A letter from then UK prime minister Margaret Thatcher to then USSR leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985, as the Soviet Union was entering the endgame of decline and fall, carefully outlined London's recognition that Moscow had as much right to feel secure as its western counterparts.
Tony Brenton, a former UK ambassador to Moscow, cited that missive last week as he surveyed the stakes in the Ukraine-Russia war. The ambassador's reference point of an overarching balance of interests that is decades in the making was dramatically underlined when fighting broke out around Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear energy facilities. As a fire raged around the facility, a 1980s-style scare went around the world on the possibility of a nuclear incident with far-reaching consequences.
A year after the Thatcher letter, the explosion at Ukraine’s Chernobyl plant took place. More than 35 years later, western leaders warned last week that the safety of all of Europe was directly threatened by events at a nuclear facility in that country.
Under international law, civil nuclear power plants and the peaceful development of nuclear technologies are distinct pillars from developing nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, a war involving a nuclear power has revived for many the spectre that the ultimate weapon would be used.
Escalations open the perils of miscalculation, misperception and misjudgement
TikTok is reportedly awash with videos on what to do if armageddon hoves into view. For some, it feels as if the library of Cold War information films on the “four-minute warning” should be given a modern spin. Mr Brenton noted there was an entire body of literature written during the Cold War on dealing with an actor who was not making straightforward calculations. In the first instance, nuclear weapons assume prominence earlier in the crisis than negotiators would assume.
Nuclear deterrence is built on, but not exclusively framed around, the theory of Mutually Assured Destruction. There have been some hot but localised crisis moments during the Cold War in which nuclear strategists were pressed into action. Short-range, low-yield battlefield nuclear weapons are an obvious concern in the Ukraine war. A whole of nuclear weapon fell outside the arms control treaties since the US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019.
Patricia Lewis of the London-based policy institute Chatham House issued a note on the Ukraine war that posited that Nato would respond if nuclear weapons were used in the country. She said this would be on the grounds that the impact of such weapons crosses borders. This is to say nothing of the whole new set of thinking needed for containing and reacting to cyberattack threats that trigger nuclear arsenals or create false flags.
Another academic expert Ward Wilson wrote for the London-based European Leadership Network about a root-and-branch re-examination of the theory of nuclear deterrence.
There are no clear conclusions to be drawn from previous instances of deterrence. The most obvious example is the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, when then US president John F Kennedy threatened to use military force in response to the Soviet Union’s installation of nuclear-armed missiles on the communist-run island less than 800 kilometres from Florida. There is still a split between those historians who say Kennedy was a hawk pushing for retaliation and those who believe he favoured a blockade over retaliation.
There are even doubts in some quarters that then Japanese emperor Hirohito surrendered to the US-led allied forces in 1945 as a result of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The orders given out to Japanese military two days after its surrender cited the Soviet Union entering the war against Japan – not the dropping of the "most cruel bomb" on two of its cities.
There is very little direct experience of the use of the weapon in war. On the other hand, according to Wilson, we can see the results of using artillery and missiles in an effort to break morale of a besieged population because there are plenty of examples of this type of bombing.
The effectiveness of nuclear weapons holds some keys to building adequate deterrence strategy. In the nuclear world, pretty much all there is to go on are tests and, in some senses, scenarios played out in exercises. Russia has ended some of its exercises with a tactical nuclear weapon, but when it comes to deterrence, those examples can be read two ways. Ultimately, there is psychological and emotional guessing that would underpin a nuclear stand-off. Classical deterrence is, however, focused heavily on the role of human judgement.
What if the person is flooded with anger? What if that anger recedes and rationality takes over? Can that equilibrium hold or will the anger come to the surface again? A threat to counter a potential attack might work at one hour but not the next day.
It is already known that escalations open the perils of miscalculation, misperception and misjudgement. There are no right or wrong answers, or at least, it isn’t clear what the right and wrong answers are. There are more likely just good and bad options.
For Mr Brenton, the difference is that the "Vladimir Putin I knew", who was the most single-minded, best-briefed, clear-thinking politicians on the scene, "would not have done this".
