Two weeks into the war in Ukraine, Turkey appears to have converted its diplomatic tightrope walk into a minor coup: the combatants have accepted Ankara's long-standing offer to mediate and the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers are set to meet for peace talks on Thursday on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomatic Forum.
Moscow's demands of Kyiv are said to be considerable – swearing off Nato and EU membership and rubber-stamping the handover of Crimea and the occupied regions of eastern Ukraine, for starters – so a peace deal seems unlikely for now.
But it's worth taking a closer look at how Turkey got here: for every embrace of Ukraine and its Nato allies, Ankara has also nodded in the direction of Moscow.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called the Russian invasion "unacceptable", vowed to stand by Ukraine and urged Nato to take "a more decisive step". Yet, he's also stressed the importance of preserving ties with Moscow and last week approved a trade deal with Belarus, a key Russian ally.
Fence-sitting Turkey remains on an island of its own making
When the Council of Europe voted to suspend Russia's membership, Turkey abstained. Then Ankara turned around and sponsored a UN motion to condemn the aggression against Ukraine.
Turkey's geopolitical two-step extends to the high seas. Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, Turkey controls maritime access to the Black Sea via the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits, and can during wartime halt nearly all traffic. Hours after Russian troops entered Ukraine, Kyiv urged Ankara to do just that.
A few days later, Turkey declared the conflict a war and vowed to block warships. In the days ahead, Ankara is likely to limit the passage of naval vessels, but, as per Montreux, it cannot bar Russian vessels coming from the Mediterranean from entering the Black Sea to return to their home bases.
Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones have played a key role in Ukraine's staunch defence, keeping Russia from controlling the skies and helping slow the nearly 65-kilometre-long Russian convoy inching its way towards Kyiv. Videos of devastating Bayraktar strikes have been widely shared online and the drones are fast attaining legendary status. A lemur born in the Kyiv zoo last week and a puppy born to the Kyiv police canine unit have been named Bayraktar, and Ukraine's ground forces produced a catchy song celebrating the drones' achievements.
Back home, meanwhile, Turkey has sought to minimise their impact. "When we sold Bayraktars, we didn't know they would be used like this," Turkish billionaire Ethem Sancak, a former journalist who shares a hometown with Mr Erdogan's wife and is said to be close to the President, said last week. "We're allies with Russia."
Some pro-government pundits have lately been hewing to the Russian line, that Ukraine is run by neo-Nazis, and ramping up the anti-western rhetoric, blaming Nato for the conflict.
As recently detailed in this column, Ankara's anti-western stance is akin to Kyiv's anti-Russian stance, as these emerging democracies move to assert greater independence. But right now, criticising the West reads much like standing against Ukraine and in support of Russia.
As in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, Turkey has again refrained from joining western sanctions against Moscow. Yet, while this may help Ankara avoid direct punishment from Moscow, even Mr Erdogan's supporters concede that Turkey is likely to suffer economically as a result of Russia's sanctions-driven downturn.
Russia supplies one third of Turkey's tourists, 40 per cent of its natural gas and two thirds of its grain imports. It has invested $1.2 billion in Turkey's showcase Akkuyu nuclear plant, to cite just one high-profile project. On a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday, Mr Erdogan is thought to have urged him to end the conflict.
Everyday a broader conflagration seems more likely. Several foreign-listed ships – Estonian, Bangladeshi, Panamanian, Moldovan and Turkish – have already been struck by Russian defences along Ukraine's Black Sea coast.
The US has moved the USS Truman aircraft carrier into the northern Aegean, just south of the Dardanelles, and the US and Poland are said to be in talks to deliver F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, which would require Congressional approval.
On the weekend, Mr Putin said western sanctions on Russia were essentially a declaration of war. If the Russian economy craters and the pressure builds, deeper western involvement may be inevitable. World wars have started over less.
Already the conflict has accomplished the near-impossible and unified Europe. About 20 countries are sending weapons to Ukraine, including stingers from Germany, machine guns from the Czechs, rocket launchers from the Dutch and javelin missiles from Estonia.
