Dr Paul Sullivan is a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and senior research associate at the King Faisal Centre for Research and Islamic Studies
November 24, 2022
This month, the world reached 8 billion people. If that's not a big enough deal, there is every indication we will reach 9 billion in the next 15 years. To put the population growth in perspective, according to OurWorldinData, there were 1 billion in 1804, 2 billion in 1927, 3 billion in 1960, 4 billion in 1974, 5 billion in 1987, 6 billion in 1998, and 7 billion in 2010.
A world population chart over the long run shows a low population growth rate until about 1500, following which it started to pick up slowly. In the 1800s and 1900s, populations exploded as medical and health advances, industrial and agricultural improvements, and more effective and efficient energy, communications, and transport systems began to take hold in many parts of the world.
The idea of boiling and treating water probably saved uncountable people. Other potent examples are polio and smallpox vaccines and an improved understanding of the cardiovascular systems and cancers. Energy use, industry and agriculture improved the world’s output, too. And as time went on, more people benefited from this in a significant way.
Before these inventions and improvements, life was harsh, brutish and very short for most people. Most lived in underdeveloped and unhealthy rural areas. Most did not understand why people got sick and what could cure them. Only a tiny few were not dreadfully poor rural peasants.
Houses cover a hillside in the Petare neighbourhood of Caracas, Venezuela. The world's population hit an estimated eight billion people on November 15, according to the United Nations. AP
Damaris Ferrera with her baby at Damian Ferrera Altagracia Hospital – in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic – which symbolically named him the eight billionth inhabitant of the world. AP
Barbers on an abandoned train track in Abeokuta, about 70km outside Lagos, Nigeria. More than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania. EPA
Newborn babies at Hotel Dieu hospital in Beirut, Lebanon, as the world population surges past eight billion. Reuters
Crowds on Takeshita Street in Tokyo, considered to be the world's most populous metropolitan area. AFP
Nigeria is a significant contributor to world population growth. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa are expected to contribute more than half of the increase anticipated up to 2050, according to the UN. AP
A packed Ipanema beach in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. AP
Traffic chaos at Ojodu-Berger bus station in Lagos, Nigeria's commercial capital, which has a population of about 15 million. AFP
A crowded market in Jalandhar, India. AFP
A family taking pictures at the Temple of Heaven in Beijing. AP
Commuters waiting for buses in Manila, Philippines, where the city's 12 million population swells by three million during working hours. AFP
Mexico City is home to more than 20 million people. Reuters
Times Square in Manhattan. About nine million people live in New York's five boroughs. Reuters
A busy market in New Delhi, India, part of an urban area where the population is estimated to be 32 million. AP
Commuters at a train station in Hong Kong. AFP
Indian commuters get off trains at the Church Gate railway station in Mumbai, India. AP
A subway station in Seoul. The South Korean capital has a population approaching 10 million. AFP
The average lifespan averaged under 40 before 1800, according to OurWorldinData. By 1950, many parts of the world saw lifetimes increase by 20 years. However, there remained places where life expectancy continued to be much lower, such as in sub-Saharan Africa, South-East Asia and Latin America. Improvements were uneven and unequal.
Significant changes for most parts of the world, including Asia and Africa, happened only in the past 70 years. India and China, in particular, have made great strides towards longer and healthier lives since the 1970s. A baby born now in almost all places in the world should expect a much longer and healthier life, on average, than their grandparents and certainly better than earlier generations.
However, there has been a flip side to development.
Global population growth since the Industrial Revolution drove emissions of greenhouse gases, air, water and land pollution, the denuding of forests, a reduction in fish stocks, and the massive increases in monoculture farming and livestock management. It also drove the movement of people from rural areas to cities. Of course, urbanisation has often led to higher incomes and wealth for many, but it has also bred problems such as instability, crime and violence.
Urbanisation continues to grow worldwide, with 56 per cent of humanity living in cities today, according to the World Bank's Urban Development Overview released last month. The development of megacities with huge shanty towns attached to them, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, can lead to social problems.
There is, certainly, the counterargument that our population isn't growing as fast as it once did. UN statistics collated in 2021 show that about 60 per cent of the world population live in countries that are at or below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. It was 40 per cent just two years earlier. This lessens the economic, resource and environmental stresses considerably.
