The two major US political parties – the Democrats and the Republicans – are perennially in upheaval. That's by design in a system that funnels all major political inputs into two giant, uneasy coalitions.
But the two party leaders are looking unusually weak these days. In different ways, Donald Trump and Joe Biden aren't inspiring much confidence.
Mr Biden's is the more straightforward case. He and his fellow centrists are still in charge of the Democratic Party, even though they face persistent challenges from a left wing that wants to take control. Like many first-term presidents, Mr Biden is facing a second year of misery. His poll numbers range from bad to abysmal, and despite his deft handling of the Ukraine crisis, it's still "the economy, stupid" that shapes the national mood.
First-term presidents' parties typically lose ground in their first midterms. Mr Biden may face a particularly large setback, because his party already has little room to manoeuvre in Congress. The persistence of significant inflation and the growing threat of a potential recession explain the distinctly sour mood of the country. It's looking like a grim November for the Democrats.
Time is not on Trump's side. But it may be on Biden's
However, his opposite number, Mr Trump, appears, if anything, to be in even bigger trouble. It's remarkable that he has been able to maintain a tight grip over his party despite his 2020 presidential election defeat to Mr Biden, although that's partly because he has convinced most Republicans that he didn't actually lose but was cheated. But as the Republican primaries for the November election are demonstrating, that grip is loosening considerably.
His spectacular comeuppance in Georgia last week was stunning. David Perdue, his anointed candidate, was demolished by incumbent governor Brian Kemp by more than 50 percentage points. Even worse, Georgia Republicans also re-nominated Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Both men rebuffed Mr Trump's claims about massive fraud in Georgia's 2020 election, and Mr Raffensperger did so with public derision and contempt. Mr Trump's effort to take vengeance on these alleged turncoats was of no interest to Republicans in Georgia.
Mr Trump's efforts to play the wrathful kingmaker have had, at best, mixed results. The Georgia humiliation was entirely self-inflicted. There was no rational reason for the former president to make state-level primaries de facto referendums on himself and his ridiculous fabrications about the 2020 vote. While most Republican candidates won't criticise Mr Trump or challenge his "big lie" about that election, it's clear that voters can distinguish between candidates who appeal to them and those he anoints. His cult of personality is in trouble.
It should be good news to him that his style of politics appears to be transferable and to have a life of its own. But it's evidently, and unsurprisingly, not. While he is still easily the most popular Republican figure, it's almost certain that Mr Trump would face some sort of opposition, and possibly a potent and credible one, if he seeks the 2024 presidential nomination.
Potential challengers include Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Indeed, Mr DeSantis appears to be slowly constructing an American analogue to Viktor Orban's Hungarian "illiberal democracy" in Florida with elements of authoritarianism and hints of fascism. Mr DeSantis refuses to say whether he would challenge Mr Trump for the nomination or not. And the former president has not formally announced another campaign for the presidency.
But it is becoming increasingly clear that if he cannot move past re-litigating the 2020 election, he will not be a viable national candidate in 2024, even if he can win the party nomination. A group of prominent Republican leaders have banded together to oppose what they call Mr Trump's "revenge tour" of primary elections, and are plainly looking for alternative leadership.
Time is not on Mr Trump's side, particularly if he continues to obsess about 2020. But it may be on Mr Biden's. There is a strong pattern of Americans electing a president, then defeating his party in the first midterms, especially in the House of Representatives, and then re-electing him for a second term. This pattern of divided government applied to Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, while George W Bush's first midterms were held in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and its atmosphere of national unity.
So, Mr Biden’s chances of re-election may be better than many assume at present. Arguably the biggest challenge he will face is his age. He was 78 when he was elected as the oldest US president in history. Mr Trump, however, was the third oldest at age 70.
The American political system doesn't only suffer from structural dysfunctions, particularly anti-democratic elements that have yielded many dangerous manifestations of minority rule. It's also beset by an unhealthy level of gerontocracy, the rule of the elderly. It's not just Mr Biden and Mr Trump. Most of the senior leadership in both parties in the House and Senate are remarkably advanced in age. That's not necessarily a disaster, but it does demonstrate the undue advantage incumbents generally enjoy and, more strikingly, the noticeable lack of talent in the two, or in some cases even three, generations labouring to succeed them.
