It has been three years since Iranian authorities downed Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 in Tehran, killing all 176 passengers and crew. It took several days for officials to admit that the plane had been hit by a missile operator, who had believed it to be a hostile target.
The “accident”, as the officials described it, took place less than a week after Qassem Suleimani, head of the Quds Force – an elite branch within Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – had been assassinated by a US drone in neighbouring Iraq. The downing of the civilian plane had occurred amid heightened fears among regime officials of a military escalation against its mortal enemy, America.
Three years after Suleimani’s killing and the subsequent air tragedy, relatives of the victims who hailed from Iran, Afghanistan, Canada, Ukraine and Sweden, have yet to receive any justice. But the Iranian regime today appears to be feeling under siege much like it had three years ago – except that this time, the perceived threat to its existence is emanating from inside the country, rather than outside.
Although the nationwide protests that began last September were described as “surprising” by some, they came as little surprise to those paying attention. While they were sparked over opposition to compulsory veiling, they have much deeper causes. Perceptive observers of Iran have long known that the writing is on the wall for the theocratic regime.
Even if the protests hadn’t taken place at all, the regime’s fundamental failure is evident to any fair observer.
As it approaches its 44th anniversary next week, it has manifestly failed to realise its own founding promises for development and justice. Iran of 2023 is economically ruined (with the rial having dived to a record low of 44,000 against the dollar last month), diplomatically isolated and socially oppressive. More importantly, the regime is no longer seen as a genuine expression of Iranian statehood but feels, to many, like an alien group ruling over the country. This is most evident in the simple yet damning word many ordinary Iranians now use to describe their rulers: Inaa or “them”. Karim Sadjadpour recently argued in a New York Times essay: “While the Islamic Republic sought to subdue Iranian culture, it is Iranian culture and patriotism that are threatening to undo the Islamic Republic.”
But if the status quo can’t stand, what will the next chapter of the Iranian story be? Those on the streets claim that they are fighting for a revolution. Will they succeed?
Revolutions are notoriously hard to predict and in Iran of 2023, there are many variables at work, from the succession struggle expected to follow in the event of the passing of the 83-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to American and Israeli interactions with the regime over its nuclear and military programme.
In the broadest sense, three visions can be imagined for the future of Iran, each one of which has its own proponents. Let me start with the one with the least chance of materialising.
This is what I call the “North Korea scenario”. Mr Khamenei will embolden the regime by developing a nuclear bomb, further excluding anybody who doesn’t share his vision of a militantly anti-western and Islamist society, replacing the old hands with what he has called a new generation of “revolutionary devout youth”, and subduing society by engaging in 1980s-style mass executions. The chances of such repeat atrocities are very real and the international human rights community must be ready for such a scenario. But it’s unlikely that Mr Khamenei, or any likely successor, would bring about such a vision. Iran is much more integrated with the rest of the world than North Korea is, and the resistance to such a vision will come not just from the populace but from traditional state elites.
Even if the protests hadn’t taken place at all, the regime’s fundamental failure is evident to any fair observer
This brings us to the other two visions for a life beyond the Islamic Republic: one, democratic; the other, military-autocratic with a socially liberal veneer.
In the first vision, which I call a “South Korea scenario”, Iranians replace the regime with a liberal democracy in which elections determine the composition of parliament and various social factions and elites will fight their battles via the ballot box. Most Iranians who support this vision would like to compare themselves to South Korea, which is perhaps the best example of a non-western country that has concurrently democratised and prospered. Other examples include Indonesia and the Philippines, both of which succeeded in overthrowing their decades-old dictators and replacing them with a fragile but functioning electoral democracy. This vision is supported not only by those Iranians who have deep and genuine democratic commitments, but also by those who see this as simply the best path to stability and prosperity.
In the second scenario, a charismatic military figure – or a group of officers – takes charge and goes on to implement technocratic governance and accede to the several social demands made by Iranians without giving them political freedoms. In this Iran, people could dress how they like, eat and drink what they like, and enjoy the cultural products that they want, as long as they don’t cross certain political red lines. Women won’t suffer from extreme forms of discrimination as they do now. They will be allowed to hold the jobs they want and travel without a male guardian’s permission. More importantly, this Iran would drop its hostility towards the US and Israel and would abandon military and nuclear progammes that have led to sanctions and economic ruin. Many Iranian democrats would hate to admit it, but such an Iran would satisfy a significant part of the demands made by the current movement and will buy time with the populace for at least a few years.
