Policymakers in the Middle East and North Africa’s emerging markets are confronted with two pressing questions. The first is how to prepare their economies for an even more challenging year ahead, with an increasingly gloomy and uncertain global outlook. The second is asking what policies and reforms can they implement to help mitigate the impact on their populations at a time when their policy space has shrunk to its lowest levels, following multiple shocks, and when economic conditions could take a turn for the worse.
Mena emerging markets have shown resilience this year despite the headwinds from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Industrial production is up, employment is rising and the tourism sector is experiencing a revival following the pandemic. Nonetheless, as in other parts of the world, these countries are enduring a strong terms-of-trade shock and high inflation. Inflation is up by almost 50 per cent compared to 2021 levels and is forecast to remain in the double digits through next year. Moreover, the tightening of global financial conditions has already impacted sovereign spreads and countries’ ability to access international markets.
However, the deterioration of next year’s outlook and the accumulation of downside risks require strong and timely policy actions.
First, commodity prices are expected to stay high and volatile, raising the pressure on central banks to bring inflation under control and governments to tackle heightened food insecurity risks. In some countries, where monetary policy transmission is weak, this may require large increases in policy rates that could risk tipping some into a recession.
Second, the era of widely available and affordable external financing is coming to an end and room for policy manoeuvre is narrowing rapidly. About twice as much external public debt falls due each year on average in 2022 and 2023 as in 2019 for the region’s emerging markets. At the same time, significantly tighter global financial conditions are drying up external financing sources for these countries, raising the risk of a funding crunch.
The deterioration of next year’s outlook and the accumulation of downside risks require strong and timely policy actions
Third, what are the prospects for containing debt pressures in the region’s emerging markets when debt in terms of a percentage of GDP at the end of 2021 was already about 10 per cent higher than pre-pandemic levels and when average sovereign bond spreads (excluding Lebanon) were over 600 basis points above levels in the two years before the pandemic? With growth slowing and debt service costs rising, prospects for stabilizing debt are set to worsen.
In addition, countries’ ability to provide adequate social protection may also be constrained by higher debt service costs at a time when needs are high. Combined with a yet-unfinished energy subsidy reform in the region, there is no room to increase the current envelope for social spending to address rising social needs, which may strain social cohesion.
So how can policymakers prepare for the challenging years ahead and protect their populations?
Restoring price stability while protecting the vulnerable is the most urgent policy priority. Monetary policy will need further tightening where inflation is becoming broad-based and expectations are rising. Meanwhile, a tighter fiscal stance that includes targeted support to those in need will contribute to disinflation while strengthening social cohesion.
Countries must also act quickly to prevent a food crisis. Harvests next year and beyond could suffer if farmers do not have access to affordable fertilisers. Now is the time to scale up production, secure access to fertilisers for farmers and rebuild food reserves. Looking forward, investing in climate-resilient agriculture will help buffer countries from future climate-related shocks.
To maintain debt sustainability and build resilience, policymakers should accelerate inclusive fiscal consolidation, including by completing energy subsidy reforms while building stronger social safety nets and investing in energy efficiency. Doing so will also reduce fiscal pressures while effectively providing support to the vulnerable and easing energy dependency.
Authorities would also be well served to make meaningful improvements to the credibility and effectiveness of their policy frameworks. For monetary policy, this means strengthening central bank autonomy and increasing the transparency of monetary operations and foreign-exchange interventions. On the fiscal side, robust medium-term frameworks can bolster confidence, free up fiscal resources and strengthen fiscal sustainability. Greater transparency and accountability can improve efficiency and reduce the fiscal costs and risks associated with state-owned enterprises.
With financial stability risks set to rise as shocks continue to batter the region’s emerging markets, policymakers will also need to strengthen their macroprudential policy frameworks to improve financial sector resilience.
Finally, accelerating structural reforms has become even more urgent to mitigate potential adverse effects on growth and bolster productivity. Priorities include removing barriers to private firms, enacting reforms that reduce informality and improve tax equity, and investing in climate-resilient technology and infrastructure.
The outlook calls for audacious measures, but countries do not need to deal with these challenges alone. The IMF is a partner that stands ready to help. There is no time for complacency. Long-standing reforms are needed now.
