Between the Nato summit and US President Joe Biden’s visit to the Middle East, both in the next few weeks, key developments could overturn the balance in both the Russia-West and Israel-Iran equations. Breakthroughs on either front cannot be ruled out, but neither can serious setbacks.
Given Kyiv's stiff resistance inside Ukraine, Russia's originally stated strategic goals will have required its years-long occupation of the country that, in turn, could have led to an insurgency and a war of attrition. So, for now, Moscow will aim to conquer chunks of its territory, especially the Donbas region. The Kremlin’s wager is that Ukraine's European allies do not have the capability to thwart its strategy, and that Kyiv will suffer more losses than Moscow in the battle for the east. In its calculations, seizing vital territory no matter the cost constitutes a victory, as long as the West limits its intervention to supplying weapons, money and political support to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
But a surprise may come during the Nato summit on June 29 and 30 in Madrid. Preparations are under way to send a strong response to the Kremlin to prevent it from winning in Donbas, a victory that could tempt it once again to try to capture Kharkiv and even Kyiv. I am given to believe that Nato is thinking not about how to secure a victory for Ukraine but how to immediately abort Russia’s military operations.
A decision to launch these operations won't be an easy one for Nato to make
My sources say that Nato powers are preparing to “intervene” by launching “special military operations” in Ukraine that are in line with the UN Charter. The important feature of this strategy is that it would make a distinction between launching direct attacks on Russia and attacking invading Russian forces inside Ukraine. This would mark a major shift in the war and in the West’s standoff with Moscow.
The logic to this strategy is that there can be no further delay in stopping Russian advances. But were this to happen, the questions worth asking are, could this lead to the expansion of these "special operations" outside Ukraine; who would blink first; and when could such an escalation occur? Finally, who would pay a higher cost for it?
A direct Nato intervention could amount to a setback for Russia’s military plans, particularly because Nato aircraft are situated closer to Ukrainian military positions than Russian aircraft. In the western assessment, even if Russia were to deploy tactical nukes in Ukraine, the blame placed on Moscow as a result of such a move would increase Russia’s isolation in the world. Nato, after all, can say that Russia did it and that Russia is responsible.
A decision to launch these operations won't be an easy one for Nato to make. It could even prove costly for its leaders. However, the alliance has assessed that it will emerge a winner if it settles the military battle against Russian forces in Ukraine.
Having said this, the Kremlin retains some advantages. For one, it stands to benefit from French President Emmanuel Macron's recent proposal to mediate between Mr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, particularly if the latter insists that the meeting be held on his terms. Moscow will also rely on Nato member Turkey to veto the alliance's plans; it has slowed Finland and Sweden's membership drive, to Moscow’s advantage.
Russia, meanwhile, still believes that escalation in Israel-Iran tensions would serve its interests. Despite its willingness to facilitate a breakthrough at the Vienna talks over a possible western nuclear-oil deal with Iran, it won't mind the collapse of these talks and a subsequent confrontation between the regional adversaries. This is as long as it adds to the US’s list of concerns that it will be forced to resolve.
The Vienna talks, between Iran and the five permanent UN Security Council members, plus Germany, aren't clinically dead yet. Tehran continues to seek the lifting of US-led sanctions against it. But it has yet to find a formulation to exit the crisis that it created for itself by insisting that Washington delist the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist entity. The crisis over the switching off of cameras installed by the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor Tehran's nuclear programme has amounted to a further setback in the broader talks.
As Mr Biden considers "Plan B", his upcoming visit to Israel and Saudi Arabia will be part of a broader effort that goes beyond the pressures of securing a nuclear deal with Iran. The trip will affirm the strategic alliance with Israel and address the administration’s missteps in its early assessment of US-Saudi and US-Gulf relations. Mr Biden’s Saudi stop is expected to be part of his strategic reset in this regard. It will also send a message to Iran that he has run out of patience with its leadership, and that its regional behaviour has now imposed itself on the nuclear talks.
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This will drive the Iranian regime’s anxiety at a time of alleged Israeli activities against it both inside Iran and in war-torn Syria. Tehran is said to be planning to retaliate against Israel through its proxies. If it does engage in a direct confrontation with Israel, as has also been suggested, this would mark a sharp shift in their equation. A source close to the IRGC said it is preparing “something serious” this month. Israel's attack on the Damascus airport earlier in the month, supposedly aimed at Iranian positions, has already raised the alarm.
However, Mr Biden’s trip may curb this confrontation, if Israel decides that embarrassing the US President is not in its interest, and that thwarting a nuclear deal with Iran would implicate it militarily. Israel believes that the US administration’s move to help deepen Israeli relations with Arab states is crucial, and that nothing should endanger this.
For its part, Iran may decide that its interests are best served through strategic patience, where securing a nuclear deal and ending economic sanctions are more important than military retaliation against Israel, directly or through proxies.
The mercurial nature of this dance between threats and negotiations is not reassuring. One fears not only for Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen to continue paying the price for being proxy arenas for Iran, but also the prospect of an Israel-Iran war, despite its unlikelihood. Indeed, developments in both the Middle East and Europe continue to be terrifying.
And yet, one can also hope that the inner machinations that are undoubtedly under way will lead to the containment of ever-threatening confrontations.
'Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore'
Rating: 3/5
Directed by: David Yates
Starring: Mads Mikkelson, Eddie Redmayne, Ezra Miller, Jude Law
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Yemen's Bahais and the charges they often face
The Baha'i faith was made known in Yemen in the 19th century, first introduced by an Iranian man named Ali Muhammad Al Shirazi, considered the Herald of the Baha'i faith in 1844.
The Baha'i faith has had a growing number of followers in recent years despite persecution in Yemen and Iran.
Today, some 2,000 Baha'is reside in Yemen, according to Insaf.
"The 24 defendants represented by the House of Justice, which has intelligence outfits from the uS and the UK working to carry out an espionage scheme in Yemen under the guise of religion.. aimed to impant and found the Bahai sect on Yemeni soil by bringing foreign Bahais from abroad and homing them in Yemen," the charge sheet said.
Baha'Ullah, the founder of the Bahai faith, was exiled by the Ottoman Empire in 1868 from Iran to what is now Israel. Now, the Bahai faith's highest governing body, known as the Universal House of Justice, is based in the Israeli city of Haifa, which the Bahais turn towards during prayer.
The Houthis cite this as collective "evidence" of Bahai "links" to Israel - which the Houthis consider their enemy.
Christopher Robin
Starring: Ewan McGregor, Haley Atwell, Jim Cummings, Peter Capaldi
Three stars
What's in the deal?
Agreement aims to boost trade by £25.5bn a year in the long run, compared with a total of £42.6bn in 2024
India will slash levies on medical devices, machinery, cosmetics, soft drinks and lamb.
India will also cut automotive tariffs to 10% under a quota from over 100% currently.
Indian employees in the UK will receive three years exemption from social security payments
India expects 99% of exports to benefit from zero duty, raising opportunities for textiles, marine products, footwear and jewellery
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The specs: 2018 Maxus T60
Price, base / as tested: Dh48,000
Engine: 2.4-litre four-cylinder
Power: 136hp @ 1,600rpm
Torque: 360Nm @ 1,600 rpm
Transmission: Five-speed manual
Fuel consumption, combined: 9.1L / 100km
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Tips to avoid getting scammed
1) Beware of cheques presented late on Thursday
2) Visit an RTA centre to change registration only after receiving payment
3) Be aware of people asking to test drive the car alone
4) Try not to close the sale at night
5) Don't be rushed into a sale
6) Call 901 if you see any suspicious behaviour
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Five famous companies founded by teens
There are numerous success stories of teen businesses that were created in college dorm rooms and other modest circumstances. Below are some of the most recognisable names in the industry:
- Facebook: Mark Zuckerberg and his friends started Facebook when he was a 19-year-old Harvard undergraduate.
- Dell: When Michael Dell was an undergraduate student at Texas University in 1984, he started upgrading computers for profit. He starting working full-time on his business when he was 19. Eventually, his company became the Dell Computer Corporation and then Dell Inc.
- Subway: Fred DeLuca opened the first Subway restaurant when he was 17. In 1965, Mr DeLuca needed extra money for college, so he decided to open his own business. Peter Buck, a family friend, lent him $1,000 and together, they opened Pete’s Super Submarines. A few years later, the company was rebranded and called Subway.
- Mashable: In 2005, Pete Cashmore created Mashable in Scotland when he was a teenager. The site was then a technology blog. Over the next few decades, Mr Cashmore has turned Mashable into a global media company.
- Oculus VR: Palmer Luckey founded Oculus VR in June 2012, when he was 19. In August that year, Oculus launched its Kickstarter campaign and raised more than $1 million in three days. Facebook bought Oculus for $2 billion two years later.
U19 World Cup in South Africa
Group A: India, Japan, New Zealand, Sri Lanka
Group B: Australia, England, Nigeria, West Indies
Group C: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Scotland, Zimbabwe
Group D: Afghanistan, Canada, South Africa, UAE
UAE fixtures
Saturday, January 18, v Canada
Wednesday, January 22, v Afghanistan
Saturday, January 25, v South Africa
UAE squad
Aryan Lakra (captain), Vriitya Aravind, Deshan Chethyia, Mohammed Farazuddin, Jonathan Figy, Osama Hassan, Karthik Meiyappan, Rishabh Mukherjee, Ali Naseer, Wasi Shah, Alishan Sharafu, Sanchit Sharma, Kai Smith, Akasha Tahir, Ansh Tandon
Farasan Boat: 128km Away from Anchorage
Director: Mowaffaq Alobaid
Stars: Abdulaziz Almadhi, Mohammed Al Akkasi, Ali Al Suhaibani
Rating: 4/5
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
MATCH INFO
Barcelona 4 (Messi 23' pen, 45 1', 48', Busquets 85')
Celta Vigo 1 (Olaza 42')
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Founders: Michele Ferrario, Nino Ulsamer and Freddy Lim
Started: established in 2016 and launched in July 2017
Based: Singapore, with offices in the UAE, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand
Sector: FinTech, wealth management
Initial investment: $500,000 in seed round 1 in 2016; $2.2m in seed round 2 in 2017; $5m in series A round in 2018; $12m in series B round in 2019; $16m in series C round in 2020 and $25m in series D round in 2021
Current staff: more than 160 employees
Stage: series D
Investors: EightRoads Ventures, Square Peg Capital, Sequoia Capital India
