The elite political consensus that has underpinned every Iraqi government since 2005 is falling apart. This is part of a long-term trend of elite fragmentation – a process accelerated by the decline in inter-sect elite competition on the one hand, and an intensification of intra-sect political contestation on the other. This has been particularly acute in Shiite politics.
Another long-term trend has been the widening gulf between the political elite and the people. This gap is rooted in the failure of the political classes to provide even a semblance of good governance or public service. It has long been recognised that the post-2003 political order and the oligarchy of actors that dominates it are no longer fit for purpose. So widespread is the sentiment that, in an attempt to tap into populist discourse, even some of the system’s established figures have had to admit as much in public.
In recent years, these two trends have converged and expanded. Long-standing public anger at the political classes’ inability to live up to the most basic responsibilities has taken the form of yearly mass protests since 2011, and more so since 2015, culminating in the enormous demonstrations of 2019-2020. In responding to public discontent – and in competing with each other – Iraq’s political actors have exploited the vocabulary of reform in a bid to appeal to populist sentiment. Where once the language of Iraqi populism was rooted in identity politics and sectarian entrenchment, today the more resonant theme is that of reform and change.
Few have adopted this theme more than Moqtada Al Sadr. Mr Al Sadr has positioned himself as the champion of reform and as a stalwart defender of the people against the political system of which he is a part. On numerous occasions, he has mobilised his considerable grassroots support base to stage protests or to co-opt and dominate non-Sadrist activism. In effect, he has strived to portray himself as the patron of the people and of public protest.
Rather than the revolutionary overhaul, the more likely scenario would be a reconfiguration of the governing elite bargain
This much has been clear in Mr Al Sadr’s manoeuvrings since the October 2021 election. The elections produced two opposing camps: a diverse alliance led by Mr Al Sadr on the one hand and, on the other, the Co-ordination Framework (CF) led by the more Iran-leaning elements of the Shiite political establishment. Both have claimed the right to form the next government but neither have been able to do so.
After an eight-month stalemate, Mr Al Sadr ordered his MPs to resign. As expected, the withdrawal from parliamentary politics meant a turn to street power: he mobilised his supporters to block the formation of a CF-led government. Shortly after, his followers occupied parliament effectively paralysing Iraqi politics. Mr Al Sadr characterises his challenge to the CF as a revolution, and he insists that there will be no dialogue or compromise in pursuit of a new political compact – music to many Iraqi ears.
The contest can be characterised as a struggle between the forces of the status quo versus the forces of change. However, the nature of the change that Mr Al Sadr seeks is unlikely to accord with popular expectations beyond his base. Mr Al Sadr has sought to tap into general anti-systemic sentiment explicitly stating that the protests are Iraqi protests and not just a Sadrist affair. The response has been ambivalent. Some social media influencers and protest activists have eagerly supported Mr Al Sadr. This is probably driven by a my-enemy’s-enemy-is-my-friend logic and a desperate yearning for the demise of the political classes and of Iranian influence, regardless of who ushers in the long desired change. Others view Mr Al Sadr as the only practical option for challenging the political system and particularly the powerful Iran-leaning political elites and their associated armed wings. However, many remain wary of him.
Mr Al Sadr has thrown his weight behind anti-government protests in the past only to subsume them under his influence or turn on them completely, as happened during the 2019-2020 protests. More to the point, the relation between political activism and the Sadrists has long been a paradoxical one. On the one hand, Mr Al Sadr possesses the street power, political weight and coercive capital necessary to enable sustained mass protest and political pressure. On the other hand, despite his reformist rhetoric, he is a pillar of the political system and has been pivotal to the formation of every government since 2005. Indeed the Sadrists are as culpable as anyone else in the long list of grievances that animate anti-systemic sentiment from corruption to paramilitary violence to the undermining of the rule of law. Mr Al Sadr’s rhetoric essentially takes aim at a system he has helped create and sustain.
This raises the question of what his aims are moving forward. Mr Al Sadr has demonstrated his ability to paralyse Iraqi politics, but is he capable of building an alternative? He has stated that his goal is to launch a democratic revolution that includes ending consensus government and ethno-sectarian apportionment of office, dissolving parliament, holding new elections, bringing corrupt officials to account, upholding Iraq’s sovereignty and rewriting the constitution. How any of this is to come about is unclear.
This leaves the possibility that, rather than the revolutionary overhaul that many Iraqis hope for, the more likely manifestation of his declared "democratic revolution" would be a reconfiguration of the governing elite bargain in a way that excludes some of his rivals while bringing the system more closely under his overarching authority. In other words, even if Mr Al Sadr succeeds in clipping the CF’s wings and marginalising his Iran-leaning rivals, there is nothing to suggest that he is willing or capable of altering the fundamentals of Iraq’s political economy.
