Regardless of whether or not the global powers succeed in reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran, western governments involved in the negotiations to rein in the latter's nuclear weapons programme should examine all possible scenarios and their implications, and not just panic over the prospect of the talks failing. Further, merely hoping that a deal would soften the Iranian regime’s expansionist doctrine and the activities of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is wishful thinking.
Lately, western powers seem to be eagerly sprinting towards securing an agreement. A faction within the Biden administration in Washington seems desperate for a big foreign policy win. The three European powers involved in the talks – France, Germany and the UK – may be hoping that a deal serves the interests of a continent that is both thirsty for Iranian oil and gas and fearful of Tehran's nuclear blackmail. There is an assumption in the West that Tehran is no longer a threat to European security – either due to wishful thinking in some European capitals or because backroom dealings are being held with the Iranian regime.
While the revival of the JCPOA will lift sanctions on Iran, it might also empower the IRGC to implement the regime’s doctrine. Recall that this doctrine seeks to undermine comparatively weak Arab states, export Iran’s model to them, and foster paramilitary forces loyal to Tehran that erode Arab sovereignty. Hezbollah in Lebanon is a case in point.
It's possible that a lack of political consensus in the US on Iran’s nuclear programme will make it difficult for the Biden administration to secure an agreement ahead of the mid-term election in November. Some experts worry that a deal before the election will damage the governing Democratic Party’s prospects. But there are those who feel that a deal could favour the party at the ballot box.
In any case, the Iranian regime, which has demanded the removal of the IRGC from the US terror list, might consider postponing the same in return for an agreement, which it needs in order to revive its economy. But can the Biden administration provide such a guarantee? It’s not improbable. The formula being discussed could separate the IRGC issue the nuclear programme, in a trilateral framework comprised of the US, Europe and Iran. This framework wouldn’t require Russia or China, both of which stand with Iran and would benefit from sanctions being lifted on Tehran anyway.
Europe has a number of tools it can use to influence Iran’s behaviour, including Iran’s reliance on European technology
Moreover, the question of the IRGC's legitimacy is currently not the greatest obstacle to a deal. It is the issue of the world’s inability to monitor Iran’s nuclear programme, which has led to serious disagreements between Tehran and the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that cutting a deal is necessary to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons, and to avoid a confrontation between Iran and Israel. Let’s say there are hidden benefits to international and regional understandings that gradually open a new chapter in Iran’s behaviour and security alignments. What, then, would be the safeguards that should be considered or adopted in order to avoid the negative repercussions of a deal in the region, and to preserve American and European strategic ties with the Arab world – especially given China and Russia’s strategic alignments with Iran? In what areas should the concerned parties be vigilant to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past? And could the prospective deal become a tool with which Iran destroys the sovereignty of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon?
Creative language may be used to address the issue of IRGC's designation, to avoid obstruction, for example by condemning its past actions while expressing hope for its better behaviour in the future. An alleged Iranian plot, uncovered recently, to assassinate former US president Donald Trump’s national security adviser John Bolton could be deemed as one of its "past actions". The Europeans, meanwhile, believe Iranian-inspired terror plots on their soil have ceased, and they could insist on the preservation of the status quo.
However, they should also apply pressure on Iran’s activities in the Arab world. If this isn’t a matter of priority for the West, then it should remember that Europe is separated from the Arab region only by the Mediterranean Sea, a route that illegal immigrants continue to use to reach the continent. It is, therefore, in its interest to be alert to the Middle East’s security challenges.
Moreover, Europe has a number of tools it can use to influence Iran’s behaviour.
More from Raghida Dergham
There are economic tools, including Iran’s reliance on European technology and on the continent’s companies to make a recovery; as well as Iran's desperate need to reintegrate itself with the global economy. As fantastical as it sounds, there may be those in Europe who think that a deal that could avert an energy crisis might also encourage Tehran to pivot to the West.
In return, the West may hope a deal leads to stable Israel-Iran relations; the expansion of the Abraham Accords, and finally, a new security architecture in the Middle East that will help resolve several regional disputes.
Take Lebanon, for example, which faces economic turmoil, threats to its sovereignty, challenges to judicial independence, and an inability to invest in its own hydrocarbon resources.
