Turkey’s latest foreign policy moves have left me feeling a bit of deja vu. Much like six months ago, Ankara has again been renewing once-frigid regional ties, mulling another assault on Kurdish militants in northern Syria, and patting itself on the back for nailing down the Ukraine grain deal.
This time around, Ankara’s new friend is in Cairo, rather than Tel Aviv or Yerevan. And there appears to be more urgency to the proposed military operation against the YPG after the recent terrorist attack in the heart of Istanbul, not to mention the looming election.
Turkey and Egypt have, of course, been at odds since the 2013 removal of Mohammed Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood government, after which Ankara welcomed several of the group’s exiled leaders. Rapprochement talks began nearly two years ago and had waxed and waned until last week, when Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and his Turkish counterpart shook hands at a World Cup reception hosted by Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim.
It’s widely thought the Qatari leader organised the meeting, which was seen as a watershed, as two regional powers appeared to set aside their differences and embrace co-operation. With the Brotherhood largely defunct, the main issue had been Libya, where Ankara supported the Tripoli-based GNA in its fight against Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, backed by Egypt and other Arab states.
With Libya now mostly peaceful and headed, hopefully, towards elections, that concern, too, has been largely settled. Energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean has been their other point of contention. In 2020, in response to Turkey’s late 2019 maritime borders agreement with Libya’s GNA, Greece and Egypt agreed on their own maritime deal, and Cairo joined the East Med Gas Forum. Ankara was none too pleased about these moves.
Thus, it came as something of a surprise that the day after the Sisi-Erdogan handshake, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias arrived in Cairo to sign a maritime search-and-rescue agreement. Turkey quickly denounced the deal, blaming Greece’s desire to further its maximalist claims. Yet, Ankara refrained from criticising Egypt, perhaps because just a month prior Turkey and Libya had signed a follow-up deal of their own, on oil and gas exploration.
Setting aside Greece, which is a unique foreign policy file for Turkey, Ankara has mostly taken a softly-softly approach across the region of late. Since mid-2020, Turkey has improved relations with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel, Armenia and Egypt.
It’s not far-fetched to imagine Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Libya and Israel aligned on maritime borders
Why the turn to diplomacy? Partly for financial support during an economic crisis. And indeed, Turkey now looks set to receive $5 billion from Saudi Arabia and $10 billion from Qatar, with more likely to come. But it is also to increase regional amity and stability, which tends to boost co-operation and economic growth.
What’s remarkable is that Turkey pulled off its diplomatic breakthroughs without sacrificing its independent foreign policy. Cairo had reportedly set two conditions for renewed ties: a full Turkish withdrawal from Libya and the handing over of exiled Brotherhood leaders. Similarly, Israel is widely thought to have told Turkey it had to shut down the Istanbul offices of Hamas. Ankara did none of these things, yet still improved ties.
Turkey may have made some yet-to-be revealed promises, but this bold balancing act tracks with its broader foreign policy positioning. Ankara has found that it can go against the western grain – boosting trade with, rather than sanctioning, Russia; attacking the US-partnered YPG; refusing to approve new Nato members; and sidelining free speech – and suffer minimal consequences as long as it simultaneously embraces the West’s agenda, as with the grain deal, hosting millions of refugees, supporting Ukrainian sovereignty and renewing ties with the likes of Saudi Arabia and Israel.
A zig for every zag seems to work just fine. Next up could be a meeting between Mr Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar Al Assad, possibly brokered by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Turkish officials have said a summit could happen before Turkey’s upcoming elections, set for June, and it would probably be seen as another example of Ankara thumbing its nose at the West.
So what might be the zag? Last month, neighbours and long-time foes Israel and Lebanon settled their long-standing maritime dispute. Now there’s talk that Lebanon and Syria will soon meet to nail down their borders in the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority, along with the unlikeliest of partners, Israel and Hamas, are set to seal a $1.4 billion deal to extract gas off the coast of Gaza.
Suddenly it’s not too far-fetched to imagine Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Libya and Israel largely aligned on maritime borders and Mediterranean energy. And with the backing of Gulf states, this group might be able to bring Greece and Cyprus on-side as well.
You might recall that it was Mr Putin who told Mr Erdogan, just last month, that his vision of Turkey as an energy hub could be made real. At a meeting in north-eastern Syria on the weekend, Russia urged the YPG to withdraw southward and allow Syrian regime forces to take control of a buffer zone along the Turkish border. Such a shift would eliminate the need for another Turkish incursion and clear the way for an Assad-Erdogan summit.
The timing is good, as Ankara expects to resume drilling in the Mediterranean in the coming days and its Black Sea gas discovery is expected to come online in the next few months. With a bit of luck, Mr Erdogan might soon be well positioned to achieve his gas hub dreams and potentially provide Europe – struggling these days to wean itself from Russian gas – with a much-needed energy lifeline.
Zig, zag, zoom.
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
In 2018, the ICRC received 27,756 trace requests in the Middle East alone. The global total was 45,507.