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The specs
BMW M8 Competition Coupe
Engine 4.4-litre twin-turbo V8
Power 625hp at 6,000rpm
Torque 750Nm from 1,800-5,800rpm
Gearbox Eight-speed paddleshift auto
Acceleration 0-100kph in 3.2 sec
Top speed 305kph
Fuel economy, combined 10.6L / 100km
Price from Dh700,000 (estimate)
On sale Jan/Feb 2020
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Sanju
Produced: Vidhu Vinod Chopra, Rajkumar Hirani
Director: Rajkumar Hirani
Cast: Ranbir Kapoor, Vicky Kaushal, Paresh Rawal, Anushka Sharma, Manish’s Koirala, Dia Mirza, Sonam Kapoor, Jim Sarbh, Boman Irani
Rating: 3.5 stars
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
'Of Love & War'
Lynsey Addario, Penguin Press
Ahmed Raza
UAE cricket captain
Age: 31
Born: Sharjah
Role: Left-arm spinner
One-day internationals: 31 matches, 35 wickets, average 31.4, economy rate 3.95
T20 internationals: 41 matches, 29 wickets, average 30.3, economy rate 6.28
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
Copa del Rey
Semi-final, first leg
Barcelona 1 (Malcom 57')
Real Madrid (Vazquez 6')
Second leg, February 27
The Cairo Statement
1: Commit to countering all types of terrorism and extremism in all their manifestations
2: Denounce violence and the rhetoric of hatred
3: Adhere to the full compliance with the Riyadh accord of 2014 and the subsequent meeting and executive procedures approved in 2014 by the GCC
4: Comply with all recommendations of the Summit between the US and Muslim countries held in May 2017 in Saudi Arabia.
5: Refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of countries and of supporting rogue entities.
6: Carry out the responsibility of all the countries with the international community to counter all manifestations of extremism and terrorism that threaten international peace and security
Ain Dubai in numbers
126: The length in metres of the legs supporting the structure
1 football pitch: The length of each permanent spoke is longer than a professional soccer pitch
16 A380 Airbuses: The equivalent weight of the wheel rim.
9,000 tonnes: The amount of steel used to construct the project.
5 tonnes: The weight of each permanent spoke that is holding the wheel rim in place
192: The amount of cable wires used to create the wheel. They measure a distance of 2,4000km in total, the equivalent of the distance between Dubai and Cairo.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Squad: Majed Naser, Abdulaziz Sanqour, Walid Abbas, Khamis Esmail, Habib Fardan, Mohammed Marzouq (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai), Khalid Essa, Muhanad Salem, Mohammed Ahmed, Ismail Ahmed, Ahmed Barman, Amer Abdulrahman, Omar Abdulrahman (Al Ain), Ali Khaseif, Fares Juma, Mohammed Fawzi, Khalfan Mubarak, Mohammed Jamal, Ahmed Al Attas (Al Jazira), Ahmed Rashid, Mohammed Al Akbari (Al Wahda), Tariq Ahmed, Mahmoud Khamis, Khalifa Mubarak, Jassim Yaqoub (Al Nasr), Ali Salmeen (Al Wasl), Yousef Saeed (Sharjah), Suhail Al Nubi (Baniyas)
THE POPE'S ITINERARY
Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport
Company Profile
Founders: Tamara Hachem and Yazid Erman
Based: Dubai
Launched: September 2019
Sector: health technology
Stage: seed
Investors: Oman Technology Fund, angel investor and grants from Sharjah's Sheraa and Ma'an Abu Dhabi
The Lost Letters of William Woolf
Helen Cullen, Graydon House
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Zayed Sustainability Prize
The specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: nine-speed
Power: 542bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh848,000
On sale: now
PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
Tuesday (UAE kick-off times)
Leicester City v Brighton (9pm)
Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United (11.15pm)
Wednesday
Manchester United v Sheffield United (9pm)
Newcastle United v Aston Villa (9pm)
Norwich City v Everton (9pm)
Wolves v Bournemouth (9pm)
Liverpool v Crystal Palace (11.15pm)
Thursday
Burnley v Watford (9pm)
Southampton v Arsenal (9pm)
Chelsea v Manchester City (11.15pm)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 2.3-litre, turbo four-cylinder
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Power: 300hp
Torque: 420Nm
Price: Dh189,900
On sale: now
Mane points for safe home colouring
- Natural and grey hair takes colour differently than chemically treated hair
- Taking hair from a dark to a light colour should involve a slow transition through warmer stages of colour
- When choosing a colour (especially a lighter tone), allow for a natural lift of warmth
- Most modern hair colours are technique-based, in that they require a confident hand and taught skills
- If you decide to be brave and go for it, seek professional advice and use a semi-permanent colour
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Hales' batting career
Tests 11; Runs 573; 100s 0; 50s 5; Avg 27.38; Best 94
ODIs 58; Runs 1,957; 100s 5; 50s 11; Avg 36.24; Best 171
T20s 52; Runs 1,456; 100s 1; 50s 7; Avg 31.65; Best 116 not out
