By all indications, the US midterm elections will be a nail-biter. Polls suggest that Democrats will have a difficult time maintaining their slim control of both houses of Congress. One factor is the president’s low approval ratings – often a sign that his party would be sailing into the headwinds of a dissatisfied electorate. But there are other issues at work, as well.
In the House of Representatives, Democratic prospects never looked promising. After the decennial redistricting congressional maps were finalised, Republicans came out ahead, with some Democratic seats eliminated and Republicans gaining enough new “safe” Republican districts to give them a structural edge to take control of the House. And so, despite some expressions of Democratic hope or bravado, it is quite unlikely that they will retain leadership in the House.
The Senate is a different story. There are 34 seats being contested – only 13 of them are incumbent Democrats, while 21 are Republicans. Of the 34, 10 are considered vulnerable, five in each party. Because the Senate is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, all Democrats need to do is break even to maintain their leadership of that body.
Two months ago, several factors pointed to an advantage for Democrats. Their Senate candidates were better, and polls showed that their issues were resonating with voters. Republicans had nominated a few far-right Trump-endorsed people who were “election deniers” and had, to be kind, less than exemplary resumes. It looked promising that Democrats would hold on to at least four of their five vulnerable seats, while being able to flip at least one or two of the currently held Republican seats.
In recent weeks, the situation has changed and polling in all these contests show them tightening to within a few points. What happened?
Hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent by the campaigns, the parties, and outside partisan groups in an effort to paint these elections in the starkest of terms. Both sides have preyed on fear and blame. For Republicans it is: the fear of inflation, blaming Democrats for the high price of gas and food; the fear of crime, blaming Democrats for their criticism of policing; and the fear of out-of-control immigration, blaming Democrats for supporting “open borders” and their acceptance of the undocumented.
For Democrats it is: fear that Republicans will block all paths to a woman’s right to abortion; blaming Republicans for refusing to accept gun control legislation; and fear that American democracy is at risk from the supporters of former President Donald Trump, who not only maintain that the 2020 election was stolen, but also continue to defend the January 6th insurrection and those in a position to do so, are putting in place laws and practices designed to make it harder to vote.
The obscene amounts of money spent advertising these messages nationwide have served to deepen the treacherous partisan divide, making an already polarised political environment even more so. And they have played to the advantage of the Republicans.
Two recent polls explain how this has worked. The first, from NYT/Siena College, showed that “the share of voters citing the economy, inflation, crime, and immigration as the most important problem facing the country increased to 52 per cent, up 14 points from July.” The same poll found that the Democratic “issues of abortion, democracy, or guns dropped to 14 per cent from 26 per cent.”
The second poll was one released by the Democratic Party outlining their strategy focusing on abortion rights as the key issue that would motivate their voters to turn out and win in November. The presentation argued that when looking at each of the groups the poll identified as “key Democratic voters” (that is, young voters, educated women, and minority communities), all supported abortion rights. What the presentation ignored is that the issue of abortion is now seen as an important priority by only 5 per cent of all voters.
These polls explain why Democrats are focused on defending abortion rights and losing ground, while Republicans are railing against the increased cost of living and high crime rates. It also explains why in elections across the country, Republicans are either pulling ahead of Democrats or catching up with them in contests in which they were further behind just few months ago – Republican voters, even if they didn’t approve of their party’s nominees, have decided to come home.
This is not to say that abortion rights, the threat to democracy, or the horrible epidemic of gun violence are not critical issues facing America. What it does say is that, though important, they are not the top issues on the minds of voters. And as my father, a small grocer, would have said: “Listen to your customers or you might lose them to someone who will.” With less than one week to go and most key races too close to call, it will be a nail-biter. An unexpected and unlikely wind blowing in either direction could move the electorate one way or another. That said, at this point it seems probable that Democrats will maintain control of the Senate, while Republicans will assume leadership in the House.
With such an outcome, the good news for Democrats is that the president will continue to have his judges and other appointments confirmed. The bad news for the country is that is about all that will happen. Congress will be paralysed, and we could well see government shutdowns due to lack of agreement on funding. The far right in the Republican Party will challenge their leadership, demanding Benghazi-style hearings on any number of issues and maybe even an attempt at impeachment. It will be two nightmarish years of polarisation and dysfunction leading up to the 2024 national election – when we do it all over again.
