Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
August 28, 2022
Amid the ongoing negotiations between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (plus Germany) to limit Tehran's nuclear weapons programme, a pertinent question continues to be asked. It is whether a "bad deal" with loopholes is better or worse than a "no deal" scenario that could lead to war, as Iran's adversaries including Israel seek to destroy its nuclear facilities.
For now, an agreement to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the original nuclear deal signed between the same parties in 2015 before the US withdrew from it three years later – is likelier to happen than not. That's because, at this stage, none of the participants in the talks want a war. Even inside Iran and Israel, which is not a signatory of the JCPOA, there would be those who would rather wage proxy wars against each other, with countries such as Lebanon serving as theatres, than have a direct confrontation that could lead to loss of lives in their own countries.
Despite the rising public opposition to a possible "bad deal" in Israel, its leadership is aware that if the talks fail, it will not be able to stop Iran’s nuclear programme through unilateral military strikes. A military solution to Tehran's nuclear threat will require US involvement.
But the US doesn't a war, as this would probably mean involving its own personnel and resources, which it doesn't want to right now. There is also the rationale in the West that by lifting sanctions against Tehran – a condition for the Iranians to sign a deal – European governments can then avail of its energy as an alternative to Russian oil and gas.
Domestic politics is also fuelling the Biden administration's push for a deal. By returning to the JCPOA or securing a better deal, the Democrats can revive a signature aspect of former president Barack Obama's legacy, and at the same time reverse Donald Trump's decision to pull the US out of it.
There is little doubt that the non-nuclear dimension of the threat Iran poses to regional security is very strong
Israel has hinted that it won't commit to a deal it doesn’t approve of. By stating so, it will hope to put pressure for an agreement that imposes constraints on Tehran’s nuclear programme. It will also, in the process, maintain its freedom to conduct military operations if it deems them to be necessary. But those who insist that a direct war between Israel and Iran would resolve matters or help reduce Iran's influence in Lebanon and Syria are delusional.
Israel’s interests, after all, are limited to keeping its borders with Lebanon and Syria calm, which is plausible only if Iran agrees to rein in Hezbollah, its proxy in Lebanon. Tehran will need to provide a guarantee to Israel that Hezbollah’s weapons will not be used across the border, effectively neutralising the group's rocket arsenal. By doing so, Iran will be forced to shelve its so-called resistance against Israel, with Hezbollah doing little more than continuing its rhetorical resistance designed to dominate Lebanese politics.
There two views on a possible Israel-Iran deal. One view is that it would serve Lebanon’s interests, as it would avert a war that could destroy the country and devastate its people. The other view is that such a deal would benefit Israel and Iran but harm Lebanon, as it would effectively place the country under the tutelage of Hezbollah – and by extension, Iran.
Diehard optimists would like to see a broader rapprochement that creates a new, positive climate for further co-operation; that it would help to demarcate a Lebanese-Israeli maritime border; that it would force the Iranian regime to rein in its hardliners, as it prioritises economic recovery; and that it would eventually reintegrate Iran into the global economy.
However, left to its own devices, the Iranian regime will not shed its skin or give up its expansionist appetite. The P5+1, who will broadly support an Israel-Iran deal, must put Tehran under serious pressure, with the help of a carrot-and-stick approach, forcing to loosen its regional domination.
There is little doubt that the non-nuclear dimension of the threat Iran poses to regional security is very strong. This explains the backroom negotiations, parallel to the nuclear talks, that have been under way for the past year or so, not only between Israel and Iran, but also between the Gulf states and Iran.
Hezbollah supporters attend a televised speech by the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah in the Janta region in Lebanon's east this month. AFP
Circling back to the nuclear talks, it is clear that international monitoring of Iran's nuclear facilities remains an obstacle to an agreement, unless its regime drops its insistence on limited oversight by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Tehran continues to oppose full scrutiny and strict monitoring mechanisms, because it is already at the stage of enriching weapons-grade uranium. The Biden administration, on the other hand, knows that it cannot compromise on this aspect, not only because of Israeli opposition but also opposition within American domestic politics, particularly in the US Congress.
Assuming that this issue is sorted and an agreement is secured, the US must still know that if sanctions were to be lifted against Iran, it should not end up financing the regime's covert nuclear agenda. Pumping billions into its coffers could accelerate its shadowy programme that will obviously not be subject to monitoring mechanisms.
Washington, meanwhile, will be mindful that in the course of any strategic short-sightedness on its part, an empowered Iran could further cleave to China and Russia, its strategic partners. Russia, in particular, could benefit by importing more Iranian drones for its war in Ukraine, preparing advanced weapons deals with Iran, and possibly working with Tehran to circumvent western sanctions on its oil and gas.