But none of those countries recently bought advanced missile systems from Moscow or inaugurated a major pipeline carrying Russian gas. Germany notably cancelled Nord Stream 2, which has since declared bankruptcy, and made the stunning move of allocating an additional $100bn to defence.
Turkey remains on an island of its own making. It has some company – Armenia, India, and Israel have all been similarly non-committal. But none of them is as geographically and economically close to both combatants, or a Nato member. "It isn't possible to abandon Russia or Ukraine," the Turkish leader said last week. "Our challenge is to proceed so that we can resolve this matter without abandoning either of them."
Mr Erdogan, who is set to welcome Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Wednesday and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis on Saturday, has always said he wanted an independent foreign policy. Well, he has got his wish. For the moment it seems a good stance domestically, as eight out of 10 Turks prefer that their country remain neutral in this conflict, according to a new survey by Aksoy Research.
But if Thursday's peace talks fail and the war drags on and escalates, drawing in western powers, there will be no room for strategic ambiguity. One can only hope that the Turkish leader chooses wisely – or even better, never needs to choose at all.
Getting%20there
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Fitness problems in men's tennis
Andy Murray - hip
Novak Djokovic - elbow
Roger Federer - back
Stan Wawrinka - knee
Kei Nishikori - wrist
Marin Cilic - adductor
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
The Details
Kabir Singh
Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series
Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga
Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa
Rating: 2.5/5
More from Neighbourhood Watch
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
BABYLON
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The specs
BMW M8 Competition Coupe
Engine 4.4-litre twin-turbo V8
Power 625hp at 6,000rpm
Torque 750Nm from 1,800-5,800rpm
Gearbox Eight-speed paddleshift auto
Acceleration 0-100kph in 3.2 sec
Top speed 305kph
Fuel economy, combined 10.6L / 100km
Price from Dh700,000 (estimate)
On sale Jan/Feb 2020
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
You might also like to read
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The Outsider
Stephen King, Penguin
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.
The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.
“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.
“Are our systems equipped to handle these kind of life expectancies in the future? If so many people retire at 60, they are going to be in retirement for 43 years – so we need to adapt our retirement age to our changing life expectancy.”
Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.
Mr Abukhater said the challenges of an ageing population, increased life expectancy and some individuals relying solely on their government for financial support in their retirement years will put the system under strain.
“To relieve that pressure, governments need to consider whether it is time to switch to a defined contribution scheme so that individuals can supplement their own future with the help of government support,” he said.
Know your Camel lingo
The bairaq is a competition for the best herd of 50 camels, named for the banner its winner takes home
Namoos - a word of congratulations reserved for falconry competitions, camel races and camel pageants. It best translates as 'the pride of victory' - and for competitors, it is priceless
Asayel camels - sleek, short-haired hound-like racers
Majahim - chocolate-brown camels that can grow to weigh two tonnes. They were only valued for milk until camel pageantry took off in the 1990s
Millions Street - the thoroughfare where camels are led and where white 4x4s throng throughout the festival
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The%20specs
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The biog
DOB: 25/12/92
Marital status: Single
Education: Post-graduate diploma in UAE Diplomacy and External Affairs at the Emirates Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi
Hobbies: I love fencing, I used to fence at the MK Fencing Academy but I want to start again. I also love reading and writing
Lifelong goal: My dream is to be a state minister
Manchester City 4
Otamendi (52) Sterling (59) Stones (67) Brahim Diaz (81)
Real Madrid 1
Oscar (90)
Wayne Rooney's career
Everton (2002-2004)
- Appearances: 48
- Goals: 17
Manchester United (2004-2017)
- Appearances: 496
- Goals: 253
England (2003-)
- Appearances: 119
- Goals: 53
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
RESULTS
6.30pm: Handicap (rated 95-108) US$125,000 2000m (Dirt).
Winner: Don’t Give Up, Gerald Mosse (jockey), Saeed bin Suroor (trainer).
7.05pm: Handicap (95 ) $160,000 2810m (Turf).
Winner: Los Barbados, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass.
7.40pm: Handicap (80-89) $60,000 1600m (D).
