Moscow, it seems, believed that the war would help Russia in mobilising its allies into forming an anti-western bloc. Such a thing has failed to materialise. Worse, from the Kremlin's viewpoint, the West has broadly stood together and applied some of the most stringent sanctions that, within days, have crippled the Russian economy.
A wedge has emerged between Russia and its ally Iran, with the Ukraine war having an impact on the talks being held in Vienna to revive the 2015 nuclear deal between the global powers and Tehran. Until recently, Moscow was the main advocate of Iranian interests in Vienna. Today, Tehran is reportedly irked by Moscow's move to link the war to the negotiations, which Iran wants to conclude as quickly as possible so that western powers lift their sanctions on its economy.
The Ukraine crisis has added a vital element to the equation: Iran's oil and gas, which could serve as additional resources in the international markets after the US banned its oil and gas imports from Moscow. The Biden administration has initiated talks with Iran in this regard, with the latter's response being that it is ready to export its resources as soon as the aforementioned sanctions are lifted. It is, effectively, calling on Washington to conclude the Vienna talks quickly.
The Ukraine crisis could lead to a reset in US-Gulf relations
The Biden administration as well as governments in key European countries, too, are seeking to seal the deal with Iran. The former, because it needs a victory before this year's midterm election; the latter, because it seeks alternative energy suppliers as it attempts to wean itself from Russian hydrocarbons.
Yet, European countries aren't speaking with one voice on the matter. Germany, Hungary, Italy and the Netherlands are among those that are heavily reliant on Russian energy and for whom it will take months to transition away from Moscow's supplies. The EU, meanwhile, is seeking to reduce reliance on traditional energy sources to one third of the current level by the end of 2022.
While Iran potentially stands to benefit from this move, Russian negotiators are said to have sought a guarantee from the US that it will not sanction Iran in the future; Moscow's thinking seems to be that preventing future sanctions on Iran would help Russia sell its oil through Iran.
It appears that Iran has, for now, determined that its interests lie with the US and Europe, although it is clear it won't forgo its strategic alliance with Russia. This pragmatic approach, Tehran seems to believe, will help its regime to better pursue its strategic objectives.
IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi, left, and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian shake hands prior to their meeting in Tehran on Saturday. AP Photo
How this affects security in the Middle East, it's too early to tell. It is likelier than not that Iran will seize the opportunity to finance its regional expansionist projects. Logically, a potential pivot to the West should help to curb its destabilising policies in the region. But it is possible that the Iranian regime and the Biden administration will sign accords that end up legitimising Tehran's gains in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.
China, Russia's other ally, has also hedged rather than going all-out in its support for the Ukraine war. Its equation with Kyiv means that peace in the region is in Beijing's interests. China has made it clear to the West that it does not appreciate Nato's eastward expansion over the past three decades. It has also abstained in the UN votes to deplore Russia's operations inside Ukraine, but it has not thrown its wholehearted support behind Moscow either. And it's unlikely it will risk being sanctioned by the West for the sake of showing solidarity with Russia.
Even Venezuela, which for years has pushed back against American influence in South America, is now responding positively to recent US efforts to build ties. With the Biden administration eyeing Venezuela's large energy reserves, it might consider lifting sanctions on Caracas as well as ending its international isolation.
The US isn't just reaching out to its so-called adversaries for solidarity and energy. The Biden administration is attempting to improve tense relations with Washington's allies in the Gulf, too.
US-Gulf relations have been strained slightly by the current administration's policies in the Middle East, including its going out of the way to reset its equation with Iran, which poses a security threat to the region at large, and its decision to remove Yemen's Houthi rebels from its terror list last year. While the US is considering putting them back on the list following the Houthis' attacks on Abu Dhabi earlier this year, no action has yet been taken.
But the Ukraine crisis could lead to a reset in relations, especially bearing in mind that the Gulf states have deepened their respective ties with China and Russia in recent years. A reset, together with an increase in oil prices, could further increase these countries' influence in international decision-making process. They are already responding to the Ukraine war and its fall-out with great maturity and pragmatism – and are, therefore, likely to consider renewing their respective bilateral relations with the US.
Even a few weeks ago, few could have predicted that the world order would be reshaped in so drastic a manner so quickly. But with the war unlikely to end anytime soon, as Russian forces continue to double down inside Ukraine, we can expect still more twists in the tale.
Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.
2) Smishing
The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
3) Vishing
The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
4) SIM swap
Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
5) Identity theft
Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
6) Prize scams
Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
The biog
Favourite pet: cats. She has two: Eva and Bito
Favourite city: Cape Town, South Africa
Hobby: Running. "I like to think I’m artsy but I’m not".
Favourite move: Romantic comedies, specifically Return to me. "I cry every time".
Date and venue Friday and Saturday, ICC Academy, Dubai Sports City
Time Matches start at 9am
Groups
A Blighty Ducks, Darjeeling Colts, Darjeeling Social, Dubai Wombats; B Darjeeling Veterans, Kuwait Casuals, Loose Cannons, Savannah Lions; C Awali Taverners, Darjeeling, Dromedary, Darjeeling Good Eggs
What is an FTO Designation?
FTO designations impose immigration restrictions on members of the organisation simply by virtue of their membership and triggers a criminal prohibition on knowingly providing material support or resources to the designated organisation as well as asset freezes.
It is a crime for a person in the United States or subject to the jurisdiction of the United States to knowingly provide “material support or resources” to or receive military-type training from or on behalf of a designated FTO.
Representatives and members of a designated FTO, if they are aliens, are inadmissible to and, in certain circumstances removable from, the United States.
Except as authorised by the Secretary of the Treasury, any US financial institution that becomes aware that it has possession of or control over funds in which an FTO or its agent has an interest must retain possession of or control over the funds and report the funds to the Treasury Department.
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened. He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia. Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”. Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities. Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids. Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.
