The Mena region displays divergent recovery patterns in the post-Covid era, with oil exporters growing at a relatively faster pace. But a global economic downturn is looming. What are the priorities for the region’s financial community?
Medium and long-term risks in Mena (like climate change and regional conflicts) notwithstanding, the GCC, largely recovered from Covid-19, should shift on to an “Economic Diversification 2.0” path. While the so-called “Gulf falcons”, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are the frontrunners with regard to actively diversifying away from oil, future growth prospects require a focus on the “new economy”, in addition to the “old” non-oil sectors (like tourism, infrastructure and logistics) that supported the “Economic Diversification 1.0” phase. But moving to a new diversification path necessitates new tools and investments.
There are multiple drivers of Economic Diversification 2.0. First, the new economy (including industry 5.0, the Internet of Things, AI, blockchain, FinTech and virtual assets) should be supported by an enabling set of investments and policies. This includes a broad-based embracing of the digital economy, in addition to increased investments (both domestic and regional) from the region’s financial markets and sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), which are able to deploy more than $3 trillion in liquid wealth.
This should go in tandem with developing and deploying countercyclical monetary and fiscal tools and policies. The International Monetary Fund estimates that the region’s oil producers could accumulate around $1tn in oil windfalls between 2022 and 2026. These funds should be used to secure fiscal sustainability, a move that has already been evident in the recent months with most GCC nations avoiding the temptation of increased spending. While reining in spending, policymakers could also use this opportunity to mobilise non-oil revenues and phase out costly generalised subsidies in favour of cash income transfers and targeted subsidies.
Policymakers could also use this opportunity to mobilise non-oil revenues and phase out costly generalised subsidies
Liberalisation and structural reforms go hand in hand with the above-mentioned policy tools. This includes labour market reforms (like long-term residency and incentives to raise female labour force participation rates), alongside encouraging more private sector activity and accelerated capital market development. Last but not least, policies that support regional economic integration should be encouraged by accelerating the outward orientation of trade and investment policies towards Asia and Africa, other Arab countries, and the development of the Red Sea Basin, among others.
As the GCC embarks on Economic Diversification 2.0, financial markets need to be the handmaiden of growth and become an enabler of economic transformation. The low hanging fruit is the use of government debt markets to finance infrastructure and development projects as well as smooth volatile government finances. Government debt markets can become a growing source of funding to diversify away from reliance on bank financing, especially for long-term projects.
Structural change requires growing the role of the private sector. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are already undertaking a concerted push towards the privatisation of certain state-owned assets and enterprises to de-risk fossil fuel assets, with the advantages of raising revenues, diversifying financial markets, and attracting foreign investment. Recently enacted public-private partnership laws will also encourage privatisation, attract new tech and innovation and foster job creation. Financing mega projects and infrastructure via capital markets, and more efficient management of public assets will boost the development of broader, deeper and more liquid capital markets, also enabling the region’s SWFs to more efficiently manage their growing wealth and domestic assets, thereby increasing financial access and deepening. Indeed, the SWFs are recalibrating their asset allocation to focus on the region to drive growth. As a case in point, Saudi Arabia’s PIF plans to invest $24 billion in six Arab nations.
The ongoing global energy crisis, along with technological innovation lowering the cost of renewables, has created the conditions for a new global energy map. Alongside the GCC’s existing energy linkages with Asia, new links can now be forged with Europe for gas and green/ blue hydrogen. These structural changes should be supported by a multi-faceted energy transition strategy by the region’s oil producers that includes focusing on renewables, clean energy, clean technology, hydrogen and nuclear projects in light of their net-zero emissions commitments. The path to achieving the region’s ambitious renewable energy targets will require massive investments, which can be financed by the issuance of green bonds and Sukuks in the regional markets and by creating dedicated “green banks” and “green funds”.
More from Nasser Saidi and Aathira Prasad
For digitalisation to transform the region’s economies, investments will be required in disruptive technologies and digital payments, in addition to financing digital infrastructure to expand the reach of the digital economy. Many GCC governments are already on the forefront when it comes to adoption of digital technologies: be it e-government or embracing blockchain technology in the public sector or digital currencies (for instance, Project Aber, created by the central banks of the UAE and Saudi Arabia). The region’s financial regulators and capital markets led by the Gulf Falcons are embracing FinTech and crypto assets. Supporting mainstream digital solutions like MedTech, AgriTech and EduTech will increase the pace of digitalisation, assisting economic transformation.
