For all the enthusiasm the Biden administration has shown for reviving the Iran nuclear deal, the prospects of an agreement being reached between the two sides appear more remote than ever.
It was only a few months ago that European negotiators were excitedly proclaiming that a deal would be signed within a matter of weeks.
The most bullish assessment came from top EU diplomat Josep Borrell, who told a session of the Doha Forum in March that Iran was “very close” to signing an agreement that would curb Tehran’s nuclear programme in exchange for lifting tough sanctions.
"Now we are very close to an agreement and I hope it will be possible," said Mr Borrell, later confiding to reporters that a deal could be accomplished "in a matter of days".
On reflection, this turned out to be the high water mark of the negotiating process. For since then, talks have unravelled at an alarming rate – to the extent that US officials are now openly pessimistic about reviving the 2015 agreement that was originally agreed between the Obama administration and Tehran.
The parlous state of the talks was reflected in comments made to the US Congress this week by Robert Malley, the US special envoy for Iran, who conceded that the odds for failure outweighed those for success.
In his first public testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Mr Malley described negotiations to return to the 2015 nuclear deal as “tenuous”. As a consequence, Iran’s breakout time to achieve a nuclear weapons capability is now “as short as a matter of weeks”, he added.
To date, the Biden administration has been involved in eight rounds of indirect talks with Iran in Vienna to resurrect that deal, formally known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which is designed to cap Tehran’s nuclear activities and prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon.
But in recent weeks, a number of significant obstacles have arisen that have essentially torpedoed the talks.
The first indication that all was not proceeding smoothly came with Iran’s last-minute demand that the US remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from its terrorist organisations list. Just at the point when the talks appeared to be nearing fruition in March, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said that the lifting of US sanctions on the IRGC had become one of Iran’s top demands.
Progress was further disrupted following demands by Russia, one of the original signatories to the 2015 deal, that any revived agreement had to ensure that Moscow was allowed to continue trading with Tehran, and would not be subject to sanctions imposed over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Since then, Russia’s involvement in the talks has been further complicated by revelations that Moscow and Tehran are co-operating on efforts to evade sanctions.
Washington has now responded by imposing sanctions on what it describes as a Russian-backed oil smuggling and money laundering network for the IRGC’s Quds Force. Announcing the measures on Wednesday, the US Treasury Department said the network was led by current and former Quds Force figures, and was “backed by senior levels of the Russian Federation government”.
It claimed Chinese companies and a former Afghan diplomat were also involved in the operation, which had raised hundreds of millions of dollars for the Quds Force and Iran's Lebanese allies Hezbollah, as well as helping Tehran to support other proxy militant groups.
But arguably the most challenging obstacle to any successful resolution of the dispute is the deepening fallout between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN-sponsored body responsible for monitoring Iran’s nuclear activities, over Tehran’s failure to resolve long-standing concerns over uranium particles found at historic sites.
The IAEA has spent more than a decade pressuring Tehran to explain the presence of these particles, which include weapons-grade material, that have been found at a number of installations. Indeed, Iran was supposed to provide an explanation as part of the original negotiating process that resulted in the signing of the JCPOA in 2015. But in his haste to secure a deal, former US president Barack Obama agreed to sign the deal after accepting Tehran’s assurances that a full explanation would be forthcoming at a later date.
Seven years on, Iran has given no explanation, even though IAEA Director Gen Rafael Grossi is pressing Tehran to provide answers as part of the current round of negotiations.
Speaking this week at a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Mr Grossi warned that talks aimed at resolving the particles issue are at "a very difficult juncture".
Even though Mr Grossi and Iran had agreed in March on a three-month plan to resolve the matter, the talks are now stalled, with Mr Grossi saying it is hard to imagine any agreement to revive the JCPOA being implemented as long as the IAEA still has not received satisfactory answers.
"I suppose I should abstain from having a final conclusion at this point since we haven't finished the process yet, but let me say that we are at a very difficult juncture at the moment," he said.
This is a sobering assessment, one that suggests that, far from making progress on a revived nuclear deal, the prospects of a new agreement with Tehran remain decidedly bleak, with all the implications that is likely to have for the future security of the region.
