Despite recent crises, such as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, there are empirical reasons to be optimistic about the future.
Looking at long-lasting trends in modern societies – the rise in life expectancy and economic prosperity – the odds are high that a lot of these trends will persist. For example, despite the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic, life expectancy and economic prosperity are recovering and are on track to resume their long-term positive trend.
The data going back to the middle of the 16th century reveals how precarious the situation was a few hundred years ago. The main reasons for setbacks in life expectancy over the past 120 years have been wars and epidemics.
With the start of the era of industrialisation and its medical breakthroughs, life expectancy took off sustainably and approached 80 years at the end of the 20th century. With time, the setbacks in life expectancy get smaller but are still linked to epidemics. The toll of the First World War was amplified in 1918 by the Spanish flu, which cost more lives overall than the four previous years of fighting. Thereafter, the setbacks in life expectancy grew smaller but were still linked to epidemics, mainly the flu epidemics in the 1950s and 1960s, as well as the Aids epidemic in the 1980s. Yet as opposed to previous centuries, diseases were only brief interruptions amidst a stunning rise in life expectancy overall.
Evidence also shows that more income has been generated over the past 200 years than ever before. For instance, in the UK statistics, there was impressive economic improvement in the middle of the 19th century. This is often referred to as the era when industrialisation really took off. Before that, economic prosperity had fluctuated due to the cyclicality of agricultural harvests, and it was sometimes exacerbated by higher taxes due to wars. Economic prosperity took about 400 years to grow from the low levels of economic output per person in the early 14th century to the higher levels of the early 18th century. Thereafter, it grew by a factor of 18 in the subsequent 300 years until today.
In more concrete terms, economic prosperity grew from $2,000 per capita to over $36,000 in 300 years. In terms of wealth growth, it may once again sound unspectacular. However, there has notably been a continuous growth of more than 1 per cent year after year over the past three centuries, which is what the success of an advanced economy is all about.
Shocks such as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, tend to have, by far, less long-term negative consequences on a global scale than one might expect them to have
Now that we have outlined the long-standing trends in longevity and wealth growth, let's examine whether these trends have been stopped or reversed by recent crises.
Let us first take a look at longevity. We outlined above the patterns in modern history that point to infections as one of the main reasons for a fall in life expectancy. The same can be said of the Covid-19 pandemic, which, according to the statistics, has shortened life expectancy as well. Perhaps the drop in life expectancy due to Covid-19 has been more severe than during any epidemic that came after the flu epidemics of the 1960s and 1970s.
With regard to the wealth effects, the picture is slightly more nuanced. The latest available data that is comparable to the historical timelines was compiled before the pandemic. But we should be able to approximately gauge the effects by taking the latest output numbers (such as gross domestic product) and dividing them by the number of people in the economy (which tends not to change that much in modern society). So, in wealth terms, there are some discrepancies between countries.
On the one hand, China, the US, Switzerland and some Asian economies surpassed their pre-crisis output numbers about 12 to 18 months after the start of the pandemic. This means their per capita output has increased as well, given only moderate population growth. In contrast to those countries that have managed to move towards pre-crisis output levels, there are stagnant economies, such as Japan, the UK, and Italy, where output levels have not yet reached pre-crisis levels.
Putting it into historical context, it seems that shocks, such as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, tend to have, by far, less long-term negative consequences on a global scale than one might expect them to have.
In fact, from what we can see today, it seems that modern economies have overcome most of the pandemic-related burdens by now.
Memories of the pandemic may still be a burden to many, and people may still be traumatised by their experiences during that time. Yet overall, the odds are good that some of the improvements that humankind has experienced over the past 200 years will continue to make life better – or at least less burdensome as compared to previous generations – in the years ahead.
Despite the crises in the world today, there are good reasons to remain optimistic – or even better, a rational optimist.
