With the parliamentary election over in Lebanon, the country will have to focus on three broad objectives. First, forming a government. Second, preparing for the presidential election in September or October. And third, moving forward on essential economic reforms to alleviate the suffering of the population. However, the election results may well indefinitely hinder the achievement of these objectives.
The first priority will be to form a new government. Under normal circumstances, this should not pose a major challenge, since the government should be in power only until the presidential election. However, if there is no consensus around the next head of state and Lebanon enters a presidential vacuum, the government will take on presidential powers and may last far longer than expected. That is why negotiations over its formation are bound to be highly divisive.
The question of who will succeed President Michel Aoun is also contentious. Until the parliamentary election, the two front-runners were Gebran Bassil, Mr Aoun’s son-in-law, and Suleiman Franjieh, a politician from northern Lebanon, whose grandfather was president from 1970 until 1976. However, the largest Christian bloc post-elections will be controlled by the Lebanese Forces, whose leader Samir Geagea also has presidential ambitions and who will strongly contest Mr Bassil and Mr Franjieh.
A major factor that will help define the period ahead is regional calculations
Mr Bassil, who heads the Free Patriotic Movement, lost ground in the legislative election, while the list backed by Mr Franjieh did relatively poorly. Neither man, therefore, will be able to credibly make the case that he is the most legitimate Maronite Christian candidate for the presidency. The fact that Hezbollah strenuously opposes Mr Geagea suggests there will be no easy agreement on a successor to Mr Aoun, and the outcome may be a long political void, unless a compromise can be reached.
The election results suggest that two broad blocs will emerge in Parliament – one led by the Lebanese Forces, with its allies, particularly from the Sunni community; and a Hezbollah-led coalition, formed with the Aounists. This may make for a period of stalemate ahead, because of Lebanon’s widening polarisation.
All this will have a fundamental, and very negative, bearing on economic reforms, which have not progressed since the economy collapsed in 2019. Yet, with economic indicators continuing to deteriorate and the World Bank predicting zero growth in 2022, Lebanon cannot afford to waste more time.
A report this month by the UN special envoy on poverty, Olivier de Schutter, accused the government and the central bank of human rights violations in impoverishing the population. The report said that Lebanese officials had “a sense of impunity", and appeared to be living “in a fantasy land".
Recently, the Lebanese government and the International Monetary Fund agreed to what is known as a staff agreement, in which the IMF said it would provide $3-4 billion to Lebanon if the country implemented required economic reforms and an audit of the banking sector. Yet, continued factionalism has hindered progress.
If political divisions are exacerbated in the coming months, a final agreement over an IMF-led reform programme will be highly improbable this year. What this would mean is that in the best-case scenario, Lebanon could begin focusing on economic priorities only after a new president comes to office, whenever that occurs.
What is unfortunate in this regard is that the government has reportedly advanced in its economic plan to take Lebanon out of its crisis. Recently, Deputy Prime Minister Saadeh Al-Shami, who is playing a key role in negotiations with the IMF, stated that the technical aspects of banking sector reform were completed. While this is good news, several more months of continuing deadlock could have a disastrous impact on the well-being of the Lebanese, and on banks in particular.
Finally, a major factor that will help define the period ahead is regional calculations. A number of Arab states have shown a renewed momentum in trying to contain Hezbollah’s power in Lebanon, which has made the party uneasy. This mood will not have been helped by the gains made by the Lebanese Forces in the election. The mainly Christian party has close ties with Saudi Arabia, which Hezbollah sees as a threat.
As the Arab states, especially the Gulf states, reinforce their stakes in Lebanon, this could lead to one of two possible outcomes: a struggle for influence with Iran in the country that is unlikely to come out with a clear winner. This can potentially bring about an eventual agreement to share influence. Alternatively, Hezbollah and Iran might try in some way to reimpose their hegemony. But this would be risky, as the strength of the party’s cross-sectarian alliances have been eroded.
