Richard Javad Heydarian is a Manila-based academic, columnist and author
October 13, 2022
In his 1901 novel Kim, Rudyard Kipling popularised the term "Great Game", initially coined by British diplomat Arthur Conolly in the mid-19th century. By Great Game, the colonial strategists referred to a century-old struggle between the British and Russian empires for the mastery of Central Asia as part of their efforts to establish spheres of influence from what was then Persia to Afghanistan and India.
Nowadays, South-East Asia is broadly discussed in similar terms by leading strategic thinkers. Take, for instance, American sinologist David Shambaugh’s book Where Great Powers Meet: America and China in South-East Asia. Or think of veteran journalist Sebastian Strangio’s In the Dragon's Shadow: South-East Asia in the Chinese Century. The titles alone say it all.
By and large, in mainstream punditry and media coverage, the whole region tends to be portrayed as, first and foremost, a strategic battlefield, if not a playground, for superpowers. In popular imagination, South-East Asia is either a tropical paradise, thanks to the majestic beaches from Palawan to Phuket and Bali, or a collection of poor, hot megacities with countless slum-dwellers. The writer Elizabeth Pisani memorably lamented the status of Indonesia, the region’s largest nation, as the “biggest invisible thing on Earth”.
A quiet main street in Indonesia's resort island of Bali last year, as social restrictions hit the island's tourism industry. AFP
Upon closer examination, however, it is clear that South-East Asia is fast emerging as arguably the most dynamic and exciting place in the 21st century. Home to almost 700 million people, and boasting a combined gross domestic product of almost $4 trillion, the region is probably where the future of geopolitical power and technological innovation could be determined. According to an Asian Development Bank (ADB) report, released in September, South-East Asian nations are set to surpass China as the fastest-growing major economies in Asia, for the first time in three decades.
Thanks to its youthful and skilled workforce, and increasingly stable political environment, the region has also emerged as a top investment destination for the likes of Apple, the world’s most valuable company, and Taiwan, the world’s largest chip-maker. Not to mention the region’s great cuisines and immense cultural diversity. As Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan recently put it: “Take South-East Asia seriously on our own merits and not just look at us in terms of the great big power competition.”
Long before China became the world’s dominant manufacturing power, thanks to Deng Xiaoping’s economic liberalisation policies, South-East Asia was home to "tiger cub" economies of Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. Cosmopolitan and well-versed in Anglo-American commercial culture, these countries became a prime destination for tourism as well as foreign investment.
The Gardens By The Bay and Marina Bay Sands in Singapore. Bloomberg
In the mid-1960s, ADB was established in Manila, which managed to beat rivals in North-East Asia (Seoul) and the Middle East (Tehran), thanks to the Philippines’ rapidly growing economy. Meanwhile, Singapore, thanks to its late prime minister, Lee Kuan Yew, managed to reclaim its historical role as a global entrepot. No less than Xiaoping drew inspiration from Singapore’s remarkable success ahead of his historic decision to open up the Asian behemoth to global investment.
Meanwhile, Malaysia, Indonesia and, particularly, Thailand forged ahead with a series of proactive trade and industrial policies, which boosted domestic manufacturing. Japan, then Asia’s economic powerhouse, became a major source of manufacturing investments and sophisticated technology, thus incorporating South-East Asian nations into a global supply chain.
In the Philippines, the fintech industry is expected to reach $44 billion in the coming years
Two major events, however, upended the region’s place in the global economic pecking order.
First, the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis hammered Thailand and much of the region’s major economies, severely undermining South-East Asia’s economic momentum. Heavy reliance on real estate and services sectors made regional states particularly vulnerable to financial speculation and oligopolistic practices.
Second, Beijing, still a relatively insulated economy in the 1990s, not only emerged unscathed from the financial mayhem in its neighbourhood, but also managed to press ahead with a broadly successful industrialisation strategy. And just as China began to absorb the bulk of global manufacturing investments, South-East Asian nations began to experience a devastating period of deindustrialisation, which undermined prospects for inclusive development.
Residents with masks at a bus station in Beijing, on October 12. Beijing has tightened Covid-19 measures as the country prepares for the 20th national congress where Xi Jinping is expected to win his unprecedented third term. EPA
Soon, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines ended up as sources of raw materials and precious minerals for China. Although bilateral trade continued to boom, the terms of trade largely favoured an industrialising China. Thus, South-East Asia became the economic "periphery" to Asia’s new economic "core".
To put things into perspective, Indonesia’s GDP per capita was as high as 87 per cent of China's in 2000. Two decades later, it was as low as 37 per cent. In Thailand, the region’s manufacturing hub, the number fell from 164 per cent to 61 per cent over the same period.
In many ways, South-East Asia began to mirror growing inequality between North America and Latin America on the other side of the Pacific Ocean. But after decades of relatively successful integration under the aegis of the Association of South-East Asian Nations, which brought about unprecedented peace and stability across the region, it is now primed to take-off for three major reasons.
