The Lebanon election will bring positive change – just not in 2022

For weeks now, conversations in Lebanon have largely centred around the parliamentary election on Sunday. "Whom to vote for?" "To vote or not to vote?" "Will there be change?" "No, there is no hope – the same old crowd will win again." More than two years after nationwide, anti-government protests failed to bring about any meaningful change in the economically crippled and politically dysfunctional country, ordinary Lebanese seem resigned to "business as usual", even after the vote is finished. The election is the first since the onset of a financial and banking crisis that has left a majority of the country in poverty. It is also the first since the Beirut Port blast in August 2020, which killed more than 200 civilians, and for which few have so far been held accountable. One of the primary reasons for the widespread disenchantment is political entrenchment. People are fed up with the various factions that have come to dominate Lebanese politics since the end of the 1975-1990 Civil War. The country's "confessional" political system, established after the Taif Agreement was signed by warring parties in 1990, divides power among Christians and Sunni and Shiite Muslims, as well as others, in both the executive and in Parliament. Over the years, this system has given the established parties and their leaders – particularly those with large war chests and considerable influence over their communities – an almost guaranteed return to power. And so, politics in the country has, for the most part, been dominated by the Sunni Future Movement, helmed by the Hariri family, the Shiite blocs comprised of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, and the Christian-led Free Patriotic Movement and Kataeb Party. For many Lebanese across a wide cross-section of society, leaders of these blocs and others do not represent them, for they have run the national economy to the ground and turned Lebanon into something of a failed state. There are undoubtedly new faces contesting in this election. Some of them are activists who came together during the 2019 protests and united people, irrespective of sect or social class. Their participation was an unprecedented moment in Lebanon’s recent sectarian history. As a result, they have generated a fair amount of buzz among the electorate. The interest is particularly high among the diaspora, including the 100,000 or so who have reportedly cast their vote in advance from abroad. And yet, the overarching sentiment among voters is that of cynicism. This is because, as per the confessional system, they can vote only for the representatives of the sects to which they belong. This is especially frustrating, as the past two years have been the most difficult for Lebanon. So difficult that many say that even the Civil War era presented fewer economic challenges. Indeed, Lebanon's gross domestic product has plunged to an estimated $20.5 billion last year from about $55bn in 2018. Describing it as a degree of contraction of the kind usually associated with conflicts, the World Bank has ranked Lebanon’s collapse as one of the worst globally since the middle of the 19th century. Furthermore, the Lebanese pound has lost more than 90 per cent of its value, which has driven up costs. The country is more reliant on imports than ever. One particularly stark example of disaffection lies within the Sunni communities living in north-western Lebanon. They have been left rudderless after the recent retirement of former prime minister Saad Hariri from politics. Mr Hariri’s exit from the political landscape has left the country without a once-powerful counterweight to Hezbollah’s influence, which extends into the Christian-led parties. Mr Hariri’s supporters, and the Sunni community in general, worry that this void will only make the Iranian-backed Hezbollah even more dominant. As much as Lebanese people aspiring for a better country want to see change happen quickly, the opposition parties don’t have the influence or the finances to compete with the entrenched groups. Opposition unity has also been lacking. All things considered, however, there is still scope for optimism. Change, after all, takes time. And it needs to start somewhere. Ultimately, Lebanon's strength lies in the public. A country that ranks in the top 100 on the global human development index and seventh in the Arab world has young, dynamic and aspirational citizens, and an active civil society. Their efforts at bringing about change is unlikely to bear fruit in this election. But there can be little doubt it will happen in due course of time.