The most likely outcome is that Lebanon will remain at a standstill in the coming months, and perhaps even beyond that, as the two broad alignments neutralise each other in Parliament. Neither side will be able to overcome the other, and both sides will want to avoid a civil war. Meanwhile, the Lebanese will continue to suffer as their political parties pursue clashing agendas, with little concern for the population.
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
How to register as a donor
1) Organ donors can register on the Hayat app, run by the Ministry of Health and Prevention
2) There are about 11,000 patients in the country in need of organ transplants
3) People must be over 21. Emiratis and residents can register.
4) The campaign uses the hashtag #donate_hope
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
RESULT
Leeds United 1 Manchester City 1
Leeds: Rodrigo (59')
Man City: Sterling (17')
Man of the Match: Rodrigo Moreno (Leeds)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
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Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
The specs: 2018 BMW R nineT Scrambler
Price, base / as tested Dh57,000
Engine 1,170cc air/oil-cooled flat twin four-stroke engine
Transmission Six-speed gearbox
Power 110hp) @ 7,750rpm
Torque 116Nm @ 6,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 5.3L / 100km
Dark Souls: Remastered
Developer: From Software (remaster by QLOC)
Publisher: Namco Bandai
Price: Dh199
BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega
Director: Tim Burton
Rating: 3/5
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
How to improve Arabic reading in early years
One 45-minute class per week in Standard Arabic is not sufficient
The goal should be for grade 1 and 2 students to become fluent readers
Subjects like technology, social studies, science can be taught in later grades
Grade 1 curricula should include oral instruction in Standard Arabic
First graders must regularly practice individual letters and combinations
Time should be slotted in class to read longer passages in early grades
Improve the appearance of textbooks
Revision of curriculum should be undertaken as per research findings
Conjugations of most common verb forms should be taught
Systematic learning of Standard Arabic grammar
World Cup League Two
Results
Oman beat Nepal by 18 runs
Oman beat United States by six wickets
Nepal beat United States by 35 runs
Oman beat Nepal by eight wickets
Fixtures
Tuesday, Oman v United States
Wednesday, Nepal v United States
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
SQUADS
UAE
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Mohamed Usman (vice-captain), Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Imran Haider, Tahir Mughal, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed, Fahad Nawaz, Abdul Shakoor, Sultan Ahmed, CP Rizwan
Nepal
Paras Khadka (captain), Gyanendra Malla, Dipendra Singh Airee, Pradeep Airee, Binod Bhandari, Avinash Bohara, Sundeep Jora, Sompal Kami, Karan KC, Rohit Paudel, Sandeep Lamichhane, Lalit Rajbanshi, Basant Regmi, Pawan Sarraf, Bhim Sharki, Aarif Sheikh
Results
3pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (Dirt) 1,400m, Winner: Lancienegaboulevard, Adrie de Vries (jockey), Fawzi Nass (trainer).
3.35pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (Turf) 1,600m, Winner: Al Mukhtar Star, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass.
4.10pm: Handicap Dh165,000 (D) 2,000m, Winner: Gundogdu, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer.
4.45pm: Handicap Dh185,000 (T) 1,200m, Winner: Speedy Move, Sean Kirrane, Satish Seemar.
5.20pm: Handicap Dh185,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Moqarrar, Dane O’Neill, Erwan Charpy.
5.55pm: Handicap Dh175,000 (T) 1,800m, Winner: Dolman, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
Film: In Syria
Dir: Philippe Van Leeuw
Starring: Hiam Abbass, Diamand Bo Abboud, Mohsen Abbas and Juliette Navis
Verdict: Four stars
PFA Team of the Year: David de Gea, Kyle Walker, Jan Vertonghen, Nicolas Otamendi, Marcos Alonso, David Silva, Kevin De Bruyne, Christian Eriksen, Harry Kane, Mohamed Salah, Sergio Aguero
