The Brexit buzz in the UK is back


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November 01, 2022

Something truly remarkable is happening in Britain. And no, I am not talking about the fact that we have had three prime ministers this year (so far). Nor am I thinking about the first person of Asian background to be prime minister of the UK, Rishi Sunak, though his rise is indeed is remarkable. Nor, even, am I thinking about the seven weeks of total madness that was the government of Liz Truss. This short-lived period of self-harm caused so much economic and political dislocation that Mr Sunak and his Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt are being forced to take another few weeks to figure out how to repair the damage caused by their own Conservative party.

These changes are indeed remarkable, yet more astonishing than all of them – and underpinning every one of them – is the fact that the B-word is back in the British political vocabulary. The B-word is Brexit. It has largely been removed from British political discussions for some time. Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson claimed Brexit was "done," and so we shouldn’t talk about it any more. The Labour leader Keir Starmer decided that re-fighting Brexit was at best a waste of time and at worst would alienate Brexit supporting Labour voters. He therefore says very little about Brexit at all.

Pro-EU campaigners march as they demand the UK reverse Brexit and rejoin the EU, in London, on October 22. EPA
Pro-EU campaigners march as they demand the UK reverse Brexit and rejoin the EU, in London, on October 22. EPA

Television news reports often discussed all kinds of problems – long queues of trucks at British ports, trade dislocation, lines of British travellers at airports, lower growth than other European countries, the weakness of the pound and price rises for imported goods – with only occasional mentions of the B-word. But now, slowly, it has begun to sink in to the British political consciousness that not only is Brexit not "done", it is also a failure at every level – an economic, political and constitutional failure, with different parts of the UK (Scotland and Northern Ireland, most obviously) resenting Brexit for the damage that has been caused, and with more to come.

In the case of Northern Ireland, the result of Brexit has already been serious. It will get worse. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which used to be Northern Ireland’s biggest party, enthusiastically supported Brexit without ever explaining what the reality of their supposedly ideal Brexit would look like. They were against every Brexit idea put to parliament, yet still remain in favour of the idea of leaving the European Union.

In the case of Northern Ireland, the result of Brexit has already been serious. It will get worse.

The result of their confusion is the Northern Ireland Protocol – which they loathe, yet their political manoeuvring helped create. The Protocol in effect treats Northern Ireland as if it were still in the EU in terms of trade. But that means a border in the Irish sea between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. The DUP have now brought down the devolved Stormont government in Northern Ireland. The result is talk of new elections, but new elections will solve nothing, except perhaps alienate voters even more. The DUP has already lost its position as the biggest party in Northern Ireland to the Irish Republican party, Sinn Fein. Historians will note that Northern Ireland was created in 1922 specifically to avoid an Irish Republican party ever holding power in Belfast.

The Northern Ireland Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris gives a statement regarding his decision to call an election, on October 28, in Belfast, Northern Ireland. Getty
The Northern Ireland Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris gives a statement regarding his decision to call an election, on October 28, in Belfast, Northern Ireland. Getty

The sad fact is that Northern Ireland has not ever appeared high on the priority list of some of our many recent post-Brexit prime ministers. Mr Johnson agreed the Northern Ireland Protocol. Ms Truss had so little time in office she did nothing of substance about the problem. And now Mr Sunak has so many other things to think about, specifically the economy, that he appears to be too busy even to attend Cop27.

But if Northern Ireland is barely on his radar, Mr Sunak is also unlikely to admit that Brexit has been a disaster, even if others are beginning to do precisely that. The Brexit silence is over. The Financial Times has released an excellent half hour video on the impact of successive government failures. As they put it: "The UK's recent disastrous "mini" Budget can trace its origins back to Britain's decision to leave the European Union. The economic costs of Brexit were masked by the Covid-19 pandemic and the crisis in Ukraine. But six years after the UK voted to leave, the effect has become clear." The FT film had three million views in a week.

A short factual BBC film on the same subject had more than a million views after a day or two. The political omerta, the silence about the core issue which has undermined four prime ministers since 2016, divided the Conservative party and led to a lack of leadership in the Labour opposition, is slowly being broken. Of course, merely talking about a problem does not solve that problem. But at least honestly recognising that Brexit is indeed a problem, and one so significant that it has now undermined a series of British governments, opens the way to minimising future damage. There is an opportunity here for Mr Starmer. In order to seize it, he has to break his own relative silence and start saying the B-word.

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T20 World Cup Qualifier

Final: Netherlands beat PNG by seven wickets

Qualified teams

1. Netherlands
2. PNG
3. Ireland
4. Namibia
5. Scotland
6. Oman

T20 World Cup 2020, Australia

Group A: Sri Lanka, PNG, Ireland, Oman
Group B: Bangladesh, Netherlands, Namibia, Scotland

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What can you do?

Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses

Seek professional advice from a legal expert

You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor

You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline

In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support

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Masters: Studying part-time for a master’s degree in international business marketing in Dubai

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Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.

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Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence

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The details

Heard It in a Past Life

Maggie Rogers

(Capital Records)

3/5

How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers

Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.

It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.

The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.

Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.

Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.

He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.

AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”

A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.

Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.

Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.

Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.

By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.

Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.

In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”

Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.

She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.

Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.

Updated: November 01, 2022, 2:00 PM