The first step towards addressing the country’s myriad challenges must be to resolve the issue of the demarcation of its maritime borders with Israel. Iran is not currently hindering this process, but its proxy, Hezbollah, has entered the fray through making threats, deploying drones and inserting the "resistance" as a party to oil and gas exploration and extraction. Perhaps this is “a good cop, bad cop” routine from Tehran and Hezbollah, but those seeking the nuclear deal must secure a guarantee from Iran that lifting of sanctions against it will not fuel Hezbollah’s domination over the Lebanese state.
There are other instruments leverage over Iran that are available to western capitals, if these countries are truly honest in their stated concern for Lebanon's independence. And although the country's politicians are indeed responsible for its economic collapse, the upcoming phase of events requires the major powers to cease blaming the Lebanese people exclusively for their problems. They have a major responsibility on their shoulders to protect Lebanon and other vulnerable Arab nations from the repercussions of a deal with Iran.
The US and Europe, in particular, need to ensure that their regional objectives are translated into policy implemented with a set of rules and the threat of consequences for those who flout it. Otherwise, the wider world – and not just the region – is likely pay a heavy price down the road.
The lowdown
Badla
Rating: 2.5/5
Produced by: Red Chillies, Azure Entertainment
Director: Sujoy Ghosh
Cast: Amitabh Bachchan, Taapsee Pannu, Amrita Singh, Tony Luke
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Where to donate in the UAE
The Emirates Charity Portal
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The General Authority of Islamic Affairs & Endowments
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
Al Noor Special Needs Centre
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Emirates Airline Foundation
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
Emirates Red Crescent
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Noor Dubai Foundation
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Scoreline
Al Wasl 1 (Caio Canedo 90 1')
Al Ain 2 (Ismail Ahmed 3', Marcus Berg 50')
Red cards: Ismail Ahmed (Al Ain) 77'
THE BIO
Occupation: Specialised chief medical laboratory technologist
Age: 78
Favourite destination: Always Al Ain “Dar Al Zain”
Hobbies: his work - “ the thing which I am most passionate for and which occupied all my time in the morning and evening from 1963 to 2019”
Other hobbies: football
Favorite football club: Al Ain Sports Club
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
If you go
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Seattle from Dh5,555 return, including taxes. Portland is a 260 km drive from Seattle and Emirates offers codeshare flights to Portland with its partner Alaska Airlines.
The car
Hertz (www.hertz.ae) offers compact car rental from about $300 per week, including taxes. Emirates Skywards members can earn points on their car hire through Hertz.
Parks and accommodation
For information on Crater Lake National Park, visit www.nps.gov/crla/index.htm . Because of the altitude, large parts of the park are closed in winter due to snow. While the park’s summer season is May 22-October 31, typically, the full loop of the Rim Drive is only possible from late July until the end of October. Entry costs $25 per car for a day. For accommodation, see www.travelcraterlake.com. For information on Umpqua Hot Springs, see www.fs.usda.gov and https://soakoregon.com/umpqua-hot-springs/. For Bend, see https://www.visitbend.com/.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Expert advice
“Join in with a group like Cycle Safe Dubai or TrainYAS, where you’ll meet like-minded people and always have support on hand.”
Stewart Howison, co-founder of Cycle Safe Dubai and owner of Revolution Cycles
“When you sweat a lot, you lose a lot of salt and other electrolytes from your body. If your electrolytes drop enough, you will be at risk of cramping. To prevent salt deficiency, simply add an electrolyte mix to your water.”
Cornelia Gloor, head of RAK Hospital’s Rehabilitation and Physiotherapy Centre
“Don’t make the mistake of thinking you can ride as fast or as far during the summer as you do in cooler weather. The heat will make you expend more energy to maintain a speed that might normally be comfortable, so pace yourself when riding during the hotter parts of the day.”
Chandrashekar Nandi, physiotherapist at Burjeel Hospital in Dubai
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
The biogs
Name: Zinah Madi
Occupation: Co-founder of Dots and links
Nationality: Syrian
Family: Married, Mother of Tala, 18, Sharif, 14, Kareem, 2
Favourite Quote: “There is only one way to succeed in anything, and that is to give it everything.”
Name: Razan Nabulsi
Occupation: Co-founder of Dots and Links
Nationality: Jordanian
Family: Married, Mother of Yahya, 3.5
Favourite Quote: A Chinese proverb that says: “Be not afraid of moving slowly, be afraid only of standing still.”
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