The immediate future of Iran might very well be a battle between these two visions. Both have many followers and distinct advantages and drawbacks. Many proponents of the second vision are already ensconced in the echelons of power, chiefly the IRGC, which is already the most powerful economic and military power in Iran, although one that is far from cohesive. A prime example of such a figure could be Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the current speaker of the parliament, a former IRGC commander and perennially failed presidential candidate whose time as mayor of Tehran is remembered for its technocratic efficiency. According to a former Qalibaf aide I spoke to, most of those close to him believe he is a technocrat with no regard for Mr Khamenei or the Islamist ideology. It has been previously reported that he privately admires Israel due to co-operation between its military and civilian industries. When I covered the Iranian elite as a journalist, I repeatedly heard similar commentary from regime insiders, especially during the presidency of the similarly technocratic Hassan Rouhani.
The main advantage of the democratic vision is that it has deep roots in Iranian struggles for justice and freedom, dating back to the Constitutional Revolution of 1905-06. It is obviously most fitting with the slogan “Women, Life, Freedom” with its own roots in progressive Kurdish struggles. Iranian prisons are filled with proponents of the democratic vision, such as Narges Mohammadi and Nasrin Sotoudeh. This has also brought about this vision’s main drawback: lack of organisation.
However, while democratic advocates are barred by the regime from organising inside the country, those outside have no such hindrance. In response to popular calls for formation of an anti-regime “coalition” (Etelaaf), on January 1, 2023, several opposition figures, including former crown prince Reza Pahlavi, and activists Masih Alinejad, Nazanin Boniadi and Hamed Esmaeilion, took a small step: they published a joint new year message to Iranians that promised 2023 to be a year of “solidarity and organisation” that could bring about “freedom and justice in Iran”. Mr Pahlavi has previously spoken of Iran-based figures such as Sotoudeh as the country’s real hope for change.
The uphill task facing proponents of the democratic vision is to link up inside and outside Iran, organise their ranks and offer a viable alternative. The future of Iran may depend on whether or not they can manage it.
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Five famous companies founded by teens
There are numerous success stories of teen businesses that were created in college dorm rooms and other modest circumstances. Below are some of the most recognisable names in the industry:
- Facebook: Mark Zuckerberg and his friends started Facebook when he was a 19-year-old Harvard undergraduate.
- Dell: When Michael Dell was an undergraduate student at Texas University in 1984, he started upgrading computers for profit. He starting working full-time on his business when he was 19. Eventually, his company became the Dell Computer Corporation and then Dell Inc.
- Subway: Fred DeLuca opened the first Subway restaurant when he was 17. In 1965, Mr DeLuca needed extra money for college, so he decided to open his own business. Peter Buck, a family friend, lent him $1,000 and together, they opened Pete’s Super Submarines. A few years later, the company was rebranded and called Subway.
- Mashable: In 2005, Pete Cashmore created Mashable in Scotland when he was a teenager. The site was then a technology blog. Over the next few decades, Mr Cashmore has turned Mashable into a global media company.
- Oculus VR: Palmer Luckey founded Oculus VR in June 2012, when he was 19. In August that year, Oculus launched its Kickstarter campaign and raised more than $1 million in three days. Facebook bought Oculus for $2 billion two years later.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
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MATCH INFO
Manchester United 1 (Greenwood 77')
Everton 1 (Lindelof 36' og)
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
THURSDAY'S ORDER OF PLAY
Centre Court
Starting at 10am:
Lucrezia Stefanini v Elena Rybakina (6)
Aryna Sabalenka (4) v Polona Hercog
Sofia Kenin (1) v Zhaoxuan Yan
Kristina Mladenovic v Garbine Muguruza (5)
Sorana Cirstea v Karolina Pliskova (3)
Jessica Pegula v Elina Svitolina (2)
Court 1
Starting at 10am:
Sara Sorribes Tormo v Nadia Podoroska
Marketa Vondrousova v Su-Wei Hsieh
Elise Mertens (7) v Alize Cornet
Tamara Zidansek v Jennifer Brady (11)
Heather Watson v Jodie Burrage
Vera Zvonareva v Amandine Hesse
Court 2
Starting at 10am:
Arantxa Rus v Xiyu Wang
Maria Kostyuk v Lucie Hradecka
Karolina Muchova v Danka Kovinic
Cori Gauff v Ulrikke Eikeri
Mona Barthel v Anastasia Gasanova
Court 3
Starting at 10am:
Kateryna Bondarenko v Yafan Wang
Aliaksandra Sasnovich v Anna Bondar
Bianca Turati v Yaroslava Shvedova
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ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The biog
Favourite book: Men are from Mars Women are from Venus
Favourite travel destination: Ooty, a hill station in South India
Hobbies: Cooking. Biryani, pepper crab are her signature dishes
Favourite place in UAE: Marjan Island
Series info
Test series schedule 1st Test, Abu Dhabi: Sri Lanka won by 21 runs; 2nd Test, Dubai: Play starts at 2pm, Friday-Tuesday
ODI series schedule 1st ODI, Dubai: October 13; 2nd ODI, Abu Dhabi: October 16; 3rd ODI, Abu Dhabi: October 18; 4th ODI, Sharjah: October 20; 5th ODI, Sharjah: October 23
T20 series schedule 1st T20, Abu Dhabi: October 26; 2nd T20, Abu Dhabi: October 27; 3rd T20, Lahore: October 29
Tickets Available at www.q-tickets.com
Stat Fourteen Fourteen of the past 15 Test matches in the UAE have been decided on the final day. Both of the previous two Tests at Dubai International Stadium have been settled in the last session. Pakistan won with less than an hour to go against West Indies last year. Against England in 2015, there were just three balls left.