All about the Sevens
Cape Town Sevens on Saturday and Sunday: Pools A – South Africa, Kenya, France, Russia; B – New Zealand, Australia, Spain, United States; C – England, Scotland, Argentina, Uganda; D – Fiji, Samoa, Canada, Wales
HSBC World Sevens Series standing after first leg in Dubai 1 South Africa; 2 New Zealand; 3 England; 4 Fiji; 5 Australia; 6 Samoa; 7 Kenya; 8 Scotland; 9 France; 10 Spain; 11 Argentina; 12 Canada; 13 Wales; 14 Uganda; 15 United States; 16 Russia
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SERIES%208
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041mm%2C%20352%20x%20430%3B%2045mm%2C%20396%20x%20484%3B%20Retina%20LTPO%20OLED%2C%20up%20to%201000%20nits%2C%20always-on%3B%20Ion-X%20glass%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20S8%2C%20W3%20wireless%2C%20U1%20ultra-wideband%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2032GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20watchOS%209%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EHealth%20metrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203rd-gen%20heart%20rate%20sensor%2C%20temperature%20sensing%2C%20ECG%2C%20blood%20oxygen%2C%20workouts%2C%20fall%2Fcrash%20detection%3B%20emergency%20SOS%2C%20international%20emergency%20calling%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20GPS%2FGPS%20%2B%20cellular%3B%20Wi-Fi%2C%20LTE%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Apple%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP6X%2C%20water%20resistant%20up%20to%2050m%2C%20dust%20resistant%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20308mAh%20Li-ion%2C%20up%20to%2018h%2C%20wireless%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20eSIM%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFinishes%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Aluminium%20%E2%80%93%20midnight%2C%20Product%20Red%2C%20silver%2C%20starlight%3B%20stainless%20steel%20%E2%80%93%20gold%2C%20graphite%2C%20silver%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Watch%20Series%208%2C%20magnetic-to-USB-C%20charging%20cable%2C%20band%2Floop%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Starts%20at%20Dh1%2C599%20(41mm)%20%2F%20Dh1%2C999%20(45mm)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More coverage from the Future Forum
More on Quran memorisation:
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hoopla%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jacqueline%20Perrottet%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20required%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
The years Ramadan fell in May
Stormy seas
Weather warnings show that Storm Eunice is soon to make landfall. The videographer and I are scrambling to return to the other side of the Channel before it does. As we race to the port of Calais, I see miles of wire fencing topped with barbed wire all around it, a silent ‘Keep Out’ sign for those who, unlike us, aren’t lucky enough to have the right to move freely and safely across borders.
We set sail on a giant ferry whose length dwarfs the dinghies migrants use by nearly a 100 times. Despite the windy rain lashing at the portholes, we arrive safely in Dover; grateful but acutely aware of the miserable conditions the people we’ve left behind are in and of the privilege of choice.
MATCH INFO
Fixture: Ukraine v Portugal, Monday, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: BeIN Sports
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Challenge Cup result:
1. UAE 3 faults
2. Ireland 9 faults
3. Brazil 11 faults
4. Spain 15 faults
5. Great Britain 17 faults
6. New Zealand 20 faults
7. Italy 26 faults
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The years Ramadan fell in May
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
GROUPS
Group Gustavo Kuerten
Novak Djokovic (x1)
Alexander Zverev (x3)
Marin Cilic (x5)
John Isner (x8)
Group Lleyton Hewitt
Roger Federer (x2)
Kevin Anderson (x4)
Dominic Thiem (x6)
Kei Nishikori (x7)
Afro%20salons
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFor%20women%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESisu%20Hair%20Salon%2C%20Jumeirah%201%2C%20Dubai%3Cbr%3EBoho%20Salon%2C%20Al%20Barsha%20South%2C%20Dubai%3Cbr%3EMoonlight%2C%20Al%20Falah%20Street%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFor%20men%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMK%20Barbershop%2C%20Dar%20Al%20Wasl%20Mall%2C%20Dubai%3Cbr%3ERegency%20Saloon%2C%20Al%20Zahiyah%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3EUptown%20Barbershop%2C%20Al%20Nasseriya%2C%20Sharjah%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Reading List
Practitioners of mindful eating recommend the following books to get you started:
Savor: Mindful Eating, Mindful Life by Thich Nhat Hanh and Dr Lilian Cheung
How to Eat by Thich Nhat Hanh
The Mindful Diet by Dr Ruth Wolever
Mindful Eating by Dr Jan Bays
How to Raise a Mindful Eaterby Maryann Jacobsen
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
THE SPECS
Engine: Four-cylinder 2.5-litre
Transmission: Seven-speed auto
Power: 165hp
Torque: 241Nm
Price: Dh99,900 to Dh134,000
On sale: now
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Results
6.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Dirt) 1,200m; Winner: Major Cinnamon, Fernando Jara, Mujeeb Rahman
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,900m; Winner: Al Mureib, Fernando Jara, Ahmad bin Harmash
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Remorse, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
8.15pm: Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Meshakel, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer
8.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Desert Peace, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,400m; Winner: Sharamm, Ryan Curatlo, Satish Seemar
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Frankenstein in Baghdad
Ahmed Saadawi
Penguin Press
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
Graduated from the American University of Sharjah
She is the eldest of three brothers and two sisters
Has helped solve 15 cases of electric shocks
Enjoys travelling, reading and horse riding
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
The five pillars of Islam
ENGLAND TEAM
Alastair Cook, Mark Stoneman, James Vince, Joe Root (captain), Dawid Malan, Jonny Bairstow, Moeen Ali, Chris Woakes, Craig Overton, Stuart Broad, James Anderson
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
Results
Ashraf Ghani 50.64 per cent
Abdullah Abdullah 39.52 per cent
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar 3.85 per cent
Rahmatullah Nabil 1.8 per cent
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