The problem, however, is that population growth is uneven across the globe. In fact, we have a somewhat bifurcated world, with some parts having youthful societies and growing populations, such as Nigeria, India and Egypt, while others are ageing societies with declining populations, such as Japan, Italy and Portugal. Most of the coming 1 billion added over the next 15 years are expected to come from India, China, Nigeria, Egypt, Pakistan, and some struggling countries in South Asia and Africa.
When there are too many younger people or too many older people, there are increased stresses on economies and societies due to the very high “dependency ratios", which measure how much the working populations need to take care of the non-working younger and older people. Old-age dependency is highest in the more developed North America, Europe, Australia and Japan. Youth dependency is highest in the less developed sub-Saharan Africa, Yemen, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Both issues could pose significant problems as we head to the 9 billion mark.
Ageing populations put pressure on social insurance schemes, inflation, investments and medical systems. Ageing countries will, therefore, need to adjust as their societies get older. The budgets required to make that happen might not be available due to the unfavourable demographics.
Global food security has been under particular strain in recent months. Bloomberg
Youthful and growing populations, on the other hand, offer countries a chance to develop with the numbers and energy of those people. However, how successful they will be will depend on how those young people will be educated and trained, where the investments will come from to absorb those youthful workers, and how they can keep the per capita incomes and wealth growing to keep peace in their countries.
Rapidly growing and young populations also put stress on food systems. Inheritance laws can also break up farms and other properties into smaller, less efficient ones. Increased youthful populations can cause more, not less, poverty if not appropriately handled. Having a growing young population, therefore, is no guarantee of future success.
When we consider the environmental problems that could result from 1 billion more people globally, climate change could be moving faster towards tipping points when those new 1 billion arrive and begin maturing. Challenges related to economic justice and environmental justice will no doubt arise, particularly for people living in the younger but poorer countries. The lack of a framework to deal with these challenges could pose as constant threats to world peace and prosperity.
Given how interconnected we are, what happens in faraway places can significantly affect our countries, cities, towns and families. This makes dealing with global issues for the sake of the greater good, ourselves and the next billion all the more urgent.
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Founder: Jon Richards, founder and chief executive; Samer Chebab, co-founder and chief operating officer, and Jonathan Rawlings, co-founder and chief financial officer
Based: Media City, Dubai
Sector: Financial services
Size: 120 employees
Investors: 2014: $500,000 in a seed round led by Mulverhill Associates; 2015: $3m in Series A funding led by STC Ventures (managed by Iris Capital), Wamda and Dubai Silicon Oasis Authority; 2019: $8m in Series B funding with the same investors as Series A along with Precinct Partners, Saned and Argo Ventures (the VC arm of multinational insurer Argo Group)
Red flags
Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
One in nine do not have enough to eat
Created in 1961, the World Food Programme is pledged to fight hunger worldwide as well as providing emergency food assistance in a crisis.
One of the organisation’s goals is the Zero Hunger Pledge, adopted by the international community in 2015 as one of the 17 Sustainable Goals for Sustainable Development, to end world hunger by 2030.
The WFP, a branch of the United Nations, is funded by voluntary donations from governments, businesses and private donations.
Almost two thirds of its operations currently take place in conflict zones, where it is calculated that people are more than three times likely to suffer from malnutrition than in peaceful countries.
It is currently estimated that one in nine people globally do not have enough to eat.
On any one day, the WFP estimates that it has 5,000 lorries, 20 ships and 70 aircraft on the move.
Outside emergencies, the WFP provides school meals to up to 25 million children in 63 countries, while working with communities to improve nutrition. Where possible, it buys supplies from developing countries to cut down transport cost and boost local economies.