The complexity of deterrence, therefore, could not be more starkly challenged than at this moment in history.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Abu Dhabi Card
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 80,000 1,400m
National selection: AF Mohanak
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 90,000 1,400m
National selection: Jayide Al Boraq
6pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 100,000 1,400m
National selection: Rocket Power
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Championship Listed (PA) Dh 180,000 1,600m
National selection: Ihtesham
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 1,600m
National selection: Noof KB
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 80,000 2.200m
National selection: EL Faust
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
The Greatest Royal Rumble card as it stands
The Greatest Royal Rumble card as it stands
50-man Royal Rumble - names entered so far include Braun Strowman, Daniel Bryan, Kurt Angle, Big Show, Kane, Chris Jericho, The New Day and Elias
Universal Championship Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
WWE World Heavyweight ChampionshipAJ Styles (champion) v Shinsuke Nakamura
Intercontinental Championship Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
United States Championship Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
SmackDown Tag Team Championship The Bludgeon Brothers (champions) v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship (currently vacant) Cesaro and Sheamus v Matt Hardy and Bray Wyatt
Casket match The Undertaker v Chris Jericho
Singles match John Cena v Triple H
Cruiserweight Championship Cedric Alexander v tba
Results
57kg quarter-finals
Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) beat Hamed Al Matari (YEM) by points 3-0.
60kg quarter-finals
Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) beat Hyan Aljmyah (SYR) RSC round 2.
63.5kg quarter-finals
Nouredine Samir (UAE) beat Shamlan A Othman (KUW) by points 3-0.
67kg quarter-finals
Mohammed Mardi (UAE) beat Ahmad Ondash (LBN) by points 2-1.
71kg quarter-finals
Ahmad Bahman (UAE) defeated Lalthasanga Lelhchhun (IND) by points 3-0.
Amine El Moatassime (UAE) beat Seyed Kaveh Safakhaneh (IRI) by points 3-0.
81kg quarter-finals
Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Ahmad Hilal (PLE) by points 3-0
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
Company%20profile
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In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Ain Issa camp:
- Established in 2016
- Houses 13,309 people, 2,092 families, 62 per cent children
- Of the adult population, 49 per cent men, 51 per cent women (not including foreigners annexe)
- Most from Deir Ezzor and Raqqa
- 950 foreigners linked to ISIS and their families
- NGO Blumont runs camp management for the UN
- One of the nine official (UN recognised) camps in the region
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
Scores
Day 2
New Zealand 153 & 56-1
Pakistan 227
New Zealand trail by 18 runs with nine wickets remaining
Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha
Starring: Ajay Devgn, Tabu, Shantanu Maheshwari, Jimmy Shergill, Saiee Manjrekar
Director: Neeraj Pandey
Rating: 2.5/5
Moonfall
Director: Rolan Emmerich
Stars: Patrick Wilson, Halle Berry
Rating: 3/5
'The worst thing you can eat'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
North Pole stats
Distance covered: 160km
Temperature: -40°C
Weight of equipment: 45kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 0
Terrain: Ice rock
South Pole stats
Distance covered: 130km
Temperature: -50°C
Weight of equipment: 50kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 3,300
Terrain: Flat ice
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The biog
Mission to Seafarers is one of the largest port-based welfare operators in the world.
It provided services to around 200 ports across 50 countries.
They also provide port chaplains to help them deliver professional welfare services.
Crazy Rich Asians
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Constance Wu, Henry Golding, Michelle Yeon, Gemma Chan
Four stars
'Avengers: Infinity War'
Dir: The Russo Brothers
Starring: Chris Evans, Chris Pratt, Tom Holland, Robert Downey Junior, Scarlett Johansson, Elizabeth Olsen
Four stars
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Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinFlx%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202021%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amr%20Yussif%20(co-founder%20and%20CEO)%2C%20Mattieu%20Capelle%20(co-founder%20and%20CTO)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%20in%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20size%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%241.5m%20pre-seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Venture%20capital%20-%20Y%20Combinator%2C%20500%20Global%2C%20Dubai%20Future%20District%20Fund%2C%20Fox%20Ventures%2C%20Vector%20Fintech.%20Also%20a%20number%20of%20angel%20investors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ICC Awards for 2021
MEN
Cricketer of the Year – Shaheen Afridi (Pakistan)
T20 Cricketer of the Year – Mohammad Rizwan (Pakistan)
ODI Cricketer of the Year – Babar Azam (Pakistan)
Test Cricketer of the Year – Joe Root (England)
WOMEN
Cricketer of the Year – Smriti Mandhana (India)
ODI Cricketer of the Year – Lizelle Lee (South Africa)
T20 Cricketer of the Year – Tammy Beaumont (England)
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E680hp%20at%206%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E800Nm%20at%202%2C750-6%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERear-mounted%20eight-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E13.6L%2F100km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Orderbook%20open%3B%20deliveries%20start%20end%20of%20year%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh970%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
HOW TO WATCH
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, second leg:
Liverpool (0) v Barcelona (3), Tuesday, 11pm UAE
Game is on BeIN Sports
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