Mr Trump already defied expectations by winning the Republican nomination and then the presidency in 2016, and by remaining the dominant Republican despite his 2020 defeat. But the signs that his ascendancy may be ebbing are clear. Mr Biden's real test, meanwhile, will come after the midterms, particularly if, as seems likely, his party suffers a major defeat. That would almost certainly initiate a concerted and bitter attack from the left on his centrist leadership and policies.
Both the Republican and the Democratic leaders are old enough that their health is an issue, and, although it's obvious that both men are fully in control of their wits, both are frequently accused of being senile. Yet, Mr Biden has a huge advantage. He is in the White House. And that gives him leverage Mr Trump doesn't have to fend off internal party critics, battle Republicans and persist in shaping a forward-looking agenda. He's got enormous power.
Mr Trump not only lacks such authority, as ever he's his own worst enemy. As long as he makes dozens of state-level elections de facto referendums on his leadership and, especially, remains fixated on re-litigating 2020, his influence on national, and even Republican, politics can only continue to decline.
Babumoshai Bandookbaaz
Director: Kushan Nandy
Starring: Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Bidita Bag, Jatin Goswami
Three stars
T20 WORLD CUP QUALIFIER
Results
UAE beat Nigeria by five wickets
Hong Kong beat Canada by 32 runs
Friday fixtures
10am, Tolerance Oval, Abu Dhabi – Ireland v Jersey
7.30pm, Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi – Canada v Oman
The specs: 2018 Jaguar E-Pace First Edition
Price, base / as tested: Dh186,480 / Dh252,735
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder
Power: 246hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 365Nm @ 1,200rpm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.7L / 100km
The more serious side of specialty coffee
While the taste of beans and freshness of roast is paramount to the specialty coffee scene, so is sustainability and workers’ rights.
The bulk of genuine specialty coffee companies aim to improve on these elements in every stage of production via direct relationships with farmers. For instance, Mokha 1450 on Al Wasl Road strives to work predominantly with women-owned and -operated coffee organisations, including female farmers in the Sabree mountains of Yemen.
Because, as the boutique’s owner, Garfield Kerr, points out: “women represent over 90 per cent of the coffee value chain, but are woefully underrepresented in less than 10 per cent of ownership and management throughout the global coffee industry.”
One of the UAE’s largest suppliers of green (meaning not-yet-roasted) beans, Raw Coffee, is a founding member of the Partnership of Gender Equity, which aims to empower female coffee farmers and harvesters.
Also, globally, many companies have found the perfect way to recycle old coffee grounds: they create the perfect fertile soil in which to grow mushrooms.
PREMIER LEAGUE STATS
Romelu Lukaku's goalscoring statistics in the Premier League
Season/club/appearances (substitute)/goals
2011/12 Chelsea: 8(7) - 0
2012/13 West Brom (loan): 35(15) - 17
2013/14 Chelsea: 2(2) - 0
2013/14 Everton (loan): 31(2) - 15
2014/15 Everton: 36(4) - 10
2015/16 Everton: 37(1) - 18
2016/17 Everton: 37(1) - 25
MATCH INFO
RB Leipzig 2 (Klostermann 24', Schick 68')
Hertha Berlin 2 (Grujic 9', Piatek 82' pen)
Man of the match Matheus Cunha (Hertha Berlin
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
Asia%20Cup%202022
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWhat%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAsia%20Cup%20final%3A%20Sri%20Lanka%20v%20Pakistan%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWhen%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESunday%2C%20September%2011%2C%20from%206pm%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWhere%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EDubai%20International%20Stadium%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EHow%20to%20watch%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ECatch%20the%20live%20action%20on%20Starzplay%20across%20Mena%20region.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Sugary teas and iced coffees
The tax authority is yet to release a list of the taxed products, but it appears likely that sugary iced teas and cold coffees will be hit.
