The distinction between security and resilience is often thought of as two sides of the same wonkish coin. For the next British prime minister, who will be confirmed by today’s leadership election results, it is one that is absolutely vital to the country’s future, as well as how history judges her or his time at the helm.
The headlines have been all about what efforts Liz Truss will make to bolster the resilience of the British people to cope with the energy crisis and the enormous squeeze on living standards.
The equally big and costly challenge will be on the UK to repair its security and defence gap. That will mean big changes in defence spending but also shifts in the policy direction that has been in place since the time of Tony Blair, or even John Major.
Boris Johnson’s last week in office saw the spotlight fall on one of the big commitments that the new government must follow through with and even double down on.
That is the Aukus pact that would see the nuclear umbrella extended through the US and UK to Australia. The submarine initiative is much bigger than a mere deal to supply undersea defence capabilities to a long-standing ally. It is a reorientation of a defensive alliance that stretches from the North Atlantic to the South Pacific with an important focus on China.
There is little time for the new British leader to dither on making security commitments
The success or failure of the arrangement is threatened by constraints in the US capacity to both overhaul its own submarine fleet and supply the allies with all the equipment to make Aukus a success. This has put the UK in the driver’s seat of the deal – which explains Mr Johnson’s trip last week to showcase the Astute-class submarine in the presence of Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles. For the first time, Australian navy personnel will join the UK nuclear fleet crews and co-train with them.
With a timeframe stretching all the way to the 2040s, Australia is planning to building its own eight nuclear-powered submarines using technology supplied by both the UK and US.
The Aukus alliance was sealed at the expense of an Australian deal with France, and there was some schadenfreude among French commentators last week when a US admiral warned that Washington might not be able to deliver on its commitments. As the Los Angeles-class and the Ohio-class submarines retire, US yards are stretched. With some Australians calling for a stop-gap, the expansion of the UK yards' output is the obvious bridge to the future.
This is not, however, a simple matter of Australia directing some orders to the UK. An expansion of UK defence resources would be needed to facilitate the shift.
UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace commissioned a six-month review into the submarine balance in the UK’s navy, indicating he believes that there is a greater role for undersea defences. He described the decision as vitally important when submarines “may well be the deciding factor in future conflict”.
An instantly influential report from the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) think tank on Friday revealed that the UK is already planning to spend an extra £2 billion ($2.30bn) annually on submarine capabilities and expansion. But if Mr Wallace is correct, the figure will need to be much higher. The development of new-generation submarines and a probable increase of the UK fleet alone from seven to 10 vessels are set to push national defence spending above 2.5 per cent of GDP.
This will be quite a commitment for London to put its shoulder behind. Rusi projects that, for the UK to move up to 3 per cent spending on GDP, the government would have to find another £150bn. It also finds that, if the extra outlay was funded from tax increases, key income taxes would need to rise by 5 pence in the pound.
Rusi, which acts as an adjunct of the security establishment in London, sketches out other important implications of the current thinking – such as a rise in the military forces numbers by about 40,000 personnel, at a time when soaring inflation has cost implications. Add in all the other pressures, such as a new generation of the nuclear deterrent itself, ballistic missile improvements and the challenges of developing space capabilities, and that is a formidable outlay.
The war in Ukraine and pressures from rising powers such as China mean that there is little time for the new British leader to dither on making these commitments. If anything, the scale of the energy emergency that has unfolded in Europe is proof that the defence demands are tied to the inflation crisis. A short-term squeeze and the high-risk premium hanging over the pound sterling complicate the picture yet further.
It is a test few would envy for the new prime minister, who will take up the reins after the traditional meeting with Queen Elizabeth tomorrow.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
LIKELY TEAMS
South Africa
Faf du Plessis (captain), Dean Elgar, Aiden Markram, Hashim Amla, AB de Villiers, Quinton de Kock (wkt), Vernon Philander, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Morne Morkel, Lungi Ngidi.
India (from)
Virat Kohli (captain), Murali Vijay, Lokesh Rahul, Cheteshwar Pujara, Rohit Sharma, Ajinkya Rahane, Hardik Pandya, Dinesh Karthik (wkt), Ravichandran Ashwin, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Ishant Sharma, Mohammad Shami, Jasprit Bumrah.
Voices: How A Great Singer Can Change Your Life
Nick Coleman
Jonathan Cape
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
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The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 640hp
Torque: 760nm
On sale: 2026
Price: Not announced yet
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Ipaf in numbers
Established: 2008
Prize money: $50,000 (Dh183,650) for winners and $10,000 for those on the shortlist.
Winning novels: 13
Shortlisted novels: 66
Longlisted novels: 111
Total number of novels submitted: 1,780
Novels translated internationally: 66
Ferrari
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UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
AUSTRALIA SQUAD
Aaron Finch, Matt Renshaw, Brendan Doggett, Michael Neser, Usman Khawaja, Shaun Marsh, Mitchell Marsh, Tim Paine (captain), Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Jon Holland, Ashton Agar, Mitchell Starc, Peter Siddle
Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
TEACHERS' PAY - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
The specs: 2017 Maserati Quattroporte
Price, base / as tested Dh389,000 / Dh559,000
Engine 3.0L twin-turbo V8
Transmission Eight-speed automatic
Power 530hp @ 6,800rpm
Torque 650Nm @ 2,000 rpm
Fuel economy, combined 10.7L / 100km
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
ICC Awards for 2021
MEN
Cricketer of the Year – Shaheen Afridi (Pakistan)
T20 Cricketer of the Year – Mohammad Rizwan (Pakistan)
ODI Cricketer of the Year – Babar Azam (Pakistan)
Test Cricketer of the Year – Joe Root (England)
WOMEN
Cricketer of the Year – Smriti Mandhana (India)
ODI Cricketer of the Year – Lizelle Lee (South Africa)
T20 Cricketer of the Year – Tammy Beaumont (England)
The biog
Hometown: Cairo
Age: 37
Favourite TV series: The Handmaid’s Tale, Black Mirror
Favourite anime series: Death Note, One Piece and Hellsing
Favourite book: Designing Brand Identity, Fifth Edition
Disability on screen
Empire — neuromuscular disease myasthenia gravis; bipolar disorder; post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)
Rosewood and Transparent — heart issues
24: Legacy — PTSD;
Superstore and NCIS: New Orleans — wheelchair-bound
Taken and This Is Us — cancer
Trial & Error — cognitive disorder prosopagnosia (facial blindness and dyslexia)
Grey’s Anatomy — prosthetic leg
Scorpion — obsessive compulsive disorder and anxiety
Switched at Birth — deafness
One Mississippi, Wentworth and Transparent — double mastectomy
Dragons — double amputee
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Director: Paul Weitz
Stars: Kevin Hart
3/5 stars
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The Bio
Hometown: Bogota, Colombia
Favourite place to relax in UAE: the desert around Al Mleiha in Sharjah or the eastern mangroves in Abu Dhabi
The one book everyone should read: 100 Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez. It will make your mind fly
Favourite documentary: Chasing Coral by Jeff Orlowski. It's a good reality check about one of the most valued ecosystems for humanity
The Bio
Amal likes watching Japanese animation movies and Manga - her favourite is The Ancient Magus Bride
She is the eldest of 11 children, and has four brothers and six sisters.
Her dream is to meet with all of her friends online from around the world who supported her work throughout the years
Her favourite meal is pizza and stuffed vine leaves
She ams to improve her English and learn Japanese, which many animated programmes originate in
21 Lessons for the 21st Century
Yuval Noah Harari, Jonathan Cape
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