Last week, German chancellor Olaf Scholz became the first leader of a G7 country to visit China since the pandemic began. He earned himself plenty of criticism, both at home and abroad, from those who want western countries to distance themselves from Beijing. I, on the other hand, think that Mr Scholz deserves full credit for showing that, in an increasingly divided world, countries can still choose the path of peace and co-operation. I hope others follow his example.
In the 1980s, fears of a catastrophic global conflict were visceral. I can remember as a teenager at boarding school in Britain being weighed down by the likelihood that there might not be any future – that humanity could easily be destroyed by nuclear war. I have never felt a similar sense of dread since, until recently. It struck me as I read the first in a series of analyses written by Hal Brands, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, about potential war between the US and China in the Asia Pacific. “Just two years ago, it was still a fringe opinion” to suggest there might be “a major regional conflict in the 2020s,” he wrote. “Now, in Washington at least, that view is becoming conventional wisdom.”
The conflict might be over Taiwan, but wherever it began, it would likely expand across the entire region: “A US-China war would have cascading consequences… There would be a very real prospect of nuclear escalation.”
Now, as an editor, policy analyst and columnist, I have been engaging with how the US will accommodate or seek to block China’s rise for well over a decade. The Princeton historian Aaron Friedberg wrote a book, “A Contest for Supremacy”, warning of the risks of conflict way back in 2011, several years before Harvard’s Graham Allison wrote his famous essay for The Atlantic: “The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?”
I always felt assured that the answer was “no” – for why should there be any inevitability about it? What chilled me about Prof Brands’s article was not just the realisation that so few in the US today are interested in trying to see the world from Beijing’s perspective – a Southeast Asian friend who works at a Washington think tank tells me that any who do are disparagingly labelled “panda lovers” – but that the division in the foreign policy establishment is now, as the Singaporean thinker Kishore Mahbubani recently put it, between “the hawkish voices and the irresponsibly hawkish voices”.
This is now a multipolar world which therefore needs a 'multipolar pattern' not 'new blocs'
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz
US President Joe Biden has effectively ended the policy of “strategic ambiguity” over Taiwan. He has made it clear that if China seeks reunification with the island by force the US will intervene militarily. When American officials act provocatively, such as when Speaker Nancy Pelosi made a visit in August to Taiwan, which China considers to be a renegade province, any follow-up action by Beijing is then considered by Washington to be an escalation, rather than a response to be expected.
The consequent bellicose rhetoric coming from all sides in the US, says Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, could “end up provoking the war that we seek to deter”. Living as I do in Malaysia, this would not be some distant event. It would be a conflagration right on our doorstep that countries in the region would desperately try to keep out of – but could be dragged into against their will.
In the past, one of the reasons many were so confident this would never come to pass was simple. For at least 20 years, annual trade between the US and China ran into the hundreds of billions. According to Chinese authorities, it stood at $755 billion in 2021. Surely nobody in their right mind would risk that?
But now countries are being urged by Washington to “decouple” from China. Not only that, last month the US Department of Commerce issued a ban on exports to China of semiconductor chips and other high-tech software and hardware – which an analyst at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies described as “a new US policy of actively strangling large segments of the Chinese technology industry”.
A member of Mr Scholz’s delegation to Beijing told Asia Times: “China will not be able to sit on its hands if its ability to progress economically is seriously and deliberately undermined… It’s an undeclared war, but a war all the same.”
This is dangerous and irresponsible. This is also why I am so glad that last week Mr Scholz made clear his opposition to decoupling and his commitment “to continue to deepen economic and trade co-operation with China”. This is not just in Germany’s self-interest, although it is, as China has been the country’s biggest trading partner for the last six years. It is also important that a major economy like Germany, which along with France is one of the two countries that can take the lead in the European Union, recognises that this is now a multipolar world which therefore needs a “multipolar pattern” not “new blocs”, as Mr Scholz put it.
The EU may have “accurately described China as filling the threefold role of partner, competitor and rival,” per Mr Scholz, who also made clear his differences with Beijing, but “we must explore where co-operation remains in our mutual interest. Ultimately, the world needs China.”
He’s right. And it is increased trade and co-operation that bind us together.
Mr Scholz knows that, as does his delegation member who told Asia Times: “We want to have China have a stake in peace. We do not want chip wars to lead to a totally destructive hot war.”
Neither does most of the rest of the world. The only people who could disagree are the armchair warriors in Washington who would leave the fighting and dying in their unnecessary wars to others. Let us hope Mr Scholz shows Europe and the West that the middle way is still intact, and that it is the only way if they truly want peace.
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From Europe to the Middle East, economic success brings wealth - and lifestyle diseases
A rise in obesity figures and the need for more public spending is a familiar trend in the developing world as western lifestyles are adopted.
One in five deaths around the world is now caused by bad diet, with obesity the fastest growing global risk. A high body mass index is also the top cause of metabolic diseases relating to death and disability in Kuwait, Qatar and Oman – and second on the list in Bahrain.
In Britain, heart disease, lung cancer and Alzheimer’s remain among the leading causes of death, and people there are spending more time suffering from health problems.
The UK is expected to spend $421.4 billion on healthcare by 2040, up from $239.3 billion in 2014.
And development assistance for health is talking about the financial aid given to governments to support social, environmental development of developing countries.
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
More Iraq election coverage:
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Fighter profiles
Gabrieli Pessanha (Brazil)
Reigning Abu Dhabi World Pro champion in the 95kg division, virtually unbeatable in her weight class. Known for her pressure game but also dangerous with her back on the mat.
Nathiely de Jesus, 23, (Brazil)
Two-time World Pro champion renowned for her aggressive game. She is tall and most feared by her opponents for both her triangles and arm-bar attacks.
