A T-14 Armata tank rolls towards Red Square to attend a rehearsal for the Victory Day military parade in Moscow last May. British intelligence says Russia might deploy these tanks in Ukraine. AP Photo
A T-14 Armata tank rolls towards Red Square to attend a rehearsal for the Victory Day military parade in Moscow last May. British intelligence says Russia might deploy these tanks in Ukraine. AP Photo
A T-14 Armata tank rolls towards Red Square to attend a rehearsal for the Victory Day military parade in Moscow last May. British intelligence says Russia might deploy these tanks in Ukraine. AP Photo
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
January 22, 2023
The Nato-Russia confrontation is increasing in intensity, and fast approaching a turning point that could make it even more dangerous. The escalation is following a military trajectory, underscored by meetings convened this week by top generals from Nato and Ukraine, amid terrifying remarks being made by Russian leaders about possible "nuclear options".
Today, close to the one-year anniversary of the start of Moscow's full-scale invasion, there are few signs of hope for a political solution. Rather, what's been a proxy war so far could transform into direct conflict. In seeking to back the other into a corner, both sides may have backed themselves into a corner, making it impossible for either of them to back down.
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, put it bluntly, when he said: “The defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war may trigger a nuclear war." Commenting on Nato support for the Ukrainian armed forces, he added: “Nuclear powers have never lost major conflicts on which their fate depends." The Kremlin confirmed that Mr Medvedev’s remarks were consistent with Moscow’s nuclear doctrine.
Western leaders have previously discounted such remarks from the former Russian president. They might even ignore the remarks made by Ramzan Kadyrov, head of the Chechen Republic, who said: “Russia will never allow itself to lose in any confrontation, and it can press the button, and peace be upon you.” Mr Kadyrov, whose forces are fighting alongside the Russian army, was obviously referring to nuclear weapons.
Indeed, western leaders seem confident – in varying degrees – that Moscow wouldn't dare use nuclear weapons in the war, believing this would lead to the defeat of its army and even bring down its regime. They are confident it will eventually back down. But Russian President Vladimir Putin isn't known to back down, in which case might they be mistaken?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses Nato defence chiefs in Ramstein-Miesenbach, Germany, on Friday. Getty Images
Nato’s strategic push for more logistical support for Ukraine will pose a significant challenge for Russia
Why is the current round of escalations more dangerous than previous ones? First, there is a concerted effort in the West to seek unprecedented aid for Ukraine, including tanks, missiles and other military hardware that could enable Kyiv to launch attacks on Russian territory. Moscow views these weapons, especially long-range weapons, as provocative.
Further, Washington has now added Crimea into the military equation, knowing that this would rile up the Kremlin. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed his country's aim to restore Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014. Addressing western audiences, Mr Zelenskyy said: “Our objective is to liberate all of our territories … Give us your weapons and we will bring our land back." Washington agrees and believes Crimea would change the dynamics of the war and has urged new weapons shipments to Ukraine to this end.
The UK, through its defence secretary and military intelligence, has not only pledged to send armoured vehicles and thousands of missiles and ammunition to Ukraine, but also revealed efforts by Nato states to train Ukrainian soldiers. London has revealed that Moscow is deploying its new T-14 Armata battle tanks but, perhaps as part of psychological warfare, said that this decision was associated with risks for Russia in terms of production delays and the size and weight of these tanks.
Nato’s strategic push for more logistical support for Ukraine will pose a significant challenge for Russia. By mid-March, Ukrainian soldiers who have completed their training in the West, will return with new equipment and strategies that impose a new situation for the Russian army. This month, Ukrainian Parliament passed legislation allowing foreign citizens to fight alongside the army.
Last week's summit involving Nato chiefs of defence has brought a combination of alarm and renewed belligerence in the Russian political and military ranks. And as the war enters a new phase, there is talk within Russian circles about possible preventive measures.
"Preventive strikes" – meaning the nuclear option – are now being seriously considered. The conversation is no longer limited to tactical nuclear strikes exclusively in Ukraine. Rather, both the geography and scale of the nuclear options have expanded. I am given to understand that recent Russian remarks about the Poseidon Super Torpedoes are not a coincidence.
Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, seen at a meeting on Friday, has not ruled out nuclear deterrence. AP Photo
Some experts say these nuclear-capable torpedoes can generate tsunamis once they hit Nato countries such as the US and UK. Mr Putin first revealed them in 2018, claiming they were a new type of strategic nuclear weapons that no defence system in the world could intercept. They have also been described as doomsday weapons. Last week, Moscow announced production of the first batch, to be deployed onboard the Belgorod submarine. But is all this a bluff, or is it really a step towards executing a nuclear preventive strategy?
Nato members don't appear to be intimidated by the prospect of direct conflict with Russia, betting perhaps on a fear of consequences in Moscow. All this escalation could also be just a new peak in the war, to be followed by ceasefire negotiations and political settlements. But for now, it appears unlikely as the space for negotiations narrow and the space for warfare expands.
Of course, the West doesn't underestimate Russia's capabilities. It is also factoring in the regional actions of Moscow and its allies. For this reason, US diplomatic movements in the Middle East this week included efforts to hedge against Iranian adventures and Israeli initiatives, seeking to ensure that the situation remains calm in countries such as Iraq.
According to a White House statement, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan discussed with the leaders of Israel “Ukraine, as well as the burgeoning defence partnership between Russia and Iran and its implications for security in the Middle East region". Mr Sullivan stressed that the US would never allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.
For his part, Brett McGurk, the US co-ordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, led a large delegation to Iraq, holding the first meeting of its kind with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani, who despite being backed by Iran, recently stated that his country needed continued US troops presence in Iraq. Bear in mind that the Co-ordination Framework, the governing coalition backing Mr Al Sudani, has a different position that echoes Tehran’s call for US troops to leave, underscoring the importance of his diverging position. The US delegation did not hesitate to call for stopping Iraqi funds from being diverted to Iran.
All surprises are possible in the Ukrainian Pandora’s box. This war portends further non-traditional, "pre-emptive" and "preventive" strategies, which until recently were considered unlikely.
The lowdown
Rating: 4/5
MATCH INFO
Jersey 147 (20 overs)
UAE 112 (19.2 overs)
Jersey win by 35 runs
Company profile
Date started: December 24, 2018
Founders: Omer Gurel, chief executive and co-founder and Edebali Sener, co-founder and chief technology officer
Based: Dubai Media City
Number of employees: 42 (34 in Dubai and a tech team of eight in Ankara, Turkey)
Sector: ConsumerTech and FinTech
Cashflow: Almost $1 million a year
Funding: Series A funding of $2.5m with Series B plans for May 2020
Badr Organisation: Seen as the most militarily capable faction in the Hashd. Iraqi Shiite exiles opposed to Saddam Hussein set up the group in Tehran in the early 1980s as the Badr Corps under the supervision of the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The militia exalts Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but intermittently cooperated with the US military.
Saraya Al Salam (Peace Brigade): Comprised of former members of the officially defunct Mahdi Army, a militia that was commanded by Iraqi cleric Moqtada Al Sadr and fought US and Iraqi government and other forces between 2004 and 2008. As part of a political overhaul aimed as casting Mr Al Sadr as a more nationalist and less sectarian figure, the cleric formed Saraya Al Salam in 2014. The group’s relations with Iran has been volatile.
Kataeb Hezbollah: The group, which is fighting on behalf of the Bashar Al Assad government in Syria, traces its origins to attacks on US forces in Iraq in 2004 and adopts a tough stance against Washington, calling the United States “the enemy of humanity”.
Asaeb Ahl Al Haq: An offshoot of the Mahdi Army active in Syria. Asaeb Ahl Al Haq’s leader Qais al Khazali was a student of Mr Al Moqtada’s late father Mohammed Sadeq Al Sadr, a prominent Shiite cleric who was killed during Saddam Hussein’s rule.
Harakat Hezbollah Al Nujaba: Formed in 2013 to fight alongside Mr Al Assad’s loyalists in Syria before joining the Hashd. The group is seen as among the most ideological and sectarian-driven Hashd militias in Syria and is the major recruiter of foreign fighters to Syria.
