Turbines at a wind farm in China. Bloomberg
Turbines at a wind farm in China. Bloomberg
Turbines at a wind farm in China. Bloomberg
Turbines at a wind farm in China. Bloomberg


China's economic slowdown could set the stage for tech dominance


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June 15, 2022

China’s economy has suffered a plunge in the first half of 2022. But put into context, given its economic size, even a 5 per cent expansion of its economy is nearly equal to creating an economy the size of the Netherlands’, or one larger than Turkey’s. A slower growth rate on such a gigantic economic scale is inevitable.

While gloom abounds, China’s economic engine has hit a kerb, not a dead end, and there is still ample room to engineer an economic turnaround.

In the latest 10,000-participant economic rescue meeting presided by Premier Li Keqiang, he cautioned that “the current economic condition, at some levels, is worse than in early 2020 when Covid-19 freshly hit”.

China faces export decline and consumption fragility in 2022, exacerbated by the ongoing zero-Covid policy. Manufacturing capacity has mainly been disrupted under lockdowns, and consumption growth has nearly been stagnant, with millions of Chinese stuck at home.

But Mr Li also noted that China did not flood the market with liquidity during the pandemic, and as a result has escaped the inflation curse engulfing the West. China’s April consumer price index, a measure of the price of consumer goods and a marker of inflation, rose a mild 2.1 per cent and the Chinese Central Bank has enough policy space to lower interest rates if the economy commands it.

Trade, consumption and investment are commonly named the “three horse carriages of the Chinese economy”. It is unsurprising that China’s imminent economic rescue measures will centre on the third and last horse of the economy. In the meeting, Mr Li committed to an old-school Keynesian policy prescription: major investment in the country’s infrastructure.

In the more than 40 years since China began its reforms, its economy has hit speed bumps a few times, including in 1990, in 1998 following the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Each time, China faced enormous domestic economic challenges. And each time, China fostered new growth impetus to the economy.

Persistent lockdowns to counter the spread of Covid-19 have played a role in China's economic slowdown this year. Getty
Persistent lockdowns to counter the spread of Covid-19 have played a role in China's economic slowdown this year. Getty
In the more than 40 years since China began its reforms, its economy has hit speed bumps, and each time, it fostered new growth

In the first two decades of the 21st century, investing in rural transportation, highways, high-speed rail and airports has been a sturdy pillar of China’s economic growth, particularly at difficult moments. This time is no different.

However, China faces a new dilemma in 2022. The challenge for China today is less whether it should invest in infrastructure but what infrastructure it should invest in that will best deliver the economic outcome needed for tomorrow. Not all types of infrastructure are equal when measured by growth potential.

But today, China’s economic challenges go beyond simple structural reasons. It faces two formidable economic risks in 2022: the side effects of the persistent zero-Covid policy and the tightened control of the private sector over the past year. Two sectors stand out as the primary casualties.

The real estate sector produces a fifth of China’s GDP. Real estate feeds into a large spectrum of industries, from raw materials, construction and banking to real estate services. The real estate sector has been suffering from the government policy claw-back from land sales and bank credits to imposed sales price caps and floors.

Since the surprising measures taken against China’s ride-hailing app Didi one day after its debut on the New York Stock Exchange, the country's most savvy entrepreneurs have responded swiftly by relocating stock offerings to Hong Kong and focusing on their core businesses. The antitrust regulations imposed on Chinese technology companies have caused layoffs among China’s nouveau tech elite class, who have grown comfortable living off of lucrative stock options. Over $1 trillion worth of market cap from big Chinese tech firms has dissipated at both the US and Hong Kong stock exchanges since then.

So what next? The solution to China's growth clearly lies in the technology realm – but think infrastructure, not unicorns. NDRC, the national economic planning body, has outlined an ambitious data and computing power national roadmap for the 2020s. The plan aims to transfer the wealth of data stored on servers on China’s east coast to the newly conceived data computing centres in the western part of the country. China’s west has thus far lagged in its development momentum; this move will not only tap into the rich renewable energy capacity there, but also give the region a unique unequivocal strength in the digital era.

China is clearly focusing on renewable energy infrastructure, budgeting nearly $10tn to expand capacity – a bold move that will fast track the renewable energy innovation cycle, reduce the cost and cement an inalienable centrality to the global supply chain for the energy transition. Over the coming decades, China will likely be the world’s largest electric vehicle producer, with a robust national EV infrastructure outlay. It currently holds the most significant global share in solar and wind energy supply chains.

By contrast, the American Build Back Better Act that would see the delivery of renewable energy infrastructure, including 50,000 charging stations across the US, was voted down by the Senate. While both China and the US realise the significance of investing in renewable energy infrastructure, China’s economic slowdown has provided the incentives to expand its own infrastructure massively while the US lags behind.

Within the decade, China will see its cloud computing capability significantly upgraded and its renewable energy market more affordable and accessible. A new economic model will emerge out of this crisis, making the current slowdown, ironically, worthwhile.

Conflict, drought, famine

Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.

Band Aid

Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.

EPL's youngest
  • Ethan Nwaneri (Arsenal)
    15 years, 181 days old
  • Max Dowman (Arsenal)
    15 years, 235 days old
  • Jeremy Monga (Leicester)
    15 years, 271 days old
  • Harvey Elliott (Fulham)
    16 years, 30 days old
  • Matthew Briggs (Fulham)
    16 years, 68 days old
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Power: 510hp at 9,000rpm
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
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Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?

The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.

A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.

Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.

The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.

When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.

The lowdown

Bohemian Rhapsody

Director: Bryan Singer

Starring: Rami Malek, Lucy Boynton, Gwilym Lee

Rating: 3/5

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Points about the fast fashion industry Celine Hajjar wants everyone to know
  • Fast fashion is responsible for up to 10 per cent of global carbon emissions
  • Fast fashion is responsible for 24 per cent of the world's insecticides
  • Synthetic fibres that make up the average garment can take hundreds of years to biodegrade
  • Fast fashion labour workers make 80 per cent less than the required salary to live
  • 27 million fast fashion workers worldwide suffer from work-related illnesses and diseases
  • Hundreds of thousands of fast fashion labourers work without rights or protection and 80 per cent of them are women
Sole survivors
  • Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
  • George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
  • Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
  • Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Mica

Director: Ismael Ferroukhi

Stars: Zakaria Inan, Sabrina Ouazani

3 stars

Pharaoh's curse

British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.

Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
  • Priority access to new homes from participating developers
  • Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
  • Flexible payment plans from developers
  • Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
  • DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.

Part three: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

Founders: Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah and Abdulmohsen Albabtain.

Based: Riyadh

Offices: UAE, Vietnam and Germany

Founded: September, 2020

Number of employees: 70

Sector: FinTech, online payment solutions

Funding to date: $116m in two funding rounds  

Investors: Checkout.com, Impact46, Vision Ventures, Wealth Well, Seedra, Khwarizmi, Hala Ventures, Nama Ventures and family offices

What the law says

Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.

“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.

“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”

If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.

Updated: June 15, 2022, 2:00 PM`