Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
May 08, 2022
The Ukraine war is being waged in one corner of Europe, but as the conflict drags on, its ramifications are becoming increasingly widespread and multidimensional in nature.
This is unsurprising, given that great power competition between the US and Russia is at play here. And some of this competition is involving two mutual adversaries in the Middle East: Iran and Israel.
The US administration under Joe Biden thinks it can achieve a masterstroke based on two objectives. First was to persuade Israel to go from being a neutral party in the Ukraine war to joining the so-called western alliance against Russia. This it seems to have achieved. Second is to entice Iran out of Russia’s orbit by promising to lift sanctions, remove the all-powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from its terror list, and open up European markets to its oil at high prices.
As the EU considers following in the US’s steps to reject Russian oil as a means to punish Moscow for its role in the Ukraine war, it is looking for other energy suppliers. Iran, currently sanctioned for its nuclear programme, is being viewed as an alternative source.
The Iranian regime understands the value of its oil in the greater conflict between the West and Russia
The Iranian regime understands the value of its oil in the greater conflict between the West and Russia. It might, therefore, be willing to play its cards pragmatically with the long-term view of advancing its ideological and strategic objectives.
The global powers have been in on-again-off-again talks with Tehran to re-sign the 2015 nuclear deal, which will be key to the West lifting sanctions against Iran. If backchannel talks involving Biden administration officials in Washington result in the lifting of key oil-related sanctions – thereby providing Europe with billions of dollars’ worth of energy – then the Iranian regime could be ready to pivot to the West.
With Moscow and Tehran being traditional allies, questions are being asked as to how a US-Iran rapprochement will be received in the Kremlin. Will Moscow give its blessing to a renegotiated settlement on Iran’s nuclear programme? Or will it bank on the adversarial nature of Iran’s relations with Israel to drive a wedge in the still evolving US-led alliance against Russia?
There has been a gradual deterioration in Russia-Israel relations in recent weeks, which is being linked to the Ukraine conflict, seeing as Israel is providing advanced weaponry to Ukraine. But tensions between the two countries go back further, when Israeli military operations inside neighbouring Syria became a source of discomfort to the Assad regime-backed Russian armed forces stationed at a base in Hmeimim.
Given the fluid nature of international relations, Tehran is carefully considering its next series of moves to ensure its interests will be served. It undoubtedly stands to benefit from all circumstances, from the Ukraine war to the Russian-Israeli falling-out and the Biden administration’s stated objective of securing a nuclear deal with Tehran to the European powers’ apparent willingness to buy its oil.
But would Moscow countenance Tehran’s possible drift away, should the above scenario materialise?
Technicians work at the Arak heavy water reactor's secondary circuit in 2019. AP Photo
There are those who believe that Iran may find ways to circumvent the potential oil agreements, if and when they become reality, and still help Moscow in various ways behind the scenes. Others see it more simply: that Russia is better off approving the nuclear talks in Vienna, so that it can continue to appear as a global player and not just a pariah, which it risks becoming as the Ukraine war continues. Moscow will be smart to send a message to Washington that it is ready for a grand bargain of sorts for the sake of world peace.
While it is yet uncertain how Iran or Russia will play their cards, American politics itself could come in the way. This is in the context of the two bills that the US Senate passed last week.
Sixty-two of the 100 senators, including 16 Democrats, voted in favour of a bill put forward by James Lankford to bar the Biden administration from removing the all-powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the US terror list – a key demand made by Tehran. Eighty-six senators approved another bill, sponsored by Ted Cruz, that would prevent the White House from rolling back sanctions on the IRGC and the Central Bank of Iran.
Through these bills, the US Congress has essentially warned President Joe Biden of the dangers of acceding to Tehran’s demands for the sake of reviving the nuclear deal – especially if it comes at the cost of ignoring Iran’s destabilising activities in the Middle East. And while Mr Lankford’s bill is non-binding, it is important to note that supporters of the Biden administration, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, have joined those legislators angry at the concessions it is seen to be offering Iran.
What bargains and accords is the Biden administration working on to guarantee a buy-in from both Iran and Israel? The devil will be in the details.
The Biden team’s priority right now is to defeat Russia in Ukraine and beyond. It is rallying friends and foes in a game it sees as strategic but is in fact tactical. What is comes with are long-term strategic risks not just for the Middle East but also for American interests.
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