Key battle - Azhar Ali v Rangana Herath Herath may not quite be as flash as Muttiah Muralitharan, his former spin-twin who ended his career by taking his 800th wicket with his final delivery in Tests. He still has a decent sense of an ending, though. He won the Abu Dhabi match for his side with 11 wickets, the last of which was his 400th in Tests. It was not the first time he has owned Pakistan, either. A quarter of all his Test victims have been Pakistani. If Pakistan are going to avoid a first ever series defeat in the UAE, Azhar, their senior batsman, needs to stand up and show the way to blunt Herath.
Wonka
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champioons League semi-final:
First leg: Liverpool 5 Roma 2
Second leg: Wednesday, May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
TV: BeIN Sports, 10.45pm (UAE)
Global institutions: BlackRock and KKR
US-based BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager, with $5.98 trillion of assets under management as of the end of last year. The New York firm run by Larry Fink provides investment management services to institutional clients and retail investors including governments, sovereign wealth funds, corporations, banks and charitable foundations around the world, through a variety of investment vehicles.
KKR & Co, or Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, is a global private equity and investment firm with around $195 billion of assets as of the end of last year. The New York-based firm, founded by Henry Kravis and George Roberts, invests in multiple alternative asset classes through direct or fund-to-fund investments with a particular focus on infrastructure, technology, healthcare, real estate and energy.
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
KINGDOM%20OF%20THE%20PLANET%20OF%20THE%20APES
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Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Results
2.15pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m
Winner: Maqam, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer).
2.45pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m
Winner: Mamia Al Reef, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami.
3.15pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 2,000m
Winner: Jaahiz, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel.
3.45pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,000m
Winner: Qanoon, Szczepan Mazur, Irfan Ellahi.
4.15pm: Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid Cup Handicap (TB) Dh200,000 1,700m.
Winner: Philosopher, Tadhg O’Shea, Salem bin Ghadayer.
54.45pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m
Winner: Jap Al Yassoob, Fernando Jara, Irfan Ellahi.
SHALASH%20THE%20IRAQI
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The%20Roundup
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Results:
Women:
1. Rhiannan Iffland (AUS) 322.95 points
2. Lysanne Richard (CAN) 285.75
3. Ellie Smart (USA) 277.70
Men:
1. Gary Hunt (GBR) 431.55
2. Constantin Popovici (ROU) 424.65
3. Oleksiy Prygorov (UKR) 392.30
Places to go for free coffee
- Cherish Cafe Dubai, Dubai Investment Park, are giving away free coffees all day.
- La Terrace, Four Points by Sheraton Bur Dubai, are serving their first 50 guests one coffee and four bite-sized cakes
- Wild & The Moon will be giving away a free espresso with every purchase on International Coffee Day
- Orange Wheels welcome parents are to sit, relax and enjoy goodies at ‘Café O’ along with a free coffee
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Quick facts on cancer
- Cancer is the second-leading cause of death worldwide, after cardiovascular diseases
- About one in five men and one in six women will develop cancer in their lifetime
- By 2040, global cancer cases are on track to reach 30 million
- 70 per cent of cancer deaths occur in low and middle-income countries
- This rate is expected to increase to 75 per cent by 2030
- At least one third of common cancers are preventable
- Genetic mutations play a role in 5 per cent to 10 per cent of cancers
- Up to 3.7 million lives could be saved annually by implementing the right health
strategies
- The total annual economic cost of cancer is $1.16 trillion
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
Bharatanatyam
A ancient classical dance from the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. Intricate footwork and expressions are used to denote spiritual stories and ideas.
MATHC INFO
England 19 (Try: Tuilagi; Cons: Farrell; Pens: Ford (4)
New Zealand 7 (Try: Savea; Con: Mo'unga)
ULTRA PROCESSED FOODS
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- Margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars
- Energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- Infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes
- Many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts
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Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
more from Janine di Giovanni
LOS ANGELES GALAXY 2 MANCHESTER UNITED 5
Galaxy: Dos Santos (79', 88')
United: Rashford (2', 20'), Fellaini (26'), Mkhitaryan (67'), Martial (72')
