There has been much speculation lately about whether Lebanon will go ahead with its parliamentary elections, scheduled for May. While most of the country’s major parties may have an interest in postponing the vote, the obstacles to this are very significant, suggesting that there is a better than even chance that elections will be held.
Certainly, parties such as Hezbollah and its electoral allies, the Amal Movement of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and the Free Patriotic Movement of President Michel Aoun and his son in law Gebran Bassil, might favour a delay. Amal and especially the FPM are expected to lose some seats, and therefore prefer to retain their present share in Parliament. As for Hezbollah, it controls, with its various allies, a parliamentary majority, and has no enthusiasm to see this eroded.
There are several problems with this, however. The first is that an election can only be postponed if Parliament extends its constitutional term, requiring a two-thirds majority vote. Mr Berri can probably find the numbers, but that’s unlikely to be enough, as he will also be seeking broad sectarian support as well, in order to lend national legitimacy to what is bound to be a controversial decision.
The big question mark is how the main Sunni bloc, controlled by former prime minister Saad Hariri, will vote. Mr Hariri withdrew from politics in January, in a decision widely believed in Lebanon to have been encouraged by Saudi Arabia. If he were to order his bloc to vote for extending Parliament’s term, this could be seen as a surreptitious way of trying to remain active politically, which he doubtless does not want to do.
While most of the country’s major parties may have an interest in postponing the vote, the obstacles to this are very significant
The Lebanese Forces party, an important Christian party that is seen as close to Saudi Arabia, is profoundly hostile to any extension, believing it can take many seats from the FPM. That makes the Hariri bloc’s vote in favour of an extension even more unlikely. At the same time, the former prime minister does not want to face European anger. European diplomats in Beirut warn that some EU countries may sanction parliamentarians who vote for an extension.
So, if the principal Sunni bloc and the Lebanese Forces refuse to go along with Mr Berri, this would undermine the consensus needed to make an extension acceptable nationally. And yet without guarantees of an extension, Hezbollah and Amal would have no choice but to move towards elections, to avoid a vacuum in the major state institution led by someone from their Shiite community.
The second problem is more complicated. In Lebanon, Parliament elects the president, and later this year Mr Aoun’s term will come to an end. His ambition is to see Mr Bassil succeed him. However, there are a host of problems with this scenario. First, Mr Berri is strongly opposed to it. Second, Mr Bassil is under US sanctions. And third, it’s unclear whether Hezbollah even backs a Bassil presidency today.
Were Mr Berri to begin a process of extending Parliament’s term, it is highly likely that Mr Aoun and Mr Bassil would condition their approval on a package deal that swaps FPM support for a commitment from Hezbollah and Amal to back a Bassil presidency. This would force Hezbollah’s hand at a time when it probably does not want to reveal its cards. It could also embarrass the party if no agreement is reached, by showing that it is the Shiite parties that are denying Lebanese voters a chance to vote.
Then there is international pressure. The US and European countries have regarded the elections as an important step that will allow the Lebanese to replace their corrupt leadership with more credible figures. While few expect a major earthquake, any extension would be regarded by Washington and the EU as a cynical manoeuvre by the political class to preserve its power by avoiding electoral accountability.
This may have repercussions for Lebanon’s negotiations with the International Monetary Fund. While the IMF won’t involve itself in internal Lebanese politics, for the political leadership to perpetuate itself by postponing an election would only show the institution that there is no interest in reform and renewal in the country. That could well impact how the IMF deals with the Lebanese authorities down the road.
The electoral outcome is difficult to predict. Much will depend on the participation level, since the lower the participation, the lower will be the threshold for independents and civil society figures to enter parliament. In that case, there could be surprises. This could be all the truer as so many people have no good reason to vote for their traditional sectarian leaders or parties, who have done almost nothing in two years to take Lebanon out of its dire economic situation, one of the worst on record.
But no one really expects the elections to radically redraw the Lebanese political landscape. Sectarian leaders remain strong, while Hezbollah dispenses considerable patronage, a situation that may improve if there is a windfall of Iranian revenues thanks to the nuclear deal currently being negotiated in Vienna. The party’s best option, then, may be to allow elections to go ahead, and deal with the aftermath as best it can.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Know your cyber adversaries
Cryptojacking: Compromises a device or network to mine cryptocurrencies without an organisation's knowledge.
Distributed denial-of-service: Floods systems, servers or networks with information, effectively blocking them.
Man-in-the-middle attack: Intercepts two-way communication to obtain information, spy on participants or alter the outcome.
Malware: Installs itself in a network when a user clicks on a compromised link or email attachment.
Phishing: Aims to secure personal information, such as passwords and credit card numbers.
Ransomware: Encrypts user data, denying access and demands a payment to decrypt it.
Spyware: Collects information without the user's knowledge, which is then passed on to bad actors.
Trojans: Create a backdoor into systems, which becomes a point of entry for an attack.
Viruses: Infect applications in a system and replicate themselves as they go, just like their biological counterparts.
Worms: Send copies of themselves to other users or contacts. They don't attack the system, but they overload it.
Zero-day exploit: Exploits a vulnerability in software before a fix is found.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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French business
France has organised a delegation of leading businesses to travel to Syria. The group was led by French shipping giant CMA CGM, which struck a 30-year contract in May with the Syrian government to develop and run Latakia port. Also present were water and waste management company Suez, defence multinational Thales, and Ellipse Group, which is currently looking into rehabilitating Syrian hospitals.
