A letter from then UK prime minister Margaret Thatcher to then USSR leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985, as the Soviet Union was entering the endgame of decline and fall, carefully outlined London's recognition that Moscow had as much right to feel secure as its western counterparts.
Tony Brenton, a former UK ambassador to Moscow, cited that missive last week as he surveyed the stakes in the Ukraine-Russia war. The ambassador's reference point of an overarching balance of interests that is decades in the making was dramatically underlined when fighting broke out around Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear energy facilities. As a fire raged around the facility, a 1980s-style scare went around the world on the possibility of a nuclear incident with far-reaching consequences.
A year after the Thatcher letter, the explosion at Ukraine’s Chernobyl plant took place. More than 35 years later, western leaders warned last week that the safety of all of Europe was directly threatened by events at a nuclear facility in that country.
Under international law, civil nuclear power plants and the peaceful development of nuclear technologies are distinct pillars from developing nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, a war involving a nuclear power has revived for many the spectre that the ultimate weapon would be used.
Escalations open the perils of miscalculation, misperception and misjudgement
TikTok is reportedly awash with videos on what to do if armageddon hoves into view. For some, it feels as if the library of Cold War information films on the “four-minute warning” should be given a modern spin. Mr Brenton noted there was an entire body of literature written during the Cold War on dealing with an actor who was not making straightforward calculations. In the first instance, nuclear weapons assume prominence earlier in the crisis than negotiators would assume.
Nuclear deterrence is built on, but not exclusively framed around, the theory of Mutually Assured Destruction. There have been some hot but localised crisis moments during the Cold War in which nuclear strategists were pressed into action. Short-range, low-yield battlefield nuclear weapons are an obvious concern in the Ukraine war. A whole of nuclear weapon fell outside the arms control treaties since the US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019.
Patricia Lewis of the London-based policy institute Chatham House issued a note on the Ukraine war that posited that Nato would respond if nuclear weapons were used in the country. She said this would be on the grounds that the impact of such weapons crosses borders. This is to say nothing of the whole new set of thinking needed for containing and reacting to cyberattack threats that trigger nuclear arsenals or create false flags.
Another academic expert Ward Wilson wrote for the London-based European Leadership Network about a root-and-branch re-examination of the theory of nuclear deterrence.
There are no clear conclusions to be drawn from previous instances of deterrence. The most obvious example is the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, when then US president John F Kennedy threatened to use military force in response to the Soviet Union’s installation of nuclear-armed missiles on the communist-run island less than 800 kilometres from Florida. There is still a split between those historians who say Kennedy was a hawk pushing for retaliation and those who believe he favoured a blockade over retaliation.
There are even doubts in some quarters that then Japanese emperor Hirohito surrendered to the US-led allied forces in 1945 as a result of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The orders given out to Japanese military two days after its surrender cited the Soviet Union entering the war against Japan – not the dropping of the "most cruel bomb" on two of its cities.
There is very little direct experience of the use of the weapon in war. On the other hand, according to Wilson, we can see the results of using artillery and missiles in an effort to break morale of a besieged population because there are plenty of examples of this type of bombing.
The effectiveness of nuclear weapons holds some keys to building adequate deterrence strategy. In the nuclear world, pretty much all there is to go on are tests and, in some senses, scenarios played out in exercises. Russia has ended some of its exercises with a tactical nuclear weapon, but when it comes to deterrence, those examples can be read two ways. Ultimately, there is psychological and emotional guessing that would underpin a nuclear stand-off. Classical deterrence is, however, focused heavily on the role of human judgement.
What if the person is flooded with anger? What if that anger recedes and rationality takes over? Can that equilibrium hold or will the anger come to the surface again? A threat to counter a potential attack might work at one hour but not the next day.
It is already known that escalations open the perils of miscalculation, misperception and misjudgement. There are no right or wrong answers, or at least, it isn’t clear what the right and wrong answers are. There are more likely just good and bad options.
For Mr Brenton, the difference is that the "Vladimir Putin I knew", who was the most single-minded, best-briefed, clear-thinking politicians on the scene, "would not have done this".
The complexity of deterrence, therefore, could not be more starkly challenged than at this moment in history.
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League quarter-final second leg:
Juventus 1 Ajax 2
Ajax advance 3-2 on aggregate
Jiu-jitsu calendar of events for 2017-2018:
August 5:
Round-1 of the President’s Cup in Al Ain.
August 11-13:
Asian Championship in Vietnam.
September 8-9:
Ajman International.
September 16-17
Asian Indoor and Martial Arts Games, Ashgabat.