For instance, the non-fizzy drink AriZona Iced Tea contains 65 grams of sugar – about 16 teaspoons – per 680ml can. The average can costs about Dh6, which would rise to Dh9.
Cold coffee brands are likely to be hit too. Drinks such as Starbucks Bottled Mocha Frappuccino contain 31g of sugar in 270ml, while Nescafe Mocha in a can contains 15.6g of sugar in a 240ml can.
The specs
BMW M8 Competition Coupe
Engine 4.4-litre twin-turbo V8
Power 625hp at 6,000rpm
Torque 750Nm from 1,800-5,800rpm
Gearbox Eight-speed paddleshift auto
Acceleration 0-100kph in 3.2 sec
Top speed 305kph
Fuel economy, combined 10.6L / 100km
Price from Dh700,000 (estimate)
On sale Jan/Feb 2020
'HIJRAH%3A%20IN%20THE%20FOOTSTEPS%20OF%20THE%20PROPHET'
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BELGIUM%20SQUAD
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Racecard
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TV: World Cup Qualifier 2018 matches will be aired on on OSN Sports HD Cricket channel
The years Ramadan fell in May
Superpower%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESean%20Penn%2C%20Aaron%20Kaufman%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EWafeq%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJanuary%202019%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENadim%20Alameddine%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%2C%20UAE%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Esoftware%20as%20a%20service%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%243%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERaed%20Ventures%20and%20Wamda%2C%20among%20others%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Results
4.30pm Jebel Jais – Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 (Turf) 1,000m; Winner: MM Al Balqaa, Bernardo Pinheiro (jockey), Qaiss Aboud (trainer)
5pm: Jabel Faya – Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 (T) 1,000m; Winner: AF Rasam, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
5.30pm: Al Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: AF Mukhrej, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: The President’s Cup Prep – Conditions (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Mujeeb, Richard Mullen, Salem Al Ketbi
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Equestrian Club – Prestige (PA) Dh125,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Antonio Fresu, Abubakar Daud
7pm: Al Ruwais – Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Ashton Tourettes, Pat Dobbs, Ibrahim Aseel
7.30pm: Jebel Hafeet – Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Nibraas, Richard Mullen, Nicholas Bachalard
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
STAR%20WARS%20JEDI%3A%20SURVIVOR
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Respawn%20Entertainment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Electronic%20Arts%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsoles%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PC%2C%20Playstation%205%2C%20Xbox%20Series%20X%20and%20S%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Farasan Boat: 128km Away from Anchorage
Director: Mowaffaq Alobaid
Stars: Abdulaziz Almadhi, Mohammed Al Akkasi, Ali Al Suhaibani
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PlanRadar%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2013%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EIbrahim%20Imam%2C%20Sander%20van%20de%20Rijdt%2C%20Constantin%20K%C3%B6ck%2C%20Clemens%20Hammerl%2C%20Domagoj%20Dolinsek%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVienna%2C%20Austria%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EConstruction%20and%20real%20estate%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E400%2B%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20B%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Headline%2C%20Berliner%20Volksbank%20Ventures%2C%20aws%20Gr%C3%BCnderfonds%2C%20Cavalry%20Ventures%2C%20Proptech1%2C%20Russmedia%2C%20GR%20Capital%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The years Ramadan fell in May
Bawaal%20
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Afro%20salons
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFor%20women%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESisu%20Hair%20Salon%2C%20Jumeirah%201%2C%20Dubai%3Cbr%3EBoho%20Salon%2C%20Al%20Barsha%20South%2C%20Dubai%3Cbr%3EMoonlight%2C%20Al%20Falah%20Street%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFor%20men%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMK%20Barbershop%2C%20Dar%20Al%20Wasl%20Mall%2C%20Dubai%3Cbr%3ERegency%20Saloon%2C%20Al%20Zahiyah%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3EUptown%20Barbershop%2C%20Al%20Nasseriya%2C%20Sharjah%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Abaya trends
The utilitarian robe held dear by Arab women is undergoing a change that reveals it as an elegant and graceful garment available in a range of colours and fabrics, while retaining its traditional appeal.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
ELECTION%20RESULTS
%3Cp%3EMacron%E2%80%99s%20Ensemble%20group%20won%20245%20seats.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20second-largest%20group%20in%20parliament%20is%20Nupes%2C%20a%20leftist%20coalition%20led%20by%20Jean-Luc%20Melenchon%2C%20which%20gets%20131%20lawmakers.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20far-right%20National%20Rally%20fared%20much%20better%20than%20expected%20with%2089%20seats.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20centre-right%20Republicans%20and%20their%20allies%20took%2061.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
How Islam's view of posthumous transplant surgery changed
Transplants from the deceased have been carried out in hospitals across the globe for decades, but in some countries in the Middle East, including the UAE, the practise was banned until relatively recently.