Thamara Ferreira, 24, (Brazil)
Since her brown belt days, Ferreira has been dominating the 70kg, in both the World Pro and the Grand Slams. With a very aggressive game.
Samantha Cook, 32, (Britain)
One of the biggest talents coming out of Europe in recent times. She is known for a highly technical game and bringing her A game to the table as always.
Kendall Reusing, 22, (USA)
Another young gun ready to explode in the big leagues. The Californian resident is a powerhouse in the -95kg division. Her duels with Pessanha have been highlights in the Grand Slams.
Martina Gramenius, 32, (Sweden)
Already a two-time Grand Slam champion in the current season. Gramenius won golds in the 70kg, in both in Moscow and Tokyo, to earn a spot in the inaugural Queen of Mats.
SERIE A FIXTURES
Friday (UAE kick-off times)
Sassuolo v Bologna (11.45pm)
Saturday
Brescia v Torino (6pm)
Inter Milan v Verona (9pm)
Napoli v Genoa (11.45pm)
Sunday
Cagliari v Verona (3.30pm)
Udinese v SPAL (6pm)
Sampdoria v Atalanta (6pm)
Lazio v Lecce (6pm)
Parma v Roma (9pm)
Juventus v Milan (11.45pm)
About Takalam
Date started: early 2020
Founders: Khawla Hammad and Inas Abu Shashieh
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: HealthTech and wellness
Number of staff: 4
Funding to date: Bootstrapped
Company%20Profile
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Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Women%E2%80%99s%20T20%20World%20Cup%20Qualifier
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Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
Duterte Harry: Fire and Fury in the Philippines
Jonathan Miller, Scribe Publications
The biog
First Job: Abu Dhabi Department of Petroleum in 1974
Current role: Chairperson of Al Maskari Holding since 2008
Career high: Regularly cited on Forbes list of 100 most powerful Arab Businesswomen
Achievement: Helped establish Al Maskari Medical Centre in 1969 in Abu Dhabi’s Western Region
Future plan: Will now concentrate on her charitable work
MATCH INFO
Rugby World Cup (all times UAE)
Final: England v South Africa, Saturday, 1pm
The specs
BMW M8 Competition Coupe
Engine 4.4-litre twin-turbo V8
Power 625hp at 6,000rpm
Torque 750Nm from 1,800-5,800rpm
Gearbox Eight-speed paddleshift auto
Acceleration 0-100kph in 3.2 sec
Top speed 305kph
Fuel economy, combined 10.6L / 100km
Price from Dh700,000 (estimate)
On sale Jan/Feb 2020
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
Evacuations to France hit by controversy
- Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
- Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
- The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
- Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
- It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
- Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
- Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
Drivers’ championship standings after Singapore:
1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes - 263
2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari - 235
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes - 212
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull - 162
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari - 138
6. Sergio Perez, Force India - 68
The years Ramadan fell in May
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Results
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 Group 1 (PA) US$75,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Ziyadd, Richard Mullen (jockey), Jean de Roualle (trainer).
7.05pm: Al Rashidiya Group 2 (TB) $250,000 (Turf) 1,800m
Winner: Barney Roy, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
7.40pm: Meydan Cup Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,810m
Winner: Secret Advisor, Tadhg O’Shea, Charlie Appleby.
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Plata O Plomo, Carlos Lopez, Susanne Berneklint.
8.50pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: Salute The Soldier, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass.
9.25pm: Al Shindagha Sprint Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Gladiator King, Mickael Barzalona, Satish Seemar.
Playing records of the top 10 in 2017
How many games the top 10 have undertaken in the 2017 ATP season
1. Rafael Nadal 58 (49-9)
2. Andy Murray 35 (25-10)
3. Roger Federer 38 (35-3)
4. Stan Wawrinka 37 (26-11)
5. Novak Djokovic 40 (32-8)
6. Alexander Zverev 60 (46-14)
7. Marin Cilic 43 (29-14)
8. Dominic Thiem 60 (41-19)
9. Grigor Dimitrov 48 (34-14)
10. Kei Nishikori 43 (30-13)
Rajasthan Royals 153-5 (17.5 ov)
Delhi Daredevils 60-4 (6 ov)
Rajasthan won by 10 runs (D/L method)
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
More from Neighbourhood Watch
Know your Camel lingo
The bairaq is a competition for the best herd of 50 camels, named for the banner its winner takes home
Namoos - a word of congratulations reserved for falconry competitions, camel races and camel pageants. It best translates as 'the pride of victory' - and for competitors, it is priceless
Asayel camels - sleek, short-haired hound-like racers
Majahim - chocolate-brown camels that can grow to weigh two tonnes. They were only valued for milk until camel pageantry took off in the 1990s
Millions Street - the thoroughfare where camels are led and where white 4x4s throng throughout the festival
Company%20Profile
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The%20specs%3A%202024%20Mercedes%20E200
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
Company%20profile
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Plan to boost public schools
A major shake-up of government-run schools was rolled out across the country in 2017. Known as the Emirati School Model, it placed more emphasis on maths and science while also adding practical skills to the curriculum.
It was accompanied by the promise of a Dh5 billion investment, over six years, to pay for state-of-the-art infrastructure improvements.
Aspects of the school model will be extended to international private schools, the education minister has previously suggested.
Recent developments have also included the introduction of moral education - which public and private schools both must teach - along with reform of the exams system and tougher teacher licensing requirements.
Why seagrass matters
- Carbon sink: Seagrass sequesters carbon up to 35X faster than tropical rainforests
- Marine nursery: Crucial habitat for juvenile fish, crustations, and invertebrates
- Biodiversity: Support species like sea turtles, dugongs, and seabirds
- Coastal protection: Reduce erosion and improve water quality