It’s a complicated business. And how this all pans out for the region and the wider world, we will know sooner than later, as countries race towards securing a nuclear deal, as well as separate gentlemen's agreements, with Iran.
What is Folia?
Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed bin Talal's new plant-based menu will launch at Four Seasons hotels in Dubai this November. A desire to cater to people looking for clean, healthy meals beyond green salad is what inspired Prince Khaled and American celebrity chef Matthew Kenney to create Folia. The word means "from the leaves" in Latin, and the exclusive menu offers fine plant-based cuisine across Four Seasons properties in Los Angeles, Bahrain and, soon, Dubai.
Kenney specialises in vegan cuisine and is the founder of Plant Food Wine and 20 other restaurants worldwide. "I’ve always appreciated Matthew’s work," says the Saudi royal. "He has a singular culinary talent and his approach to plant-based dining is prescient and unrivalled. I was a fan of his long before we established our professional relationship."
Folia first launched at The Four Seasons Hotel Los Angeles at Beverly Hills in July 2018. It is available at the poolside Cabana Restaurant and for in-room dining across the property, as well as in its private event space. The food is vibrant and colourful, full of fresh dishes such as the hearts of palm ceviche with California fruit, vegetables and edible flowers; green hearb tacos filled with roasted squash and king oyster barbacoa; and a savoury coconut cream pie with macadamia crust.
In March 2019, the Folia menu reached Gulf shores, as it was introduced at the Four Seasons Hotel Bahrain Bay, where it is served at the Bay View Lounge. Next, on Tuesday, November 1 – also known as World Vegan Day – it will come to the UAE, to the Four Seasons Resort Dubai at Jumeirah Beach and the Four Seasons DIFC, both properties Prince Khaled has spent "considerable time at and love".
There are also plans to take Folia to several more locations throughout the Middle East and Europe.
While health-conscious diners will be attracted to the concept, Prince Khaled is careful to stress Folia is "not meant for a specific subset of customers. It is meant for everyone who wants a culinary experience without the negative impact that eating out so often comes with."
The specs: 2018 Nissan Altima
Price, base / as tested: Dh78,000 / Dh97,650
Engine: 2.5-litre in-line four-cylinder
Power: 182hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 244Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Continuously variable tranmission
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.6L / 100km
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), EsekaiaDranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), JaenBotes (Exiles), KristianStinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), EmosiVacanau (Harlequins), NikoVolavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), ThinusSteyn (Exiles)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Sara El Bakkali v Anisha Kadka (Lightweight, female)
Mohammed Adil Al Debi v Moaz Abdelgawad (Bantamweight)
Amir Boureslan v Mahmoud Zanouny (Welterweight)
Abrorbek Madaminbekov v Mohammed Al Katheeri (Featherweight)
Ibrahem Bilal v Emad Arafa (Super featherweight)
Ahmed Abdolaziz v Imad Essassi (Middleweight)
Milena Martinou v Ilham Bourakkadi (Bantamweight, female)
Noureddine El Agouti v Mohamed Mardi (Welterweight)
Nabil Ouach v Ymad Atrous (Middleweight)
Nouredin Samir v Zainalabid Dadachev (Lightweight)
Marlon Ribeiro v Mehdi Oubahammou (Welterweight)
Brad Stanton v Mohamed El Boukhari (Super welterweight
Review: Tomb Raider
Dir: Roar Uthaug
Starring: Alicia Vikander, Dominic West, Daniel Wu, Walter Goggins
two stars
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Poland Statement
All people fleeing from Ukraine before the armed conflict are allowed to enter Poland. Our country shelters every person whose life is in danger - regardless of their nationality.
The dominant group of refugees in Poland are citizens of Ukraine, but among the people checked by the Border Guard are also citizens of the USA, Nigeria, India, Georgia and other countries.
All persons admitted to Poland are verified by the Border Guard. In relation to those who are in doubt, e.g. do not have documents, Border Guard officers apply appropriate checking procedures.
No person who has received refuge in Poland will be sent back to a country torn by war.
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
Mane points for safe home colouring
Natural and grey hair takes colour differently than chemically treated hair
Taking hair from a dark to a light colour should involve a slow transition through warmer stages of colour
When choosing a colour (especially a lighter tone), allow for a natural lift of warmth
Most modern hair colours are technique-based, in that they require a confident hand and taught skills
If you decide to be brave and go for it, seek professional advice and use a semi-permanent colour
Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