The specs
Engine: four-litre V6 and 3.5-litre V6 twin-turbo
Transmission: six-speed and 10-speed
Power: 271 and 409 horsepower
Torque: 385 and 650Nm
Price: from Dh229,900 to Dh355,000
Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
NOVAK DJOKOVIC
19 grand slam singles titles
Wimbledon: 5 (2011, 14, 15, 18, 19)
French Open: 2 (2016, 21)
US Open: 3 (2011, 15, 18)
Australian Open: 9 (2008, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 19, 20, 21)
Prize money: $150m
ROGER FEDERER
20 grand slam singles titles
Wimbledon: 8 (2003, 04, 05, 06, 07, 09, 12, 17)
French Open: 1 (2009)
US Open: 5 (2004, 05, 06, 07, 08)
Australian Open: 6 (2004, 06, 07, 10, 17, 18)
Prize money: $130m
RAFAEL NADAL
20 grand slam singles titles
Wimbledon: 2 (2008, 10)
French Open: 13 (2005, 06, 07, 08, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 17, 18, 19, 20)
US Open: 4 (2010, 13, 17, 19)
Australian Open: 1 (2009)
Prize money: $125m
The Brutalist
Director: Brady Corbet
Stars: Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, Joe Alwyn
Rating: 3.5/5
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Essentials The flights: You can fly from the UAE to Iceland with one stop in Europe with a variety of airlines. Return flights with Emirates from Dubai to Stockholm, then Icelandair to Reykjavik, cost from Dh4,153 return. The whole trip takes 11 hours. British Airways flies from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Reykjavik, via London, with return flights taking 12 hours and costing from Dh2,490 return, including taxes. The activities: A half-day Silfra snorkelling trip costs 14,990 Icelandic kronur (Dh544) with Dive.is. Inside the Volcano also takes half a day and costs 42,000 kronur (Dh1,524). The Jokulsarlon small-boat cruise lasts about an hour and costs 9,800 kronur (Dh356). Into the Glacier costs 19,500 kronur (Dh708). It lasts three to four hours. The tours: It’s often better to book a tailor-made trip through a specialist operator. UK-based Discover the World offers seven nights, self-driving, across the island from £892 (Dh4,505) per person. This includes three nights’ accommodation at Hotel Husafell near Into the Glacier, two nights at Hotel Ranga and two nights at the Icelandair Hotel Klaustur. It includes car rental, plus an iPad with itinerary and tourist information pre-loaded onto it, while activities can be booked as optional extras. More information inspiredbyiceland.com
How Apple's credit card works
The Apple Card looks different from a traditional credit card — there's no number on the front and the users' name is etched in metal. The card expands the company's digital Apple Pay services, marrying the physical card to a virtual one and integrating both with the iPhone. Its attributes include quick sign-up, elimination of most fees, strong security protections and cash back.
What does it cost?
Apple says there are no fees associated with the card. That means no late fee, no annual fee, no international fee and no over-the-limit fees. It also said it aims to have among the lowest interest rates in the industry. Users must have an iPhone to use the card, which comes at a cost. But they will earn cash back on their purchases — 3 per cent on Apple purchases, 2 per cent on those with the virtual card and 1 per cent with the physical card. Apple says it is the only card to provide those rewards in real time, so that cash earned can be used immediately.
What will the interest rate be?
The card doesn't come out until summer but Apple has said that as of March, the variable annual percentage rate on the card could be anywhere from 13.24 per cent to 24.24 per cent based on creditworthiness. That's in line with the rest of the market, according to analysts
What about security?
The physical card has no numbers so purchases are made with the embedded chip and the digital version lives in your Apple Wallet on your phone, where it's protected by fingerprints or facial recognition. That means that even if someone steals your phone, they won't be able to use the card to buy things.
Is it easy to use?
Apple says users will be able to sign up for the card in the Wallet app on their iPhone and begin using it almost immediately. It also tracks spending on the phone in a more user-friendly format, eliminating some of the gibberish that fills a traditional credit card statement. Plus it includes some budgeting tools, such as tracking spending and providing estimates of how much interest could be charged on a purchase to help people make an informed decision.
When the W Dubai – The Palm hotel opens at the end of this year, one of the highlights will be Massimo Bottura’s new restaurant, Torno Subito, which promises “to take guests on a journey back to 1960s Italy”. It is the three Michelinstarred chef’s first venture in Dubai and should be every bit as ambitious as you would expect from the man whose restaurant in Italy, Osteria Francescana, was crowned number one in this year’s list of the World’s 50 Best Restaurants.