Nor is Mr Al Sadr operating in a vacuum. Beyond pushback from the CF and its Iranian backers, other political actors – Shiite or otherwise – may have reservations about Mr Al Sadr’s project, not least regarding his vow that the “old faces” will have “no presence [in politics] after today”. More generally, many within the political classes will probably be apprehensive about the prospects of a Sadr-dominated system regardless of how they feel about the CF. Ultimately, this is a contest over power and authority within the political system, and it is driven as much by personal rivalries as by political conviction.
In the immediate future, the worst-case scenario would be for the current standoff to spiral into an armed conflict. No one wants such a scenario given the stakes and how much all concerned stand to lose (of course accidental escalation between squabbling armed actors can never be entirely ruled out). This points to a second scenario: Mr Al Sadr reaching a deal with the CF, or parts of it, that excludes or at least marginalises those elements of the CF that Mr Al Sadr is opposed to – particularly his arch-rival, former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki. The third scenario would be for the current caretaker government to continue with a suspended parliament until early elections can be held. This would be more of a fudge than a solution as it raises many technical, legal and constitutional issues, but it does however create more time with which to pave the way for scenario two.
Ultimately, Mr Al Sadr firmly believes that he should be the senior partner in any new government. He will therefore not allow the CF to move ahead with government formation nor is he likely to allow parliament to reconvene without his resigned MPs. The most likely scenario is for a deal of some sort to be reached. The question is, with the ongoing standoff and with possible new elections on the horizon, what will the balance of power within Iraqi politics, and particularly between Shiite political actors be, and who, if anyone, could be sidelined from the bargaining process? With all the anticipation surrounding current events and hopes for revolutionary change – Mr Al Sadr’s power play is already being labelled a revolution by some observers – perhaps the easiest prediction to make is that the political aspirations of the Iraqi people will yet again remain unfulfilled.
The biog
Full name: Aisha Abdulqader Saeed
Age: 34
Emirate: Dubai
Favourite quote: "No one has ever become poor by giving"
Titanium Escrow profile
Started: December 2016
Founder: Ibrahim Kamalmaz
Based: UAE
Sector: Finance / legal
Size: 3 employees, pre-revenue
Stage: Early stage
Investors: Founder's friends and Family
The Pope's itinerary
Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Company%20Profile
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Mia Man’s tips for fermentation
- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut
- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.
- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.
- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
India team for Sri Lanka series
Test squad: Rohit Sharma (captain), Priyank Panchal, Mayank Agarwal, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, Hanuma Vihari, Shubhman Gill, Rishabh Pant (wk), KS Bharath (wk), Ravindra Jadeja, Jayant Yadav, Ravichandran Ashwin, Kuldeep Yadav, Sourabh Kumar, Mohammed Siraj, Umesh Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Jasprit Bumrah.
T20 squad: Rohit Sharma (captain), Ruturaj Gaikwad, Shreyas Iyer, Surya Kumar Yadav, Sanju Samson, Ishan Kishan (wk), Venkatesh Iyer, Deepak Chahar, Deepak Hooda, Ravindra Jadeja, Yuzvendra Chahal, Ravi Bishnoi, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Siraj, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Harshal Patel, Jasprit Bumrah, Avesh Khan
Three ways to get a gratitude glow
By committing to at least one of these daily, you can bring more gratitude into your life, says Ong.
- During your morning skincare routine, name five things you are thankful for about yourself.
- As you finish your skincare routine, look yourself in the eye and speak an affirmation, such as: “I am grateful for every part of me, including my ability to take care of my skin.”
- In the evening, take some deep breaths, notice how your skin feels, and listen for what your skin is grateful for.
