In less than a month, Israel will hold its fifth national election in four years. The Israeli media is filled with endless commentary, reports of polls showing who’s up and who’s down, early finger-pointing assessing blame, and through it all, a pervasive sense of gloom acknowledging that whatever the vote tally, the future will be no brighter or more certain than the present.
This election, like those that preceded it, is mainly about one big concern: will Benjamin Netanyahu return as the head of government? There are other issues, to be sure, like whether the hardline ultra-religious parties will hold sway over a range of policies that give their sect privileges in the implementation of laws that affect their followers and the rights of Jews who are not ultra-Orthodox, or whether Mr Netanyahu will be held accountable in the criminal proceedings against him that have been dragging on in court awaiting the outcome of the election. But for a majority of Israeli voters and, it appears, for US policymakers, the central issue being decided on November 1 is: “Will the future of Israel be one with or without Mr Netanyahu?”
As the weekly polls demonstrate, the outcome of this election will be as muddy as the last four. The coalition of parties supporting Mr Netanyahu could reach the magic number of 61 Knesset seats (a simple majority) or they may secure only 59 or 60 seats bringing paralysis and calls for a sixth election. There are no current polls that give a clear 61 seats to the not-Netanyahu crowd.
The only way that either the “with” or “without” bloc could rise comfortably above 61 would be with the inclusion of an Arab party. That, however, appears unlikely. Having denounced the current “Change government” for including a conservative Arab party in its coalition (despite having courted them himself), it’s unlikely that Mr Netanyahu would include them now. The same holds true for the anti-Netanyahu coalition, with one of the major parties in that camp having expressed deep reservations about serving in another coalition government that was dependent on Arab votes.
As a result, even if the Netanyahu coalition receives 59 seats and the opposition wins just 56 seats and is in a position to win control of government with even the passive support of an Arab party, it’s likely that such a government will be relentlessly hounded by Mr Netanyahu as a “minority” (meaning that it was made up of a minority of Jews) government – in the same way that he and Ariel Sharon hounded the government of Yitzhak Rabin in the 1990s.
If Netanyahu had been the head of government, the US might have been inclined to publicly criticise his actions
In the lead-up to the election there was considerable jockeying – splitting and combining – that took place amongst the parties on both the left and right. Once seen as a rising star on the right, Ayelet Shaked formed a new party and immediately plummeted into oblivion.
Further to the right, the ultra-nationalist, racist Kahanist party (that calls for the exclusion of both Palestinian citizens of Israel and the West Bank) has been catapulted into a dominant role in the Netanyahu camp and is now expected to win as many as 12 seats.
On the Arab side, splits in the once-unified Joint Arab List that won 15 seats a few years back, will probably reduce the number of seats Arabs will win to eight or thereabouts – largely because of Arab voters having lost confidence in the Israeli system. It has been especially irritating to read Israeli commentators point to this decline in Arab clout as a reason Mr Netanyahu might win the election. A clear example of “blaming the victims”.
In an article I wrote before the last Israeli election, just 19 months ago, I expressed the concern that ousting Mr Netanyahu would not only fail to improve Palestinian lives and rights, but also might make them worse for two reasons.
In the first place, I feared that because it was based on a fragile coalition, the “Change government” would feel the need to protect its right flank by demonstrating both toughness vis-a-vis Palestinians and support for the settlement enterprise. At the same time, precisely because it was an anti-Netanyahu coalition that included parties from the centre and right and even a conservative Arab party, the “Change government” would be heralded by liberals in the US who would give it licence to pursue whatever policies it needed to remain in power. This is exactly what happened.
The “Change government” followed the very same policies as the one that preceded it. In some cases, they were worse. Settlements grew and expanded; land confiscations continued, as did the release of “state lands” for the exclusive use of settlers; repression intensified, including the use of deadly force and mass arrests; provocations by settlers in Jerusalem and the West Bank were largely met with a blind eye; and policies designed to weaken the Palestinian Authority continued to be standard operating procedure.
If anything changed, it was the silence of the US in response to these “Change government” behaviours. It appears that the guiding principle of US policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian arena has been pathetically reduced to doing nothing that will damage the chances of the anti-Netanyahu forces staying in power and now winning in November – with Palestinians paying a steep price in life and liberty.