A banner for the G20 Bali Summit next month installed in Nusa Dua, the venue, in Bali, Indonesia. Bloomberg
To begin with, China is now experiencing a great deceleration, thanks to a combination of structural and geopolitical factors.
Rapidly rising labour costs and extended lockdowns have dissipated China’s competitive edge, making it less pivotal to regional growth dynamics. Just before the pandemic, China accounted for up to one third of global GDP growth, a number that has now fallen to about 25 per cent. Exports as a share of China’s GDP have fallen from above 35 per cent in the 2000s to below 20 per cent today.
On top of this, western nations have begun a process of "decoupling" – or, as US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen put it, “friend-shoring” – in order to reduce their supply-chain reliance on China amid a prolonged geopolitical showdown. A survey by the US-China Business Council found out that more than half of American companies interviewed either cancelled or delayed investment plans in China.
According to a Bloomberg Intelligence analysis, the West’s tech-industry dependence on China is likely to come down by 20-40 per cent “in most cases” within a decade. With China moving inward, due to geopolitical tensions with the West and a nationalist economic policy at home, investors are looking for alternative destinations, with the likes of Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand emerging as major candidates.
Second, South-East Asia is experiencing its own digital economy boom, a process accelerated by Covid-19 lockdowns in recent years. In places such as Indonesia, revenue from digital commerce and related industries more than tripled as a share of GDP in recent years. From Indonesia to Singapore, a whole host of “unicorns”, from Gojek to Grab, have transformed the regional economic landscape.
Motorists on their morning commutes in Jakarta. AFP
In the Philippines, the fintech industry is expected to reach $44 billion in the coming years, thanks to the transformative capacity of mobile internet and innovations in financial industries. A new generation of western-educated tech titans coupled with a booming middle class will soon turn the region into a global fintech hub. And deeper economic integration will only further accelerate the spread of technology and wealth across South-East Asia.
Finally, the region’s competitive edge over its North-East Asian counterparts is demographics. While China, as in Japan and South Korea, is grappling with a shrinking population, South-East Asian countries such as the Philippines continue to enjoy robust population growth. The median age in a majority of states is below 30 years old. As emerging market gurus such as Ruchir Sharma have argued, demographics have historically been the greatest predictor of long-term growth prospects.
After centuries of living in the shadow of empires and larger civilisations, South-East Asia’s moment of truth may have finally arrived. The 21st century represents a historic opportunity for the region to finally claim its place of pride on the global stage.
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
An exchange traded fund is a type of investment fund that can be traded quickly and easily, just like stocks and shares. They come with no upfront costs aside from your brokerage's dealing charges and annual fees, which are far lower than on traditional mutual investment funds. Charges are as low as 0.03 per cent on one of the very cheapest (and most popular), Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, with the maximum around 0.75 per cent.
There is no fund manager deciding which stocks and other assets to invest in, instead they passively track their chosen index, country, region or commodity, regardless of whether it goes up or down.
The first ETF was launched as recently as 1993, but the sector boasted $5.78 billion in assets under management at the end of September as inflows hit record highs, according to the latest figures from ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five largest providers BlackRock’s iShares, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisers, Deutsche Bank X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
While the best-known track major indices such as MSCI World, the S&P 500 and FTSE 100, you can also invest in specific countries or regions, large, medium or small companies, government bonds, gold, crude oil, cocoa, water, carbon, cattle, corn futures, currency shifts or even a stock market crash.
Top 10 most polluted cities
Bhiwadi, India
Ghaziabad, India
Hotan, China
Delhi, India
Jaunpur, India
Faisalabad, Pakistan
Noida, India
Bahawalpur, Pakistan
Peshawar, Pakistan
Bagpat, India
Where to buy
Limited-edition art prints of The Sofa Series: Sultani can be acquired from Reem El Mutwalli at www.reemelmutwalli.com
Buy farm-fresh food
The UAE is stepping up its game when it comes to platforms for local farms to show off and sell their produce.
In Dubai, visit Emirati Farmers Souq at The Pointe every Saturday from 8am to 2pm, which has produce from Al Ammar Farm, Omar Al Katri Farm, Hikarivege Vegetables, Rashed Farms and Al Khaleej Honey Trading, among others.
In Sharjah, the Aljada residential community will launch a new outdoor farmers’ market every Friday starting this weekend. Manbat will be held from 3pm to 8pm, and will host 30 farmers, local home-grown entrepreneurs and food stalls from the teams behind Badia Farms; Emirates Hydroponics Farms; Modern Organic Farm; Revolution Real; Astraea Farms; and Al Khaleej Food.
In Abu Dhabi, order farm produce from Food Crowd, an online grocery platform that supplies fresh and organic ingredients directly from farms such as Emirates Bio Farm, TFC, Armela Farms and mother company Al Dahra.