Akira Back Dubai
Another exciting opening at the W Dubai – The Palm hotel is South Korean chef Akira Back’s new restaurant, which will continue to showcase some of the finest Asian food in the world. Back, whose Seoul restaurant, Dosa, won a Michelin star last year, describes his menu as, “an innovative Japanese cuisine prepared with a Korean accent”.
Dinner by Heston Blumenthal
The highly experimental chef, whose dishes are as much about spectacle as taste, opens his first restaurant in Dubai next year. Housed at The Royal Atlantis Resort & Residences, Dinner by Heston Blumenthal will feature contemporary twists on recipes that date back to the 1300s, including goats’ milk cheesecake. Always remember with a Blumenthal dish: nothing is quite as it seems.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Key facilities
Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
Premier League-standard football pitch
400m Olympic running track
NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
600-seat auditorium
Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
Specialist robotics and science laboratories
AR and VR-enabled learning centres
Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
MATCH INFO
CAF Champions League semi-finals first-leg fixtures
Tuesday:
Primeiro Agosto (ANG) v Esperance (TUN) (8pm UAE)
Al Ahly (EGY) v Entente Setif (ALG) (11PM)
Second legs:
October 23
'Saand Ki Aankh'
Produced by: Reliance Entertainment with Chalk and Cheese Films
Director: Tushar Hiranandani
Cast: Taapsee Pannu, Bhumi Pednekar, Prakash Jha, Vineet Singh
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples. Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts. Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Checking: the obsession or thoughts focus on some harm coming from things not being as they should, which usually centre around the theme of safety. For example, the obsession is “the building will burn down”, therefore the compulsion is checking that the oven is switched off.
Contamination: the obsession is focused on the presence of germs, dirt or harmful bacteria and how this will impact the person and/or their loved ones. For example, the obsession is “the floor is dirty; me and my family will get sick and die”, the compulsion is repetitive cleaning.
Orderliness: the obsession is a fear of sitting with uncomfortable feelings, or to prevent harm coming to oneself or others. Objectively there appears to be no logical link between the obsession and compulsion. For example,” I won’t feel right if the jars aren’t lined up” or “harm will come to my family if I don’t line up all the jars”, so the compulsion is therefore lining up the jars.
Intrusive thoughts: the intrusive thought is usually highly distressing and repetitive. Common examples may include thoughts of perpetrating violence towards others, harming others, or questions over one’s character or deeds, usually in conflict with the person’s true values. An example would be: “I think I might hurt my family”, which in turn leads to the compulsion of avoiding social gatherings.
Hoarding: the intrusive thought is the overvaluing of objects or possessions, while the compulsion is stashing or hoarding these items and refusing to let them go. For example, “this newspaper may come in useful one day”, therefore, the compulsion is hoarding newspapers instead of discarding them the next day.
Source: Dr Robert Chandler, clinical psychologist at Lighthouse Arabia
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
Flexible work arrangements
Pension support
Mental well-being assistance
Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
Job: Coder, website designer and chief executive, Trinet solutions
School: Year 8 pupil at Elite English School in Abu Hail, Deira
Role Models: Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk
Dream City: San Francisco
Hometown: Dubai
City of birth: Thiruvilla, Kerala
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now
Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.
The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.
1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):
a. Dh10,000 ÷ 30 = Dh333.33. Your daily wage is Dh333.33
b. Dh333.33 x 21 = Dh7,000. So 21 days salary equates to Dh7,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service. Multiply this figure for every year of service up to five years.
2. For those who have worked more than five years
c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.
Note: The maximum figure cannot exceed two years total salary figure.
if you go
The flights
Emirates offer flights to Buenos Aires from Dubai, via Rio De Janeiro from around Dh6,300. emirates.com
Seeing the games
Tangol sell experiences across South America and generally have good access to tickets for most of the big teams in Buenos Aires: Boca Juniors, River Plate, and Independiente. Prices from Dh550 and include pick up and drop off from your hotel in the city. tangol.com
Staying there
Tangol will pick up tourists from any hotel in Buenos Aires, but after the intensity of the game, the Faena makes for tranquil, upmarket accommodation. Doubles from Dh1,110. faena.com
Glossary of a stock market revolution
Reddit
A discussion website
Redditor
The users of Reddit
Robinhood
A smartphone app for buying and selling shares
Short seller
Selling a stock today in the belief its price will fall in the future
