military confrontation over hotpsots such as the South China Sea and Taiwan will be a top priority. Before the end of this year, we will probably know whether the US and China are in position to pursue “coopetition” (co-operative competition) or are bound to be locked into a “new Cold War” for the foreseeable future.
The second major development to watch out for this year is the direction of Japan’s foreign and defence policy. Boasting the world’s third-largest economy, and equipped with one of the most modern armed forces in Asia, Japan will be vital to shaping the future of the Indo-Pacific region. Over the past month, Tokyo released a new National Security Strategy, which signals a more proactive defence policy with growing focus on “counter-strike” capabilities, including the development of sophisticated missile defence systems.
More from Richard Javad Heydarian
Over the next five years, Japan is set to double its defence spending as a share of GDP, deploying a $315 billion budget to transform its Self Defence Forces for 21st-century warfare. Signalling growing independence from the US, it is also pursuing a next-generation fighter jet project, under the Global Combat Air Programme, with Italy and the UK. The country is also finalising defence agreements with Australia, Germany, the UK, Canada and other likeminded powers in order to enhance military interoperability and, accordingly, its capacity to project power across the Indo-Pacific.
Given its militaristic past, Japan’s military build-up is likely to trigger backlash in neighbouring countries such as China and South Korea. But much of the West and the Indo-Pacific region have either publicly or privately welcomed a more proactive foreign policy. If anything, the Japanese public is also increasingly supportive of revising the country’s post-Second World War pacifist constitution amid growing uncertainty in the regional geopolitical landscape.
The third major element that will shape Indo-Pacific geopolitics in the coming months is the role of non-aligned powers such as India and Indonesia.
Though they are democratic nations with relatively warm ties with the West in recent years, both India and Indonesia have remained adamantly neutral amid the conflict between the West on the one hand and Russia and China on the other. Accordingly, both Asian countries have refused to back western sanctions either against Moscow or Beijing.
Eager to maintain an equidistant relationship with all major powers, and insulate their own populations against global uncertainty, India and Indonesia are more concerned about disruptions to the global economy and commodity markets due to unilateral western sanctions against rival powers in the East. To this end, both countries are expected to leverage their growing international influence to rally the so-called Global South, nudge the West towards dialogue with Russia and China, and establish a more inclusive, multipolar security architecture in the Indo-Pacific.
In short, the coming months will be shaped as much by rival superpowers as non-aligned emerging powers in Asia, especially as everyone seeks to mitigate the deleterious impact of a world in polycrisis.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
EU's%2020-point%20migration%20plan
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Hotel Data Cloud profile
Date started: June 2016
Founders: Gregor Amon and Kevin Czok
Based: Dubai
Sector: Travel Tech
Size: 10 employees
Funding: $350,000 (Dh1.3 million)
Investors: five angel investors (undisclosed except for Amar Shubar)
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
if you go
The flights
Flydubai offers three daily direct flights to Sarajevo and, from June, a daily flight from Thessaloniki from Dubai. A return flight costs from Dhs1,905 including taxes.
The trip
The Travel Scientists are the organisers of the Balkan Ride and several other rallies around the world. The 2018 running of this particular adventure will take place from August 3-11, once again starting in Sarajevo and ending a week later in Thessaloniki. If you’re driving your own vehicle, then entry start from €880 (Dhs 3,900) per person including all accommodation along the route. Contact the Travel Scientists if you wish to hire one of their vehicles.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
House-hunting
Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove
- Edinburgh, Scotland
- Westminster, London
- Camden, London
- Glasgow, Scotland
- Islington, London
- Kensington and Chelsea, London
- Highlands, Scotland
- Argyll and Bute, Scotland
- Fife, Scotland
- Tower Hamlets, London
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sav%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Purvi%20Munot%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24750%2C000%20as%20of%20March%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Angel%20investors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday Stuttgart v Cologne (Kick-off 10.30pm UAE)
Saturday RB Leipzig v Hertha Berlin (5.30pm)
Mainz v Borussia Monchengladbach (5.30pm)
Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm)
Union Berlin v SC Freiburg (5.30pm)
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (5.30pm)
Sunday Wolfsburg v Arminia (6.30pm)
Werder Bremen v Hoffenheim (9pm)
Bayer Leverkusen v Augsburg (11.30pm)
THREE
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Nayla%20Al%20Khaja%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Jefferson%20Hall%2C%20Faten%20Ahmed%2C%20Noura%20Alabed%2C%20Saud%20Alzarooni%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Director: Jon Watts
Stars: Tom Holland, Zendaya, Jacob Batalon
Rating:*****
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How to donate
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Oppenheimer
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EChristopher%20Nolan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECillian%20Murphy%2C%20Emily%20Blunt%2C%20Robert%20Downey%20Jr%2C%20Florence%20Pugh%2C%20Matt%20Damon%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E5%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
When Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi
Known as The Lady of Arabic Song, Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi on November 28, 1971, as part of celebrations for the fifth anniversary of the accession of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan as Ruler of Abu Dhabi. A concert hall was constructed for the event on land that is now Al Nahyan Stadium, behind Al Wahda Mall. The audience were treated to many of Kulthum's most well-known songs as part of the sold-out show, including Aghadan Alqak and Enta Omri.
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3EName%3A%20Cashew%0D%3Cbr%3EStarted%3A%202020%0D%3Cbr%3EFounders%3A%20Ibtissam%20Ouassif%20and%20Ammar%20Afif%0D%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3EIndustry%3A%20FinTech%0D%3Cbr%3EFunding%20size%3A%20%2410m%0D%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Mashreq%2C%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key products and UAE prices
iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available.
Price: Dh4,229
iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus.
Price: Dh4,649
iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel.
Price: Dh3,179
Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Three ways to boost your credit score
Marwan Lutfi says the core fundamentals that drive better payment behaviour and can improve your credit score are:
1. Make sure you make your payments on time;
2. Limit the number of products you borrow on: the more loans and credit cards you have, the more it will affect your credit score;
3. Don't max out all your debts: how much you maximise those credit facilities will have an impact. If you have five credit cards and utilise 90 per cent of that credit, it will negatively affect your score.
DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Emma Corrin
Director: Shawn Levy
Rating: 3/5
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
Who has been sanctioned?
Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.
Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.
Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.
Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
OIL PLEDGE
At the start of Russia's invasion, IEA member countries held 1.5 billion barrels in public reserves and about 575 million barrels under obligations with industry, according to the agency's website. The two collective actions of the IEA this year of 62.7 million barrels, which was agreed on March 1, and this week's 120 million barrels amount to 9 per cent of total emergency reserves, it added.
Scoreline
Australia 2-1 Thailand
Australia: Juric 69', Leckie 86'
Thailand: Pokklaw 82'
