Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
March 27, 2022
The strategic compass that Nato leaders have been using in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine still lacks precision. The same could be said for Moscow’s own compass, too.
The threat of weapons of mass destruction, including chemical weapons, are part of the calculus of all sides. US President Joe Biden said explicitly that in the event Russia deploys chemical weapons, then the US would respond. But the question remains – respond how, and where?
The Nato summit this week avoided using the traditional discourse of “red lines”, fearing implications not just in terms of Russian retaliation, but also due to awareness that any cost will be higher for the European states.
One of the key components of Nato’s strategic compass, according to Mr Biden, is the unprecedented unity in the ranks of the alliance. Beyond simple messaging about solidarity, practical steps are being taken to signal a possible expansion of Nato membership, increase military budgets for existing members and deploy more advanced weapons across Eastern Europe as well as Ukraine.
Yet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains sceptical of Nato. To him, its achievements may be too little too late, and have come only from the ruins of Ukraine. “We are grateful…but”, Zelensky has said repeatedly. The Ukraine war is increasingly becoming a proxy battle between Russia and Nato, in which the latter refuses to intervene directly.
Mr Zelenskyy had clearly assumed Ukraine’s friendship with Nato would bring with it western protection from Russia. Instead, he is now caught in a Russian war on Ukraine that could lead to its official partition or complete disintegration, which he had probably never anticipated.
The morale of the Ukrainian people, army and volunteers remains high in contrast with the performance of Russian troops and equipment. There is global solidarity with Ukraine and largely Western outrage over Russia’s actions. But ultimately, Ukraine’s leaders may have averted this dark fate if they had not pursued so strongly an orientation towards Nato and the West.
The Nato summit this week avoided the traditional rhetoric of 'red lines'
Some may say – and rightly so – this is Ukraine’s sovereign right, and that it is up to the Ukrainian people to decide whether they face Westward or not. But the question Ukraine must now grapple with is whether such lofty values as self-determination truly do outweigh other geopolitical and strategic concerns. Recall how Iraq was transformed in the name of democracy from a key state in the regional equation to a fragmented and violated country, now dominated by sectarianism and Iranian hegemonic schemes. The point here is not to compare Ukraine and Iraq, but to recall how democracy, values and freedoms can be used to justify the destruction of states, deliberately…or otherwise.
None of this is to say that Russia has not miscalculated by launching its war in Ukraine. Moscow still believes that a strategy of further escalation with the West will force the US and the European powers to backtrack. The problem with escalation between rival great powers, however, is that both sides usually prefer to ratchet things up rather than back down.
The Nato and EU summit resolutions on Thursday seemed, of course, on the surface to be non-escalatory. Western leaders did not endorse the no-fly zone demanded by Mr Zelenskyy, which could have implicated Nato directly in the Ukraine conflict. They also did not draw lines in the sand or identify red lines, which is somewhat reassuring. However, these summits’ decisions are transitional, not final. In other words, while moves have been made to avoid a global crisis for now, the overall direction of confrontation rather than reconciliation is moving full steam ahead.
And while the Nato summit excluded the option of direct military confrontation with Russia, it has hinted at allowing states like Poland to take action if deemed necessary. The summit also approved a huge military aid package to Ukraine. But Russia is unlikely to sit idly by as Nato military aid flows into Ukraine. It has already indicated that it could attempt to destroy these weapons as they enter Ukrainian territory, raising risks of further confrontation.
The summits in Brussels also approved new sanctions aimed at preventing Russia from accessing its huge gold reserves, and Russia, in turn has weaponised its gas exports. Russian President Vladimir Putin has given energy giant Gazprom just one week to reach a deal with European nations that rely on Russian gas, led by Germany, Italy, Austria, and Hungary. Otherwise, Moscow could cut off gas supplies to these countries, some of which import up to 40 per cent of their needs from Russia.
Despite attempts by Turkey to mediate a solution between Russia and Ukraine and, by extension, the rest of Europe, so far, no such solution is on the horizon. So Russia's likely path forward until then is to step up its military operations in Ukraine.
Russia has miscalculated in this war, but Nato's calculations may not be much better. Despite Mr Biden's boasts of Nato unity, the fact that all of this escalation poses huge risks to the entire world economy will have a great impact on US and European public opinion. It is true that the West is more united than it has been in a long time, but it is an open question whether the costs of getting it there are worth it.
Kopa Trophy (Best player under 21 – Men’s) Lamine Yamal (Barcelona / Spain)
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Women’s Coach of the Year Sarina Wiegman (England)
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India lead by 346 runs with 5 wickets remaining
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2018 World Cup qualifying: Asia fourth round play-off first leg
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Important questions to consider
1. Where on the plane does my pet travel?
There are different types of travel available for pets:
Manifest cargo
Excess luggage in the hold
Excess luggage in the cabin
Each option is safe. The feasibility of each option is based on the size and breed of your pet, the airline they are traveling on and country they are travelling to.
2. What is the difference between my pet traveling as manifest cargo or as excess luggage?
If traveling as manifest cargo, your pet is traveling in the front hold of the plane and can travel with or without you being on the same plane. The cost of your pets travel is based on volumetric weight, in other words, the size of their travel crate.
If traveling as excess luggage, your pet will be in the rear hold of the plane and must be traveling under the ticket of a human passenger. The cost of your pets travel is based on the actual (combined) weight of your pet in their crate.
3. What happens when my pet arrives in the country they are traveling to?
As soon as the flight arrives, your pet will be taken from the plane straight to the airport terminal.
If your pet is traveling as excess luggage, they will taken to the oversized luggage area in the arrival hall. Once you clear passport control, you will be able to collect them at the same time as your normal luggage. As you exit the airport via the ‘something to declare’ customs channel you will be asked to present your pets travel paperwork to the customs official and / or the vet on duty.
If your pet is traveling as manifest cargo, they will be taken to the Animal Reception Centre. There, their documentation will be reviewed by the staff of the ARC to ensure all is in order. At the same time, relevant customs formalities will be completed by staff based at the arriving airport.
4. How long does the travel paperwork and other travel preparations take?
This depends entirely on the location that your pet is traveling to. Your pet relocation compnay will provide you with an accurate timeline of how long the relevant preparations will take and at what point in the process the various steps must be taken.
In some cases they can get your pet ‘travel ready’ in a few days. In others it can be up to six months or more.
5. What vaccinations does my pet need to travel?
Regardless of where your pet is traveling, they will need certain vaccinations. The exact vaccinations they need are entirely dependent on the location they are traveling to. The one vaccination that is mandatory for every country your pet may travel to is a rabies vaccination.
Other vaccinations may also be necessary. These will be advised to you as relevant. In every situation, it is essential to keep your vaccinations current and to not miss a due date, even by one day. To do so could severely hinder your pets travel plans.