Winner: Claim The Roses, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer.
8.15pm: UAE 2000 Guineas Trial (Div-1) Conditions $100,000 1,400m (D)
Winner: Gold Town, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
8.50pm: Cape Verdi Group 2 $200,000 1600m (T).
Winner: Promising Run, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.
9.25pm: UAE 2000 Guineas Conditions $100,000 1,400m (D).
Winner: El Chapo, Luke Morris, Fawzi Nass.
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
FIXTURES
Fixtures for Round 15 (all times UAE)
Friday
Inter Milan v AS Roma (11.45pm)
Saturday
Atalanta v Verona (6pm)
Udinese v Napoli (9pm)
Lazio v Juventus (11.45pm)
Sunday
Lecce v Genoa (3.30pm)
Sassuolo v Cagliari (6pm)
SPAL v Brescia (6pm)
Torino v Fiorentina (6pm)
Sampdoria v Parma (9pm)
Bologna v AC Milan (11.45pm)
INDIA SQUAD
Rohit Sharma (captain), Shikhar Dhawan (vice-captain), KL Rahul, Suresh Raina, Manish Pandey, Dinesh Karthik (wicketkeeper), Deepak Hooda, Washington Sundar, Yuzvendra Chahal, Axar Patel, Vijay Shankar, Shardul Thakur, Jaydev Unadkat, Mohammad Siraj and Rishabh Pant (wicketkeeper)
Engine: 80 kWh four-wheel-drive
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 402bhp
Torque: 760Nm
Price: From Dh280,000
The biog
Age: 59
From: Giza Governorate, Egypt
Family: A daughter, two sons and wife
Favourite tree: Ghaf
Runner up favourite tree: Frankincense
Favourite place on Sir Bani Yas Island: “I love all of Sir Bani Yas. Every spot of Sir Bani Yas, I love it.”
The biog
Favourite films: Casablanca and Lawrence of Arabia
Favourite books: Start with Why by Simon Sinek and Good to be Great by Jim Collins
Favourite dish: Grilled fish
Inspiration: Sheikh Zayed's visionary leadership taught me to embrace new challenges.
Petrarch: Everywhere a Wanderer
Christopher Celenza,
Reaktion Books
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Essentials
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Malaysia Airlines all fly direct from the UAE to Kuala Lumpur and on to Penang from about Dh2,300 return, including taxes.
Where to stay
In Kuala Lumpur, Element is a recently opened, futuristic hotel high up in a Norman Foster-designed skyscraper. Rooms cost from Dh400 per night, including taxes. Hotel Stripes, also in KL, is a great value design hotel, with an infinity rooftop pool. Rooms cost from Dh310, including taxes.
In Penang, Ren i Tang is a boutique b&b in what was once an ancient Chinese Medicine Hall in the centre of Little India. Rooms cost from Dh220, including taxes.
23 Love Lane in Penang is a luxury boutique heritage hotel in a converted mansion, with private tropical gardens. Rooms cost from Dh400, including taxes.
In Langkawi, Temple Tree is a unique architectural villa hotel consisting of antique houses from all across Malaysia. Rooms cost from Dh350, including taxes.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The years Ramadan fell in May
How it works
Each player begins with one of the great empires of history, from Julius Caesar's Rome to Ramses of Egypt, spread over Europe and the Middle East.
Round by round, the player expands their empire. The more land they have, the more money they can take from their coffers for each go.
As unruled land and soldiers are acquired, players must feed them. When a player comes up against land held by another army, they can choose to battle for supremacy.
A dice-based battle system is used and players can get the edge on their enemy with by deploying a renowned hero on the battlefield.
Players that lose battles and land will find their coffers dwindle and troops go hungry. The end goal? Global domination of course.
Read more about the coronavirus
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Zayed Sustainability Prize
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Mercedes-AMG GT 63 S E Performance: the specs
Engine: 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8 plus rear-mounted electric motor
Power: 843hp at N/A rpm
Torque: 1470Nm N/A rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.6L/100km
On sale: October to December
Price: From Dh875,000 (estimate)