Opinion has been divided as to whether organ donations from a deceased person is permissible in Islam.
The body is viewed as sacred, during and after death, thus prohibiting cremation and tattoos.
One school of thought viewed the removal of organs after death as equally impermissible.
That view has largely changed, and among scholars and indeed many in society, to be seen as permissible to save another life.
Indoor Cricket World Cup Dubai 2017
Venue Insportz, Dubai; Admission Free
Fixtures - Open Men 2pm: India v New Zealand, Malaysia v UAE, Singapore v South Africa, Sri Lanka v England; 8pm: Australia v Singapore, India v Sri Lanka, England v Malaysia, New Zealand v South Africa
Fixtures - Open Women Noon: New Zealand v England, UAE v Australia; 6pm: England v South Africa, New Zealand v Australia
Points Classification after Stage 1
1. Geraint Thomas (Britain / Team Sky) 20
2. Stefan Kueng (Switzerland / BMC Racing) 17
3. Vasil Kiryienka (Belarus / Team Sky) 15
4. Tony Martin (Germany / Katusha) 13
5. Matteo Trentin (Italy / Quick-Step) 11
6. Chris Froome (Britain / Team Sky) 10
7. Jos van Emden (Netherlands / LottoNL) 9
8. Michal Kwiatkowski (Poland / Team Sky) 8
9. Marcel Kittel (Germany / Quick-Step) 7
10. Edvald Boasson Hagen (Norway / Dimension Data) 6
The%20specs
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Results
%3Cp%3EStage%204%3A%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Juan%20Sebastian%20Molano%20(COL)%20Team%20UAE%20Emirates%20%E2%80%93%203hrs%2050min%2001sec%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Olav%20Kooij%20(NED)%20Jumbo-Visma%20%E2%80%93%20ST%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Sam%20Welsford%20(AUS)%20Team%20DSM)%20%E2%80%93%20ST%0D%3Cbr%3EGeneral%20Classification%3A%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Lucas%20Plapp%20(AUS)%20Ineos%20Grenaders%20%E2%80%93%207%E2%80%B3%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Pello%20Bilbao%20(ESP)%20Bahrain%20Victorious%20%E2%80%93%2011%E2%80%B3%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'The Woman in the House Across the Street from the Girl in the Window'
Director:Michael Lehmann
Stars:Kristen Bell
Rating: 1/5
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
CHELSEA SQUAD
Arrizabalaga, Bettinelli, Rudiger, Christensen, Silva, Chalobah, Sarr, Azpilicueta, James, Kenedy, Alonso, Jorginho, Kante, Kovacic, Saul, Barkley, Ziyech, Pulisic, Mount, Hudson-Odoi, Werner, Havertz, Lukaku.
Look north
BBC business reporters, like a new raft of government officials, are being removed from the national and international hub of London and surely the quality of their work must suffer.
Five personal finance podcasts from The National
To help you get started, tune into these Pocketful of Dirham episodes
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Balance is essential to happiness, health and wealth
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What is a portfolio stress test?
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What are NFTs and why are auction houses interested?
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How gamers are getting rich by earning cryptocurrencies
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Should you buy or rent a home in the UAE?