Saraya Al Khorasani: The ICRG formed Saraya Al Khorasani in the mid-1990s and the group is seen as the most ideologically attached to Iran among Tehran’s satellites in Iraq.
(Source: The Wilson Centre, the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation)
Muslim Council of Elders condemns terrorism on religious sites
The Muslim Council of Elders has strongly condemned the criminal attacks on religious sites in Britain.
It firmly rejected “acts of terrorism, which constitute a flagrant violation of the sanctity of houses of worship”.
“Attacking places of worship is a form of terrorism and extremism that threatens peace and stability within societies,” it said.
The council also warned against the rise of hate speech, racism, extremism and Islamophobia. It urged the international community to join efforts to promote tolerance and peaceful coexistence.
Key findings of Jenkins report
Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
How has net migration to UK changed?
The figure was broadly flat immediately before the Covid-19 pandemic, standing at 216,000 in the year to June 2018 and 224,000 in the year to June 2019.
It then dropped to an estimated 111,000 in the year to June 2020 when restrictions introduced during the pandemic limited travel and movement.
The total rose to 254,000 in the year to June 2021, followed by steep jumps to 634,000 in the year to June 2022 and 906,000 in the year to June 2023.
The latest available figure of 728,000 for the 12 months to June 2024 suggests levels are starting to decrease.
Engine: 3.0L twin-turbo V6 Gearbox: 10-speed automatic Power: 405hp at 5,500rpm Torque: 562Nm at 3,000rpm Fuel economy, combined: 11.2L/100km Price: From Dh292,845 (Reserve); from Dh320,145 (Presidential) On sale: Now
Tamkeen's offering
Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
Option 2: 50% across three years
Option 3: 30% across five years
Titanium Escrow profile
Started: December 2016
Founder: Ibrahim Kamalmaz
Based: UAE
Sector: Finance / legal
Size: 3 employees, pre-revenue
Stage: Early stage
Investors: Founder's friends and Family
Daily cash awards of $1,000 dollars will sweeten the Madrasa e-learning project by tempting more pupils to an education portal to deepen their understanding of math and sciences.
School children are required to watch an educational video each day and answer a question related to it. They then enter into a raffle draw for the $1,000 prize.
“We are targeting everyone who wants to learn. This will be $1,000 for 1,000 days so there will be a winner every day for 1,000 days,” said Sara Al Nuaimi, project manager of the Madrasa e-learning platform that was launched on Tuesday by the Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, to reach Arab pupils from kindergarten to grade 12 with educational videos.
“The objective of the Madrasa is to become the number one reference for all Arab students in the world. The 5,000 videos we have online is just the beginning, we have big ambitions. Today in the Arab world there are 50 million students. We want to reach everyone who is willing to learn.”
Starring: Willem Dafoe, Oscar Isaacs, Mads Mikkelsen
Three stars
Who are the Soroptimists?
The first Soroptimists club was founded in Oakland, California in 1921. The name comes from the Latin word soror which means sister, combined with optima, meaning the best.
The organisation said its name is best interpreted as ‘the best for women’.
Since then the group has grown exponentially around the world and is officially affiliated with the United Nations. The organisation also counts Queen Mathilde of Belgium among its ranks.
Family: He is the youngest of five brothers, of whom two are dentists.
Celebrities he worked on: Fabio Canavaro, Lojain Omran, RedOne, Saber Al Rabai.
Where he works: Liberty Dental Clinic
Key products and UAE prices
iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available. Price: Dh4,229
iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus. Price: Dh4,649
iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel. Price: Dh3,179
Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.
the pledge
I pledge to uphold the duty of tolerance
I pledge to take a first stand against hate and injustice
I pledge to respect and accept people whose abilities, beliefs and culture are different from my own
I pledge to wish for others what I wish for myself
I pledge to live in harmony with my community
I pledge to always be open to dialogue and forgiveness
I pledge to do my part to create peace for all
I pledge to exercise benevolence and choose kindness in all my dealings with my community
I pledge to always stand up for these values: Zayed's values for tolerance and human fraternity
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Director: Jon Watts
Stars: Tom Holland, Zendaya, Jacob Batalon
Rating:*****
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo Friday, Sept 26 – UAE won by 36 runs Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