THE BIG THREE
NOVAK DJOKOVIC
19 grand slam singles titles
Wimbledon: 5 (2011, 14, 15, 18, 19)
French Open: 2 (2016, 21)
US Open: 3 (2011, 15, 18)
Australian Open: 9 (2008, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 19, 20, 21)
Prize money: $150m
ROGER FEDERER
20 grand slam singles titles
Wimbledon: 8 (2003, 04, 05, 06, 07, 09, 12, 17)
French Open: 1 (2009)
US Open: 5 (2004, 05, 06, 07, 08)
Australian Open: 6 (2004, 06, 07, 10, 17, 18)
Prize money: $130m
RAFAEL NADAL
20 grand slam singles titles
Wimbledon: 2 (2008, 10)
French Open: 13 (2005, 06, 07, 08, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 17, 18, 19, 20)
US Open: 4 (2010, 13, 17, 19)
Australian Open: 1 (2009)
Prize money: $125m
Chef Nobu's advice for eating sushi
“One mistake people always make is adding extra wasabi. There is no need for this, because it should already be there between the rice and the fish.
“When eating nigiri, you must dip the fish – not the rice – in soy sauce, otherwise the rice will collapse. Also, don’t use too much soy sauce or it will make you thirsty. For sushi rolls, dip a little of the rice-covered roll lightly in soy sauce and eat in one bite.
“Chopsticks are acceptable, but really, I recommend using your fingers for sushi. Do use chopsticks for sashimi, though.
“The ginger should be eaten separately as a palette cleanser and used to clear the mouth when switching between different pieces of fish.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The years Ramadan fell in May
INFO
Everton 0
Arsenal 0
Man of the Match: Djibril Sidibe (Everton)
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How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP FIXTURES
September 30
South Africa v Australia
Argentina v New Zealand
October 7
South Africa v New Zealand
Argentina v Australia
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%202-litre%20direct%20injection%20turbo%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%207-speed%20automatic%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20261hp%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20400Nm%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20From%20Dh134%2C999%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SPEC SHEET
Display: 10.9" Liquid Retina IPS, 2360 x 1640, 264ppi, wide colour, True Tone, Apple Pencil support
Chip: Apple M1, 8-core CPU, 8-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Memory: 64/256GB storage; 8GB RAM
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, Smart HDR
Video: 4K @ 25/25/30/60fps, full HD @ 25/30/60fps, slo-mo @ 120/240fps
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR, Centre Stage; full HD @ 25/30/60fps
Audio: Stereo speakers
Biometrics: Touch ID
I/O: USB-C, smart connector (for folio/keyboard)
Battery: Up to 10 hours on Wi-Fi; up to 9 hours on cellular
Finish: Space grey, starlight, pink, purple, blue
Price: Wi-Fi – Dh2,499 (64GB) / Dh3,099 (256GB); cellular – Dh3,099 (64GB) / Dh3,699 (256GB)
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The years Ramadan fell in May
SANCTIONED
- Kirill Shamalov, Russia's youngest billionaire and previously married to Putin's daughter Katarina
- Petr Fradkov, head of recently sanctioned Promsvyazbank and son of former head of Russian Foreign Intelligence, the FSB.
- Denis Bortnikov, Deputy President of Russia's largest bank VTB. He is the son of Alexander Bortnikov, head of the FSB which was responsible for the poisoning of political activist Alexey Navalny in August 2020 with banned chemical agent novichok.
- Yury Slyusar, director of United Aircraft Corporation, a major aircraft manufacturer for the Russian military.
- Elena Aleksandrovna Georgieva, chair of the board of Novikombank, a state-owned defence conglomerate.
Tips to keep your car cool
- Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
- Park in shaded or covered areas
- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
- Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
If you go...
Etihad Airways flies from Abu Dhabi to Kuala Lumpur, from about Dh3,600. Air Asia currently flies from Kuala Lumpur to Terengganu, with Berjaya Hotels & Resorts planning to launch direct chartered flights to Redang Island in the near future. Rooms at The Taaras Beach and Spa Resort start from 680RM (Dh597).
