Smoke rises in the village of Przewodow, near Poland's border with Ukraine, where two people were killed by an explosion apparently caused by a missile. Reuters
Damage caused by the explosion in Przewodow. Reuters
Damage caused by the explosion in Przewodow. Reuters
Police vehicles at a checkpoint after a security cordon was set up around the village. Getty
The police blockade around Przewodow. Reuters
Polish President Andrzej Duda said Polish defence chiefs had met in Warsaw. EPA
Polish government spokesman Piotr Mueller and security chief Jacek Siewiera at the meeting in Warsaw. EPA
US President Joe Biden talks on the phone with Polish President Andrzej Duda as White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan, center, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken listen, in Bali, Indonesia. AP
Nato and G7 leaders at the G20 leaders' summit in Bali, Indonesia, hold a meeting to discuss the explosions. AFP
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
November 20, 2022
There was a moment of panic this week when a missile landed in Poland, killing two people. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it was a Russian missile, but this notion was challenged by US President Joe Biden and other Nato leaders who said the evidence indicated it was an Ukrainian air defence missile intended to shoot down one of about 100 cruise missiles Russia had launched against Ukrainian cities.
The western prudence was not the result of a change in attitude towards Moscow or its war against Ukraine. It was more a reflection of caution against slipping into a possible third world war.
In truth, Nato member Poland inadvertently being drawn into the Ukraine war is an accident waiting to happen, or in the future could be an intended accident unless the conflict is contained or ended. A cold winter is coming, Russia's bombardment campaign is ongoing, and the risk of nuclear war stands. This episode could be a useful opportunity for leaders to consider the options available to them in light of developments on the battlefield.
Gen Mark Milley, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, again appealed to Kyiv to use its military advantage to begin peace talks with Moscow. Gen Milley’s view is that completely dislodging Russian forces from Ukraine will not be easily attainable for Mr Zelenskyy, given Moscow’s determination to maintain control of Crimea.
Mr Biden was reportedly upset this week by Mr Zelenskyy’s conduct. To some, the latter had prematurely accused Moscow of striking Poland to mobilise more support for his country. This, while the G20 summit in Bali was going on.
The Kremlin praised Mr Biden's “measured” response, signalling its readiness for negotiations to end the war, even if just to test the waters. Mr Biden and US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan had previously said it was up to Ukraine to decide whether it was ready for talks. Implicit in this message was an appeal to Kyiv to negotiate. At the same time, Washington realises that the Kremlin won’t accept a deal to reverse its annexation of Ukrainian territories, and is aware that Russian President Vladimir views peace talks as a sign of defeat for his government.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore on Thursday. Bloomberg
There are voices in Ukraine encouraging the leadership to accept a ceasefire, because of the devastation
All this means that the worst is yet to come. There are also no guarantees that a Russia-Nato war, as a result of a calculated error or an accident, can be contained.
However, ideas are being exchanged behind the scenes in the concerned capitals, including to distinguish between a ceasefire and a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine. A peace treaty requires making a deal on the disputed territories, which seems impossible right now.
“This is a conflict between two constitutions – not between two presidents,” one expert told me, referring to the notion that both countries recognise the territories in question to be theirs. So, as another expert in the know put it, negotiations should instead focus on "security principles and guarantees for the two countries and finding creative formulas that bypass the issue of territories”.
It is believed that steps are being taken that could lead to negotiations – not between the leaders of the two countries but at a lower level – focused on affirming Ukraine's de jure ownership of the territories while acknowledging they are under Russian administration.
I am given to understand that Germany and France are pushing for a Christmas ceasefire between December 20 and January 15, which has Kyiv's implicit approval despite its public insistence on the 10 points it put forward to the G20 summit by way of a roadmap towards negotiations.
There are voices in Ukraine encouraging the leadership to accept a ceasefire, because of the devastation. Kyiv expects up to 50 per cent of the country’s infrastructure will be destroyed if the Russian bombardment continues at its current pace.