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Funk Wav Bounces Vol.1
Calvin Harris
Columbia
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Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
GRAN%20TURISMO
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How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
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Citizenship-by-investment programmes
United Kingdom
The UK offers three programmes for residency. The UK Overseas Business Representative Visa lets you open an overseas branch office of your existing company in the country at no extra investment. For the UK Tier 1 Innovator Visa, you are required to invest £50,000 (Dh238,000) into a business. You can also get a UK Tier 1 Investor Visa if you invest £2 million, £5m or £10m (the higher the investment, the sooner you obtain your permanent residency).
All UK residency visas get approved in 90 to 120 days and are valid for 3 years. After 3 years, the applicant can apply for extension of another 2 years. Once they have lived in the UK for a minimum of 6 months every year, they are eligible to apply for permanent residency (called Indefinite Leave to Remain). After one year of ILR, the applicant can apply for UK passport.
The Caribbean
Depending on the country, the investment amount starts from $100,000 (Dh367,250) and can go up to $400,000 in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take between four to five months to receive a passport.
Portugal
The investment amount ranges from €350,000 to €500,000 (Dh1.5m to Dh2.16m) in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take a maximum of six months to receive a Golden Visa. Applicants can apply for permanent residency after five years and Portuguese citizenship after six years.
“Among European countries with residency programmes, Portugal has been the most popular because it offers the most cost-effective programme to eventually acquire citizenship of the European Union without ever residing in Portugal,” states Veronica Cotdemiey of Citizenship Invest.
Greece
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Greece is €250,000, making it the cheapest real estate residency visa scheme in Europe. You can apply for residency in four months and citizenship after seven years.
Spain
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Spain is €500,000. You can apply for permanent residency after five years and citizenship after 10 years. It is not necessary to live in Spain to retain and renew the residency visa permit.
Cyprus
Cyprus offers the quickest route to citizenship of a European country in only six months. An investment of €2m in real estate is required, making it the highest priced programme in Europe.
Malta
The Malta citizenship by investment programme is lengthy and investors are required to contribute sums as donations to the Maltese government. The applicant must either contribute at least €650,000 to the National Development & Social Fund. Spouses and children are required to contribute €25,000; unmarried children between 18 and 25 and dependent parents must contribute €50,000 each.
The second step is to make an investment in property of at least €350,000 or enter a property rental contract for at least €16,000 per annum for five years. The third step is to invest at least €150,000 in bonds or shares approved by the Maltese government to be kept for at least five years.
Candidates must commit to a minimum physical presence in Malta before citizenship is granted. While you get residency in two months, you can apply for citizenship after a year.
Egypt
A one-year residency permit can be bought if you purchase property in Egypt worth $100,000. A three-year residency is available for those who invest $200,000 in property, and five years for those who purchase property worth $400,000.
Source: Citizenship Invest and Aqua Properties
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
RACE CARD
5pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (Turf) 2,200m
5.30pm: Khor Al Baghal – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
6pm: Khor Faridah – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
7pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
7.30pm: Khor Laffam – Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m
A cryptocurrency primer for beginners
Cryptocurrency Investing for Dummies – by Kiana Danial
There are several primers for investing in cryptocurrencies available online, including e-books written by people whose credentials fall apart on the second page of your preferred search engine.
Ms Danial is a finance coach and former currency analyst who writes for Nasdaq. Her broad-strokes primer (2019) breaks down investing in cryptocurrency into baby steps, while explaining the terms and technologies involved.
Although cryptocurrencies are a fast evolving world, this book offers a good insight into the game as well as providing some basic tips, strategies and warning signs.
Begin your cryptocurrency journey here.
Available at Magrudy’s , Dh104
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 1 Chelsea 0
De Bruyne (70')
Man of the Match: Kevin de Bruyne (Manchester City)
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%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20S%20Frederick%20Starr%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Oxford%20University%20Press%3Cbr%3EPages%3A%20290%3Cbr%3EAvailable%3A%20January%2024%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Racecard
5pm: Al Maha Stables – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,600m
6pm: Emirates Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m
6.30pm: Emirates Colts Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m
7pm: The President’s Cup – Group 1 (PA) Dh2,500,000 (T) 2,200m
7.30pm: The President’s Cup – Listed (TB) Dh380,000 (T) 1,400m
India team for Sri Lanka series
Test squad: Rohit Sharma (captain), Priyank Panchal, Mayank Agarwal, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, Hanuma Vihari, Shubhman Gill, Rishabh Pant (wk), KS Bharath (wk), Ravindra Jadeja, Jayant Yadav, Ravichandran Ashwin, Kuldeep Yadav, Sourabh Kumar, Mohammed Siraj, Umesh Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Jasprit Bumrah.
T20 squad: Rohit Sharma (captain), Ruturaj Gaikwad, Shreyas Iyer, Surya Kumar Yadav, Sanju Samson, Ishan Kishan (wk), Venkatesh Iyer, Deepak Chahar, Deepak Hooda, Ravindra Jadeja, Yuzvendra Chahal, Ravi Bishnoi, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Siraj, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Harshal Patel, Jasprit Bumrah, Avesh Khan