The global political economy is under strain. The GCC has an opportunity to benefit from global decoupling and fragmentation by its unfolding “regionalised globalisation” strategy, driving and supporting regional economic integration. A growing number of free trade agreements are linking new economic partners and strengthening existing relations, while tools like foreign aid, finance of regional trade, building and sharing the services of infrastructure facilities as well as FDI and portfolio investments are transforming and improving the growth and development prospects of a broad GCC-connected region, including Mena, East Africa and Asia.
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Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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Canada
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A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
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If you go...
Etihad Airways flies from Abu Dhabi to Kuala Lumpur, from about Dh3,600. Air Asia currently flies from Kuala Lumpur to Terengganu, with Berjaya Hotels & Resorts planning to launch direct chartered flights to Redang Island in the near future. Rooms at The Taaras Beach and Spa Resort start from 680RM (Dh597).
Cry Macho
Director: Clint Eastwood
Stars: Clint Eastwood, Dwight Yoakam
Rating:**
Uefa Nations League: How it Works
The Uefa Nations League, introduced last year, has reached its final stage, to be played over five days in northern Portugal. The format of its closing tournament is compact, spread over two semi-finals, with the first, Portugal versus Switzerland in Porto on Wednesday evening, and the second, England against the Netherlands, in Guimaraes, on Thursday.
The winners of each semi will then meet at Porto’s Dragao stadium on Sunday, with the losing semi-finalists contesting a third-place play-off in Guimaraes earlier that day.
Qualifying for the final stage was via League A of the inaugural Nations League, in which the top 12 European countries according to Uefa's co-efficient seeding system were divided into four groups, the teams playing each other twice between September and November. Portugal, who finished above Italy and Poland, successfully bid to host the finals.
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What is hepatitis?
Hepatitis is an inflammation of the liver, which can lead to fibrosis (scarring), cirrhosis or liver cancer.
There are 5 main hepatitis viruses, referred to as types A, B, C, D and E.
Hepatitis C is mostly transmitted through exposure to infective blood. This can occur through blood transfusions, contaminated injections during medical procedures, and through injecting drugs. Sexual transmission is also possible, but is much less common.
People infected with hepatitis C experience few or no symptoms, meaning they can live with the virus for years without being diagnosed. This delay in treatment can increase the risk of significant liver damage.
There are an estimated 170 million carriers of Hepatitis C around the world.
The virus causes approximately 399,000 fatalities each year worldwide, according to WHO.
Race card
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 (PA) US$100,000 (Dirt) 2,000m
7.05pm: Meydan Classic Listed (TB) $175,000 (Turf) 1,600m
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (D) 1,600m
8.50pm: Nad Al Sheba Trophy Group 2 (TB) $300,000 (T) 2,810m
9.25pm: Curlin Stakes Listed (TB) $175,000 (D) 2,000m
10pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m
10.35pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m
The National selections
6.30pm: Shahm, 7.05pm: Well Of Wisdom, 7.40pm: Lucius Tiberius, 8.15pm: Captain Von Trapp, 8.50pm: Secret Advisor, 9.25pm: George Villiers, 10pm: American Graffiti, 10.35pm: On The Warpath
if you go
The flights
Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.
The hotel
Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.
The tour
Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Company Profile:
Name: The Protein Bakeshop
Date of start: 2013
Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani
Based: Dubai
Size, number of employees: 12
Funding/investors: $400,000 (2018)
Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital
Five healthy carbs and how to eat them
Brown rice: consume an amount that fits in the palm of your hand
Non-starchy vegetables, such as broccoli: consume raw or at low temperatures, and don’t reheat
Oatmeal: look out for pure whole oat grains or kernels, which are locally grown and packaged; avoid those that have travelled from afar
Fruit: a medium bowl a day and no more, and never fruit juices
Lentils and lentil pasta: soak these well and cook them at a low temperature; refrain from eating highly processed pasta variants
Courtesy Roma Megchiani, functional nutritionist at Dubai’s 77 Veggie Boutique
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 2
(Martial 30', McTominay 90 6')
Manchester City 0
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