Soldiers from the Finnish Defence Forces operate the Tampella, a towed field gun, as they participate in the international military exercise in Norway. AFP
Soldiers from the Finnish Defence Forces operate the Tampella, a towed field gun, as they participate in the international military exercise in Norway. AFP
Soldiers from the Finnish Defence Forces operate the Tampella, a towed field gun, as they participate in the international military exercise in Norway. AFP
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
April 17, 2022
As the nearly two-month-long conflict in Ukraine rages on, a number of triggers exist that could lead to a nuclear “third world war” in Europe. Nato’s further expansion on the continent, thereby posing a further threat to Russian security, could amount to one such trigger.
In fact it is Russian fears about Ukraine’s possible induction into the US-led western security umbrella that led to war in that country in the first place.
One will recall Moscow had demanded a written guarantee last December that Ukraine, formerly an entity within the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union thereafter before becoming independent in 1991, will not seek membership of Nato. But the 30-member alliance dismissed its demands and ultimatums, which ended up becoming the spark that lit the fire.
Today, however, Nato could conceivably add Finland and Sweden to its club, prospects that are just as worrying for the Kremlin.
Finland, which shares a 1,340-kilometre-long border with Russia, will next week explore the option of joining Nato when its parliament receives an intelligence briefing. Prime Minister Sanna Marin says Finland intends to make a decision by mid-summer. Sweden may not advance towards membership at the same pace as Finland, but it appears ready to join the alliance because of the war.
'An empty shot in the air' is how Medvedev described the news coming out of Sweden and Finland
Fears about a possible nuclear conflict have been raised across the continent, particularly after recent statements from former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev and US intelligence chief William Burns.
“An empty shot in the air” is how Mr Medvedev last week described the news coming out of Finland and Sweden. The Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council hinted that, as a result, Moscow will consider deploying nuclear weapons out of Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave in the Baltic region that is sandwiched between Lithuania to its north and Poland to its south but, crucially for Sweden, lies a little more than 500km from its capital Stockholm.
Meanwhile, Poland, already a Nato member, is considering allowing the US to deploy nuclear weapons on its soil, prompting a Russian warning that it would respond with like-for-like measures.
Mr Burns, meanwhile, warned that a desperate Kremlin might use “tactical nukes” in Ukraine following what he described as military “setbacks” for Russia. “None of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons or low-yield nuclear weapons,” the CIA Director said. “Nato would intervene militarily on the ground in Ukraine in the course of this conflict.”
He, however, added that the Biden administration cares deeply about “avoiding a third world war – and about avoiding a threshold in which, you know, nuclear conflict becomes possible”.
In their statements, spokespersons for the US and Russian governments made clear the diametrical contradiction of their countries’ assessments of the expansion of Nato membership and its consequences. While the Americans see it as fostering peace and stability in Europe, the Russians see it as a provocative and destabilising move.
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council, has sent a warning to Finland and Sweden. Reuters
CIA Director William Burns believes Russia is capable of using tactical nuclear weapons in the war. Reuters
As to why Moscow fears Nato’s expansion more than three decades after the Cold War ended, the answer lies in the events that unfolded after the Soviet Union collapsed. One such development was former president Mikhail Gorbachev’s failure – at least in the eyes of Russia’s elites today – to seek written guarantees from Nato leaders that the alliance will not expand into Eastern Europe by adding countries that were previously in the Soviet orbit, which it did in the intervening years.
Mr Gorbachev has in the past insisted that western leaders had assured him of no expansion, but he conceded no written guarantees had been provided.
Fast forward to 2022 and Russia, it seems, is seeking to push back against what it views to be an egregious act by the West.
With last week’s statement, Mr Medvedev effectively raised the level of the nuclear threat in Europe. Beyond that, he said, Moscow will significantly shore up its territorial and naval forces, as well as air defences, in the Gulf of Finland. He added that there would not be any "nuclear-free status of the Baltic" and that Russia would seek to restore balance by, in his words, rightfully deploying nuclear weapons in the region. While these remarks were directed at Finland and Sweden, the message will have been loud and clear in the three former Soviet republics in the Baltic region – Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia – as well.
The situation in Ukraine, meanwhile, is getting more dangerous. It is set to escalate further as more advanced weaponry arrives from the West, which Russia could intercept and destroy. Amid the lack of progress in negotiations between the two countries, and increased Ukrainian military self-confidence, fighting seems to have escalated around Kyiv once again, and not just in the Donbas region in the country’s east, which Moscow has sought to liberate.
Amid these developments, it is worth pointing out that the Biden administration is showing little interest in cooling the temperatures with the Kremlin. It continues to mobilise sanctions against Russia and block any support for its leadership anywhere in the world.
Determined to exclude Russia from the G20 summit this fall, the administration has put pressure on the host nation Indonesia to disinvite Moscow. Some parties are trying to persuade Washington to make the distinction between excluding Russia and disinviting its leadership from the G20 summit to avoid further antagonising the Russian people. But so far, it is not clear whether US President Joe Biden will accept such a compromise.
Mr Biden, who has been gradually ratcheting up tensions with Moscow, has made a number of accusations against Russian President Vladimir Putin, including describing him as a thug. He has also accused the Russian army of genocide inside Ukraine. While he made the statement in personal capacity, the question being asked is whether the President may using the pretext of what he characterises as “genocide” to intervene directly in Ukraine in the future.
As the temperatures continue to simmer over the war, it isn’t at all surprising, then, that Europe and the world at large are deeply worried about nuclear escalation.
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany - At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people - Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed - Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest - He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
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1: Commit to countering all types of terrorism and extremism in all their manifestations
2: Denounce violence and the rhetoric of hatred
3: Adhere to the full compliance with the Riyadh accord of 2014 and the subsequent meeting and executive procedures approved in 2014 by the GCC
4: Comply with all recommendations of the Summit between the US and Muslim countries held in May 2017 in Saudi Arabia.
5: Refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of countries and of supporting rogue entities.
6: Carry out the responsibility of all the countries with the international community to counter all manifestations of extremism and terrorism that threaten international peace and security
South Africa
Faf du Plessis (captain), Dean Elgar, Aiden Markram, Hashim Amla, AB de Villiers, Quinton de Kock (wkt), Vernon Philander, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Morne Morkel, Lungi Ngidi.
2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture
3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all
5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all
7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all
8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all
9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialisation and foster innovation
10. Reduce inequality within and among countries
11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns
13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its effects
14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss
16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels
17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalise the global partnership for sustainable development
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
UAE SQUAD
Ahmed Raza (Captain), Rohan Mustafa, Jonathan Figy, CP Rizwan, Junaid Siddique, Mohammad Usman, Basil Hameed, Zawar Farid, Vriitya Aravind (WK), Waheed Ahmed, Karthik Meiyappan, Zahoor Khan, Darius D'Silva, Chirag Suri
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;
- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,
- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.
Match info
Australia 580 Pakistan 240 and 335
Result: Australia win by an innings and five runs
Pearls on a Branch: Oral Tales
Najlaa Khoury, Archipelago Books
