Recently, Hezbollah’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, made it clear that if Israel began drilling in its offshore Karish gas field, without Lebanon first securing what he deemed to be its own “rights” to gas, the consequences could be war. Not long before his comments, in early July, Hezbollah flew several drones over Karish.
While many believe that Nasrallah does not intend to carry out his threat of war at a time of deep economic crisis in Lebanon, there was no intention to go to war in summer 2006 either, the last time Israel and Hezbollah fought a major conflict. Often, the need to avoid being discredited by failing to act is enough of a motive to spark a conflagration.
However, let’s assume that a war does occur, can Hezbollah assume that the aftermath will be similar to what happened in 2006? At the time, the party had accused its domestic political opponents, joined in what was known as the March 14 coalition, of having betrayed Hezbollah by trying to exploit the war to contain the party’s actions.
Once the war ended, Hezbollah mobilised its supporters to organise a months-long sit-in near the prime minister’s office and force a change of government that would give it veto power over cabinet decisions. Among the things the party and its allies sought to block was a UN plan to set up a tribunal to try suspects involved in the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005. Hezbollah and Syria were alleged to have played a role in the crime.
The standoff continued until May 2008, when armed clashes between the two sides led to what is known as the Doha Accord, which brought a new president to office. For several years after that, the situation returned to relative normality.
It is doubtful that a similar such situation could be replicated after any future war. The reasons for this are many, including Israeli intentions, the mood in Lebanon at a time of economic breakdown and the durability of Lebanon’s social contract.
Israel has made it amply clear that a war in Lebanon will lead to the widespread destruction of the country. Unlike 2006, when the US urged the Israelis not to obliterate Lebanon, fearing this would undermine the government of then prime minister Fouad Siniora, such inhibitions are unlikely in a new conflict. On the contrary, with many countries viewing Hezbollah as a destabilising force in the region, there may be implicit regional approval for a devastating response.
With Lebanon already facing one of the worst economic crises in recent history, the terrible consequences of a war with Israel could send the country over the edge. A bankrupt country would be unable to repair damaged infrastructure or homes, so Lebanon could end up becoming a larger version of Gaza, fuelling popular anger.
In the Shiite community, which has remained loyal to Hezbollah through thick and thin, the reaction would also be very unpredictable. In 2006, there was money, particularly Qatari money, to immediately start rebuilding destroyed Shiite villages and neighbourhoods. Today, little outside assistance would be forthcoming to help the community. Parliamentary elections this year showed there was underlying disgruntlement because of the economy. While Hezbollah and its allies in the Amal movement won all their seats, the number of votes in their favour went down. Independent candidates, although not Shiite, also made breakthroughs in Hezbollah and Amal-dominated districts.
The temper in Lebanon has also changed. An increasing number of Lebanese are fed up with the path down which Hezbollah is leading their country. No one wants to pay a price for the party’s alliance with Iran. And increasingly, on the ground, communities have shown a willingness to resist or take up arms against Hezbollah, as happened last year in Khaldeh, the Druze village of Shuwayya, and later in Ain Al Remmaneh.
On the back of a ruinous war, resentment will be generalised and this trend will only grow. Almost certainly, there will be calls from Hezbollah’s political foes to renegotiate the relationship between the party and the state, because Lebanon cannot afford to remain a hostage to Hezbollah’s and Iran’s agenda.
If Hezbollah disagrees and tries to escalate against its critics, a number of things may happen. Lebanon could enter into open conflict, or the party’s opponents could themselves escalate and argue that if Hezbollah refuses to integrate into the state, then the only option is separation and negotiations over a new political arrangement in Lebanon.
What makes this possible is that Lebanon’s political system no longer works, and the social contract that has governed the country since the end of the civil war in 1990 is hopelessly dysfunctional in the shadow of a party that has hijacked the state. Hezbollah, even if it is strong militarily, could not resolve such a crisis with its weapons. If its adversaries are united, the party may be forced to re-evaluate its national role.
This would create a dilemma. Hezbollah's refusal to go down this path would heighten the risk of civil war, while any agreement to do so would undermine its mission on Iran’s behalf. The party's inability to resolve this dilemma may explain why war with Israel is unlikely, but sooner or later Hezbollah will have to resolve its problems with the rest of Lebanon.
if you go
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Seoul from Dh3,775 return, including taxes
The package
Ski Safari offers a seven-night ski package to Korea, including five nights at the Dragon Valley Hotel in Yongpyong and two nights at Seoul CenterMark hotel, from £720 (Dh3,488) per person, including transfers, based on two travelling in January
The info
Visit www.gokorea.co.uk
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Saturday
West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur (3.30pm)
Burnley v Huddersfield Town (7pm)
Everton v Bournemouth (7pm)
Manchester City v Crystal Palace (7pm)
Southampton v Manchester United (7pm)
Stoke City v Chelsea (7pm)
Swansea City v Watford (7pm)
Leicester City v Liverpool (8.30pm)
Sunday
Brighton and Hove Albion v Newcastle United (7pm)
Monday
Arsenal v West Bromwich Albion (11pm)
The%20specs
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THE DETAILS
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Dir: Ron Howard
Starring: Alden Ehrenreich, Emilia Clarke, Woody Harrelson
3/5
Another way to earn air miles
In addition to the Emirates and Etihad programmes, there is the Air Miles Middle East card, which offers members the ability to choose any airline, has no black-out dates and no restrictions on seat availability. Air Miles is linked up to HSBC credit cards and can also be earned through retail partners such as Spinneys, Sharaf DG and The Toy Store.