On the other hand, accepting a ceasefire would be difficult for the Kremlin, especially as some in the military would see this as a repetition of the Minsk agreements. Eventually, however, accepting a ceasefire would be a political decision that would have to be made by Mr Putin.
Some world powers oppose Nato’s push to drive Russia out of Europe, inflict a crushing defeat on Moscow, and perhaps even remove Mr Putin from power. At the Bali summit, it was clear that China, India and Indonesia had reservations about Nato’s conduct. It’s promising, therefore, that Mr Biden's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping produced a consensus and a shared message to Moscow that nuclear threats are unacceptable.
Joe Biden, Antony Blinken and Jake Sullivan speak with Polish President Andrzej Duda at the G20 summit in Bali last week. Reuters
An evident feature of their meeting was the two leaders' careful navigation of issues and a determination to avoid confrontation. They clung to their traditional, divergent positions on several issues, from Taiwan to the economy to their rivalry on strategic dominance. But they avoided using a tone of escalation, defiance and obstruction. Mr Biden affirmed he did not believe the US and China were in a new cold war. The two presidents also signalled a readiness for dialogue to resolve differences.
Their meeting was, in that sense, reassuring.
The Bali summit was an overall success for Mr Biden, who emerged as a serious, composed leader while handling a major crisis. He did not make hasty decisions following the strike inside Poland, nor did he attempt to outmanoeuvre Mr Xi. He might, therefore, have passed important foreign policy tests.
By contrast, his predecessor, Donald Trump, is fighting a domestic battle imposed on him by the unfavourable outcome of the midterm elections that revealed a structural weakness that could affect his 2024 presidential run. Mr Trump did not tackle foreign policy during his announcement to run, except to criticise the Biden administration’s chaotic withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan last year. Mr Trump linked the restoration of American "greatness” to his desired return to the White House, but he did not put forward a programme of global leadership as had been anticipated.
The midterm elections ended up thinning out extremists from both the Democratic and Republican camps. The message from American voters was that they need pragmatism and wisdom during a difficult time for the world at large.
Pragmatism and wisdom were indeed on display last week, in managing a number of the world’s pressing issues. But the powers that be will appreciate that is really no alternative to a strategic resolution of unconstrained wars and unpredictable escalations. There is no time to lose.
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
if you go
The flights
Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.
The hotel
Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.
The tour
Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg
Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally • Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered • Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity • Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
Brolliology: A History of the Umbrella in Life and Literature
By Marion Rankine
Melville House
The specs
Engine: 8.0-litre, quad-turbo 16-cylinder
Transmission: 7-speed auto
0-100kmh 2.3 seconds
0-200kmh 5.5 seconds
0-300kmh 11.6 seconds
Power: 1500hp
Torque: 1600Nm
Price: Dh13,400,000
On sale: now
Key facilities
Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
Premier League-standard football pitch
400m Olympic running track
NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
600-seat auditorium
Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
Specialist robotics and science laboratories
AR and VR-enabled learning centres
Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
New Zealand T20 squad
New Zealand T20 squad: Tim Southee (captain), Finn Allen, Todd Astle, Hamish Bennett, Mark Chapman, Devon Conway (wicketkeeper), Lockie Ferguson, Martin Guptill, Adam Milne, Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Ish Sodhi, Will Young
2000: Israel withdraws from Lebanon after nearly 30 years without an officially demarcated border. The UN establishes the Blue Line to act as the frontier.
2007: Lebanon and Cyprus define their respective exclusive economic zones to facilitate oil and gas exploration. Israel uses this to define its EEZ with Cyprus
2011: Lebanon disputes Israeli-proposed line and submits documents to UN showing different EEZ. Cyprus offers to mediate without much progress.
2018: Lebanon signs first offshore oil and gas licencing deal with consortium of France’s Total, Italy’s Eni and Russia’s Novatek.
2018-2019: US seeks to mediate between Israel and Lebanon to prevent clashes over oil and gas resources.
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