There are 139,018 global trace requests that have not been resolved yet, 55,672 of these are in the Middle East region.
More than 540,000 individuals approached the ICRC in the Middle East asking to be reunited with missing loved ones in 2018.
The total figure for the entire world was 654,000 in 2018.
THE SPECS
Engine: Four-cylinder 2.5-litre
Transmission: Seven-speed auto
Power: 165hp
Torque: 241Nm
Price: Dh99,900 to Dh134,000
On sale: now
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Fast%20X
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What's in the deal?
Agreement aims to boost trade by £25.5bn a year in the long run, compared with a total of £42.6bn in 2024
India will slash levies on medical devices, machinery, cosmetics, soft drinks and lamb.
India will also cut automotive tariffs to 10% under a quota from over 100% currently.
Indian employees in the UK will receive three years exemption from social security payments
India expects 99% of exports to benefit from zero duty, raising opportunities for textiles, marine products, footwear and jewellery
Sui Dhaaga: Made in India
Director: Sharat Katariya
Starring: Varun Dhawan, Anushka Sharma, Raghubir Yadav
3.5/5
More coverage from the Future Forum
RESULTS
Bantamweight: Victor Nunes (BRA) beat Azizbek Satibaldiev (KYG). Round 1 KO
Featherweight: Izzeddin Farhan (JOR) beat Ozodbek Azimov (UZB). Round 1 rear naked choke
Middleweight: Zaakir Badat (RSA) beat Ercin Sirin (TUR). Round 1 triangle choke
Featherweight: Ali Alqaisi (JOR) beat Furkatbek Yokubov (UZB). Round 1 TKO
Featherweight: Abu Muslim Alikhanov (RUS) beat Atabek Abdimitalipov (KYG). Unanimous decision
Catchweight 74kg: Mirafzal Akhtamov (UZB) beat Marcos Costa (BRA). Split decision
Welterweight: Andre Fialho (POR) beat Sang Hoon-yu (KOR). Round 1 TKO
Lightweight: John Mitchell (IRE) beat Arbi Emiev (RUS). Round 2 RSC (deep cuts)
Middleweight: Gianni Melillo (ITA) beat Mohammed Karaki (LEB)
Welterweight: Handesson Ferreira (BRA) beat Amiran Gogoladze (GEO). Unanimous decision
Flyweight (Female): Carolina Jimenez (VEN) beat Lucrezia Ria (ITA), Round 1 rear naked choke
Welterweight: Daniel Skibinski (POL) beat Acoidan Duque (ESP). Round 3 TKO
Lightweight: Martun Mezhlumyan (ARM) beat Attila Korkmaz (TUR). Unanimous decision
Bantamweight: Ray Borg (USA) beat Jesse Arnett (CAN). Unanimous decision
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
ETFs explained
Exhchange traded funds are bought and sold like shares, but operate as index-tracking funds, passively following their chosen indices, such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and the FTSE All World, plus a vast range of smaller exchanges and commodities, such as gold, silver, copper sugar, coffee and oil.
ETFs have zero upfront fees and annual charges as low as 0.07 per cent a year, which means you get to keep more of your returns, as actively managed funds can charge as much as 1.5 per cent a year.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five biggest providers BlackRock’s iShares range, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs, Deutsche Bank AWM X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%20electric%20motors%20with%20102kW%20battery%20pack%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E570hp%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20890Nm%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERange%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Up%20to%20428km%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1%2C700%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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Aayan%E2%80%99s%20records
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THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
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What is the definition of an SME?
SMEs in the UAE are defined by the number of employees, annual turnover and sector. For example, a “small company” in the services industry has six to 50 employees with a turnover of more than Dh2 million up to Dh20m, while in the manufacturing industry the requirements are 10 to 100 employees with a turnover of more than Dh3m up to Dh50m, according to Dubai SME, an agency of the Department of Economic Development.
A “medium-sized company” can either have staff of 51 to 200 employees or 101 to 250 employees, and a turnover less than or equal to Dh200m or Dh250m, again depending on whether the business is in the trading, manufacturing or services sectors.
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
'Morbius'
Director: Daniel Espinosa
Stars: Jared Leto, Matt Smith, Adria Arjona
Rating: 2/5
IF YOU GO
The flights
FlyDubai flies direct from Dubai to Skopje in five hours from Dh1,314 return including taxes. Hourly buses from Skopje to Ohrid take three hours.
The tours
English-speaking guided tours of Ohrid town and the surrounding area are organised by Cultura 365; these cost €90 (Dh386) for a one-day trip including driver and guide and €100 a day (Dh429) for two people.
The hotels
Villa St Sofija in the old town of Ohrid, twin room from $54 (Dh198) a night.
St Naum Monastery, on the lake 30km south of Ohrid town, has updated its pilgrims' quarters into a modern 3-star hotel, with rooms overlooking the monastery courtyard and lake. Double room from $60 (Dh 220) a night.
The years Ramadan fell in May