An Emirates Dubai-London round-trip ticket costs 180,000 miles on the Air Miles website. But customers earn these ‘miles’ at a much faster rate than airline miles. Adidas offers two air miles per Dh1 spent. Air Miles has partnerships with websites as well, so booking.com and agoda.com offer three miles per Dh1 spent.
“If you use your HSBC credit card when shopping at our partners, you are able to earn Air Miles twice which will mean you can get that flight reward faster and for less spend,” says Paul Lacey, the managing director for Europe, Middle East and India for Aimia, which owns and operates Air Miles Middle East.
Four motivational quotes from Alicia's Dubai talk
“The only thing we need is to know that we have faith. Faith and hope in our own dreams. The belief that, when we keep going we’re going to find our way. That’s all we got.”
“Sometimes we try so hard to keep things inside. We try so hard to pretend it’s not really bothering us. In some ways, that hurts us more. You don’t realise how dishonest you are with yourself sometimes, but I realised that if I spoke it, I could let it go.”
“One good thing is to know you’re not the only one going through it. You’re not the only one trying to find your way, trying to find yourself, trying to find amazing energy, trying to find a light. Show all of yourself. Show every nuance. All of your magic. All of your colours. Be true to that. You can be unafraid.”
“It’s time to stop holding back. It’s time to do it on your terms. It’s time to shine in the most unbelievable way. It’s time to let go of negativity and find your tribe, find those people that lift you up, because everybody else is just in your way.”
Tonight's Chat on The National
Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.
Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster with a decades-long career in TV. He has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others. Karam is also the founder of Takreem.
Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.
Facebook | Our website | Instagram
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Vaccine Progress in the Middle East
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
F1 drivers' standings
1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes 281
2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 247
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes 222
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull 177
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 138
6. Max Verstappen, Red Bull 93
7. Sergio Perez, Force India 86
8. Esteban Ocon, Force India 56
UAE%20athletes%20heading%20to%20Paris%202024
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'Saand Ki Aankh'
Produced by: Reliance Entertainment with Chalk and Cheese Films
Director: Tushar Hiranandani
Cast: Taapsee Pannu, Bhumi Pednekar, Prakash Jha, Vineet Singh
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
Founders: Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah and Abdulmohsen Albabtain.
Based: Riyadh
Offices: UAE, Vietnam and Germany
Founded: September, 2020
Number of employees: 70
Sector: FinTech, online payment solutions
Funding to date: $116m in two funding rounds
Investors: Checkout.com, Impact46, Vision Ventures, Wealth Well, Seedra, Khwarizmi, Hala Ventures, Nama Ventures and family offices
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Price, base / as tested From Dh173,775 (base model)
Engine 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo, AWD
Power 249hp at 5,500rpm
Torque 365Nm at 1,300-4,500rpm
Gearbox Nine-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined 7.9L/100km
Pathaan
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Siddharth%20Anand%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shah%20Rukh%20Khan%2C%20Deepika%20Padukone%2C%20John%20Abraham%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Monday's results
- UAE beat Bahrain by 51 runs
- Qatar beat Maldives by 44 runs
- Saudi Arabia beat Kuwait by seven wickets
The specs
Price, base / as tested Dh1,100,000 (est)
Engine 5.2-litre V10
Gearbox seven-speed dual clutch
Power 630bhp @ 8,000rpm
Torque 600Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined 15.7L / 100km (est)
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
World record transfers
1. Kylian Mbappe - to Real Madrid in 2017/18 - €180 million (Dh770.4m - if a deal goes through)
2. Paul Pogba - to Manchester United in 2016/17 - €105m
3. Gareth Bale - to Real Madrid in 2013/14 - €101m
4. Cristiano Ronaldo - to Real Madrid in 2009/10 - €94m
5. Gonzalo Higuain - to Juventus in 2016/17 - €90m
6. Neymar - to Barcelona in 2013/14 - €88.2m
7. Romelu Lukaku - to Manchester United in 2017/18 - €84.7m
8. Luis Suarez - to Barcelona in 2014/15 - €81.72m
9. Angel di Maria - to Manchester United in 2014/15 - €75m
10. James Rodriguez - to Real Madrid in 2014/15 - €75m
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Mamo Year it started: 2019 Founders: Imad Gharazeddine, Asim Janjua Based: Dubai, UAE Number of employees: 28 Sector: Financial services Investment: $9.5m Funding stage: Pre-Series A Investors: Global Ventures, GFC, 4DX Ventures, AlRajhi Partners, Olive Tree Capital, and prominent Silicon Valley investors. The biog
Job: Fitness entrepreneur, body-builder and trainer
Favourite superhero: Batman
Favourite quote: We must become the change we want to see, by Mahatma Gandhi.
Favourite car: Lamborghini
Abu Dhabi traffic facts
Drivers in Abu Dhabi spend 10 per cent longer in congested conditions than they would on a free-flowing road
The highest volume of traffic on the roads is found between 7am and 8am on a Sunday.
Travelling before 7am on a Sunday could save up to four hours per year on a 30-minute commute.
The day was the least congestion in Abu Dhabi in 2019 was Tuesday, August 13.
The highest levels of traffic were found on Sunday, November 10.
Drivers in Abu Dhabi lost 41 hours spent in traffic jams in rush hour during 2019
ATP WORLD No 1
2004 Roger Federer
2005 Roger Federer
2006 Roger Federer
2007 Roger Federer
2008 Rafael Nadal
2009 Roger Federer
2010 Rafael Nadal
2011 Novak Djokovic
2012 Novak Djokovic
2013 Rafael Nadal
2014 Novak Djokovic
2015 Novak Djokovic
2016 Andy Murray
2017 Rafael Nadal
2018 Novak Djokovic
2019 Rafael Nadal