Company%20profile
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Chris%20Jordan%20on%20Sanchit
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Results:
6.30pm: Handicap (Turf) | US$175,000 2,410m | Winner: Bin Battuta, Christophe Soumillon (jockey), Saeed bin Suroor (trainer)
7.05pm: UAE 1000 Guineas Trial Conditions (Dirt) | $100,000 | 1,400m | Winner: Al Hayette, Fabrice Veron, Ismail Mohammed
7.40pm: Handicap (T) | $145,000 | 1,000m | Winner: Faatinah, Jim Crowley, David Hayes
8.15pm: Dubawi Stakes Group 3 (D) | $200,000 | 1,200m | Winner: Raven’s Corner, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
8.50pm: Singspiel Stakes Group 3 (T) | $200,000 | 1,800m | Winner: Dream Castle, Christophe Soumillon, Saeed bin Suroor
9.25pm: Handicap (T) | $175,000 | 1,400m | Winner: Another Batt, Connor Beasley, George Scott
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
John%20Wick%3A%20Chapter%204
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chad%20Stahelski%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Keanu%20Reeves%2C%20Laurence%20Fishburne%2C%20George%20Georgiou%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Manchester City 4
Otamendi (52) Sterling (59) Stones (67) Brahim Diaz (81)
Real Madrid 1
Oscar (90)
The Intruder
Director: Deon Taylor
Starring: Dennis Quaid, Michael Ealy, Meagan Good
One star
CHATGPT%20ENTERPRISE%20FEATURES
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Enterprise-grade%20security%20and%20privacy%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Unlimited%20higher-speed%20GPT-4%20access%20with%20no%20caps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Longer%20context%20windows%20for%20processing%20longer%20inputs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Advanced%20data%20analysis%20capabilities%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customisation%20options%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shareable%20chat%20templates%20that%20companies%20can%20use%20to%20collaborate%20and%20build%20common%20workflows%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Analytics%20dashboard%20for%20usage%20insights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Free%20credits%20to%20use%20OpenAI%20APIs%20to%20extend%20OpenAI%20into%20a%20fully-custom%20solution%20for%20enterprises%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More coverage from the Future Forum
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Avatar%3A%20The%20Way%20of%20Water
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJames%20Cameron%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESam%20Worthington%2C%20Zoe%20Saldana%2C%20Sigourney%20Weaver%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
The view from The National
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Race card
5.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,400m
6.05pm: Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (T) 1,400m
6.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
7.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (T) 1,200m
7.50pm: Longines Stakes – Conditions (TB) Dh120,00 (D) 1,900m
8.25pm: Zabeel Trophy – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (T) 1,600m
9pm: Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (T) 2,410m
9.35pm: Handicap (TB) Dh92,500 (T) 2,000m
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
North Pole stats
Distance covered: 160km
Temperature: -40°C
Weight of equipment: 45kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 0
Terrain: Ice rock
South Pole stats
Distance covered: 130km
Temperature: -50°C
Weight of equipment: 50kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 3,300
Terrain: Flat ice
MATCH INFO
Liverpool 4 (Salah (pen 4, 33', & pen 88', Van Dijk (20')
Leeds United 3 (Harrison 12', Bamford 30', Klich 66')
Man of the match Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
F1 drivers' standings
1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes 281
2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 247
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes 222
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull 177
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 138
6. Max Verstappen, Red Bull 93
7. Sergio Perez, Force India 86
8. Esteban Ocon, Force India 56
Switching%20sides
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Leaderboard
64 - Gavin Green (MAL), Graeme McDowell (NIR)
65 - Henrik Stenson (SWE), Sebastian Soderberg (SWE), Adri Arnaus (ESP), Victor Perez (FRA), Jhonattan Vegas (VEN)
66 - Phil Mickelson (USA), Tom Lewis (ENG), Andy Sullivan (ENG), Ross Fisher (ENG), Aaron Rai (ENG), Ryan Fox (NZL)
67 - Dustin Johnson (USA), Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez (ESP), Lucas Herbert (AUS), Francesco Laporta (ITA), Joost Luiten (NED), Soren Kjeldsen (DEN), Marcus Kinhult (SWE)
68 - Alexander Bjork (SWE), Matthieu Pavon (FRA), Adrian Meronk (POL), David Howell (ENG), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (RSA), Fabrizio Zanotti (PAR), Sean Crocker (USA), Scott Hend (AUS), Justin Harding (RSA), Jazz Janewattananond (THA), Shubhankar Sharma (IND), Renato Paratore (ITA)
The Outsider
Stephen King, Penguin
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
The Bio
Favourite Emirati dish: I have so many because it has a lot of herbs and vegetables. Harees (oats with chicken) is one of them
Favourite place to go to: Dubai Mall because it has lots of sports shops.
Her motivation: My performance because I know that whatever I do, if I put the effort in, I’ll get results
During her free time: I like to drink coffee - a latte no sugar and no flavours. I do not like cold drinks
Pet peeve: That with every meal they give you a fries and Pepsi. That is so unhealthy
Advice to anyone who wants to be an ironman: Go for the goal. If you are consistent, you will get there. With the first one, it might not be what they want but they should start and just do it
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
ENGLAND WORLD CUP SQUAD
Eoin Morgan (captain), Moeen Ali, Jonny Bairstow, Jos Buttler (wicketkeeper), Tom Curran, Joe Denly, Alex Hales, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, David Willey, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood
THE%20SPECS
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'Top Gun: Maverick'
Rating: 4/5
Directed by: Joseph Kosinski
Starring: Tom Cruise, Val Kilmer, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm, Miles Teller, Glen Powell, Ed Harris