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Mumbai Indians 213/6 (20 ov)
Royal Challengers Bangalore 167/8 (20 ov)
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nicola%20Coughlan%2C%20Luke%20Newton%2C%20Jonathan%20Bailey%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Bayern Munich 2 Borussia Monchengladbach 1
Bayern: Zirkzee (26'), Goretzka (86')
Gladbach: Pavard (37' og)
Man of the Match: Breel Embolo (Borussia Monchengladbach)
VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
The specs
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Torque: 859Nm
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On sale: Now
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ETFs explained
Exhchange traded funds are bought and sold like shares, but operate as index-tracking funds, passively following their chosen indices, such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and the FTSE All World, plus a vast range of smaller exchanges and commodities, such as gold, silver, copper sugar, coffee and oil.
ETFs have zero upfront fees and annual charges as low as 0.07 per cent a year, which means you get to keep more of your returns, as actively managed funds can charge as much as 1.5 per cent a year.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five biggest providers BlackRock’s iShares range, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs, Deutsche Bank AWM X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from Neighbourhood Watch
MATCH INFO
Borussia Dortmund 0
Bayern Munich 1 (Kimmich 43')
Man of the match: Joshua Kimmich (Bayern Munich)
Last 10 NBA champions
2017: Golden State bt Cleveland 4-1
2016: Cleveland bt Golden State 4-3
2015: Golden State bt Cleveland 4-2
2014: San Antonio bt Miami 4-1
2013: Miami bt San Antonio 4-3
2012: Miami bt Oklahoma City 4-1
2011: Dallas bt Miami 4-2
2010: Los Angeles Lakers bt Boston 4-3
2009: Los Angeles Lakers bt Orlando 4-1
2008: Boston bt Los Angeles Lakers 4-2
PROFILE OF SWVL
Started: April 2017
Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport
Size: 450 employees
Investment: approximately $80 million
Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
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APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
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Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
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In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
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ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Abu Dhabi GP schedule
Friday: First practice - 1pm; Second practice - 5pm
Saturday: Final practice - 2pm; Qualifying - 5pm
Sunday: Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (55 laps) - 5.10pm
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
MATCH INFO
World Cup 2022 qualifier
UAE v Indonesia, Thursday, 8pm
Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium, Dubai
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How it works
Each player begins with one of the great empires of history, from Julius Caesar's Rome to Ramses of Egypt, spread over Europe and the Middle East.
Round by round, the player expands their empire. The more land they have, the more money they can take from their coffers for each go.
As unruled land and soldiers are acquired, players must feed them. When a player comes up against land held by another army, they can choose to battle for supremacy.
A dice-based battle system is used and players can get the edge on their enemy with by deploying a renowned hero on the battlefield.
Players that lose battles and land will find their coffers dwindle and troops go hungry. The end goal? Global domination of course.
What are the main cyber security threats?
Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities.
Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids.
Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.
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Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Student Of The Year 2
Director: Punit Malhotra
Stars: Tiger Shroff, Tara Sutaria, Ananya Pandey, Aditya Seal
1.5 stars
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
Tuesday (UAE kick-off times)
Leicester City v Brighton (9pm)
Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United (11.15pm)
Wednesday
Manchester United v Sheffield United (9pm)
Newcastle United v Aston Villa (9pm)
Norwich City v Everton (9pm)
Wolves v Bournemouth (9pm)
Liverpool v Crystal Palace (11.15pm)
Thursday
Burnley v Watford (9pm)
Southampton v Arsenal (9pm)
Chelsea v Manchester City (11.15pm)
List of alleged parties
May 15 2020: PM and Carrie attend 'work meeting' with at
least 17 staff members
May 20 2020: PM and Carrie attend 'bring your own booze'
party
Nov 27 2020: PM gives speech at leaving do for his staff
Dec 10 2020: Staff party held by then-education secretary
Gavin Williamson
Dec 13 2020: PM and Carrie throw a flat party
Dec 14 2020: London mayor candidate Shaun Bailey holds staff party at Conservative
Party headquarters
Dec 15 2020: PM takes part in a staff quiz
Dec 18 2020: Downing Street Christmas party