What’s most troubling is that if Netanyahu had been the head of government, the US might have been inclined to publicly criticise his actions. But the “Change” crowd received nary a slap on the wrist, except for an occasional expression of US “concern”.
So here we are a year and a half later, with yet another Israeli election with the same concerns and, most likely, the same outcome. The only big issue, as before, will be whether Mr Netanyahu is returned as the head of government. Precisely because it might be the only way to rip off the veneer of “Change” and force the US liberal establishment to confront the horrifying reality of Israeli policies toward Palestinians and act against them, I’m forced to hope for a Netanyahu win.
Western Region Asia Cup T20 Qualifier
Sun Feb 23 – Thu Feb 27, Al Amerat, Oman
The two finalists advance to the Asia qualifier in Malaysia in August
Group A
Bahrain, Maldives, Oman, Qatar
Group B
UAE, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia
'The Woman in the House Across the Street from the Girl in the Window'
Director:Michael Lehmann
Stars:Kristen Bell
Rating: 1/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Company name: Play:Date
Launched: March 2017 on UAE Mother’s Day
Founder: Shamim Kassibawi
Based: Dubai with operations in the UAE and US
Sector: Tech
Size: 20 employees
Stage of funding: Seed
Investors: Three founders (two silent co-founders) and one venture capital fund
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
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Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
BULKWHIZ PROFILE
Date started: February 2017
Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce
Size: 50 employees
Funding: approximately $6m
Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait
hall of shame
SUNDERLAND 2002-03
No one has ended a Premier League season quite like Sunderland. They lost each of their final 15 games, taking no points after January. They ended up with 19 in total, sacking managers Peter Reid and Howard Wilkinson and losing 3-1 to Charlton when they scored three own goals in eight minutes.
SUNDERLAND 2005-06
Until Derby came along, Sunderland’s total of 15 points was the Premier League’s record low. They made it until May and their final home game before winning at the Stadium of Light while they lost a joint record 29 of their 38 league games.
HUDDERSFIELD 2018-19
Joined Derby as the only team to be relegated in March. No striker scored until January, while only two players got more assists than goalkeeper Jonas Lossl. The mid-season appointment Jan Siewert was to end his time as Huddersfield manager with a 5.3 per cent win rate.
ASTON VILLA 2015-16
Perhaps the most inexplicably bad season, considering they signed Idrissa Gueye and Adama Traore and still only got 17 points. Villa won their first league game, but none of the next 19. They ended an abominable campaign by taking one point from the last 39 available.
FULHAM 2018-19
Terrible in different ways. Fulham’s total of 26 points is not among the lowest ever but they contrived to get relegated after spending over £100 million (Dh457m) in the transfer market. Much of it went on defenders but they only kept two clean sheets in their first 33 games.
LA LIGA: Sporting Gijon, 13 points in 1997-98.
BUNDESLIGA: Tasmania Berlin, 10 points in 1965-66
UAE - India ties
The UAE is India’s third-largest trade partner after the US and China
Annual bilateral trade between India and the UAE has crossed US$ 60 billion
The UAE is the fourth-largest exporter of crude oil for India
Indians comprise the largest community with 3.3 million residents in the UAE
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi first visited the UAE in August 2015
His visit on August 23-24 will be the third in four years
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, visited India in February 2016
Sheikh Mohamed was the chief guest at India’s Republic Day celebrations in January 2017
Modi will visit Bahrain on August 24-25
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The biog:
Languages: Arabic, Farsi, Hindi, basic Russian
Favourite food: Pizza
Best food on the road: rice
Favourite colour: silver
Favourite bike: Gold Wing, Honda
Favourite biking destination: Canada
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More on animal trafficking
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
The team
Videographer: Jear Velasquez
Photography: Romeo Perez
Fashion director: Sarah Maisey
Make-up: Gulum Erzincan at Art Factory
Models: Meti and Clinton at MMG
Video assistant: Zanong Maget
Social media: Fatima Al Mahmoud
Zayed Sustainability Prize
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