September 22-24:
IJJF Balkan Junior Open, Montenegro.
September 23-24:
Grand Slam Los Angeles.
September 29:
Round-1 Mother of The Nation Cup.
October 13-14:
Al Ain U18 International.
September 20-21:
Al Ain International.
November 3:
Round-2 Mother of The National Cup.
November 4:
Round-2 President’s Cup.
November 10-12:
Grand Slam Rio de Janeiro.
November 24-26:
World Championship, Columbia.
November 30:
World Beach Championship, Columbia.
December 8-9:
Dubai International.
December 23:
Round-3 President’s Cup, Sharjah.
January 12-13:
Grand Slam Abu Dhabi.
January 26-27:
Fujairah International.
February 3:
Round-4 President’s Cup, Al Dhafra.
February 16-17:
Ras Al Khaimah International.
February 23-24:
The Challenge Championship.
March 10-11:
Grand Slam London.
March 16:
Final Round – Mother of The Nation.
March 17:
Final Round – President’s Cup.
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPowertrain%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20electric%20motor%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E201hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E310Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E53kWh%20lithium-ion%20battery%20pack%20(GS%20base%20model)%3B%2070kWh%20battery%20pack%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E350km%20(GS)%3B%20480km%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh129%2C900%20(GS)%3B%20Dh149%2C000%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
FINAL RESULT
Sharjah Wanderers 20 Dubai Tigers 25 (After extra-time)
Wanderers
Tries: Gormley, Penalty
cons: Flaherty
Pens: Flaherty 2
Tigers
Tries: O’Donnell, Gibbons, Kelly
Cons: Caldwell 2
Pens: Caldwell, Cross
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.5-litre V6
Transmission: six-speed manual
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Speed: 0-100km/h 3.9 seconds
Price: Dh230,000
On sale: now
Tips on buying property during a pandemic
Islay Robinson, group chief executive of mortgage broker Enness Global, offers his advice on buying property in today's market.
While many have been quick to call a market collapse, this simply isn’t what we’re seeing on the ground. Many pockets of the global property market, including London and the UAE, continue to be compelling locations to invest in real estate.
While an air of uncertainty remains, the outlook is far better than anyone could have predicted. However, it is still important to consider the wider threat posed by Covid-19 when buying bricks and mortar.
Anything with outside space, gardens and private entrances is a must and these property features will see your investment keep its value should the pandemic drag on. In contrast, flats and particularly high-rise developments are falling in popularity and investors should avoid them at all costs.
Attractive investment property can be hard to find amid strong demand and heightened buyer activity. When you do find one, be prepared to move hard and fast to secure it. If you have your finances in order, this shouldn’t be an issue.
Lenders continue to lend and rates remain at an all-time low, so utilise this. There is no point in tying up cash when you can keep this liquidity to maximise other opportunities.
Keep your head and, as always when investing, take the long-term view. External factors such as coronavirus or Brexit will present challenges in the short-term, but the long-term outlook remains strong.
Finally, keep an eye on your currency. Whenever currency fluctuations favour foreign buyers, you can bet that demand will increase, as they act to secure what is essentially a discounted property.
Take Me Apart
Kelela
(Warp)
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
SUCCESSION%20SEASON%204%20EPISODE%201
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreated%20by%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJesse%20Armstrong%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Brian%20Cox%2C%20Jeremy%20Strong%2C%20Kieran%20Culkin%2C%20Sarah%20Snook%2C%20Nicholas%20Braun%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Top Hundred overseas picks
London Spirit: Kieron Pollard, Riley Meredith
Welsh Fire: Adam Zampa, David Miller, Naseem Shah
Manchester Originals: Andre Russell, Wanindu Hasaranga, Sean Abbott
Northern Superchargers: Dwayne Bravo, Wahab Riaz
Oval Invincibles: Sunil Narine, Rilee Rossouw
Trent Rockets: Colin Munro
Birmingham Phoenix: Matthew Wade, Kane Richardson
Southern Brave: Quinton de Kock
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EClara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2019%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPatrick%20Rogers%2C%20Lee%20McMahon%2C%20Arthur%20Guest%2C%20Ahmed%20Arif%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELegalTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20size%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%244%20million%20of%20seed%20financing%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EWamda%20Capital%2C%20Shorooq%20Partners%2C%20Techstars%2C%20500%20Global%2C%20OTF%2C%20Venture%20Souq%2C%20Knuru%20Capital%2C%20Plug%20and%20Play%20and%20The%20LegalTech%20Fund%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
